Clinton 46% Obama 25% Edwards 11%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm



Don't shoot me ...I'm just the messenger :(

[Skink]

1. Now maybe the Dems will do what they do best during the primaries...

This way Richardson will get the nomination and can then pick Kucinich for VP.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Bill Richardson Seems Like A Nice Fella

Bill Richardson seems like a nice fella but I don't think his presidential candidacy is going to have a glorious end...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Adjusted Figures (probable, with Gore factor accounted for):

AP/IPSOS seems to have decided to keep Gore in this polling set for consistency. Fortunately we have enough other polling (including other AP/IPSOS sets) to know where Gore's support goes.

Oddly, Gore's support does not skew for any candidate. It is divided in direct proportion to candidate's current support--most goes to Clinto, next most to Obama, etc.. (This is not my theory. It's a fact. I find it surprising, but it's been confirmed a zillion times in polls that ask both ways)

So, without Gore these numbers work out to Clinton 48%, Obama 23%, Edwards 14%. (The following post shows that I am wrong. It is 46-25-11, but I will not edit out my error because I desrve to pay for being such a lazy dumass!)

This suggests that the Washington Post poll was an outlier (as everyone knew) but not by much.

Today's poll confirms a solid (7%) Clinton move in the last 7-10 days, with the move coming from a combination of Dems switching from Obama and previous undecideds picking Clinton for the first time.

Edwards support stays steady, and no moves in the lower tier.

[Adelante]

7. Clinton 46, +4; Obama 25, +5; Edwards 11 +2 (w/out Gore)

If you scroll down a bit you see it.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. Doh! Sorry. Good for Obama, then! That's the first time I've seen less Gore go to Hill

Still within the ballpark, though. One would expect a slice of Gore support to go to Kuccinich, but apparantly not so much.

[Adelante]

13. Definitely in the ballpark and could easily shift nt

[Carrieyazel]

18. Hopefully continued coverage of Hillary's laugh, brings her down about 7-10 points by Oct. 20

[durrrty libby]

4. No ammo from me.

Have you seen this. Intrade Presidential Market


http://news.yahoo.com/s/intrade/20071005/pl_intrade/intrade_news_2007100529_1



Clinton's current price of 43.9 is down 1.6 points from last weeks value of 45.5. None of her rivals for the presidency were able to make up any significant ground on the market leader however.
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Rudy Giuliani recorded only a modest gain, with his current price of 16.2 a 0.4 point increase from last weeks value of 15.8. Fred Thompson saw a reversal of last week's gains by suffering a decline in value this week. The former Senator from Tennessee is currently trading at 9.0, which is down 0.6 points from last weeks price of 9.6.

Barack Obama also saw downward movement in his price this week. His current value of 7.9 is a 0.4 point slip from last weeks price of 8.3 and represents his lowest value since Nov '06. These movements give Clinton a comfortable 27.7 point lead at the head of the field. This is down 2.0 points from the 29.7 point lead she held last week.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. If I Understand It

Hillary's about a 2-3 favorite, Rudy's a 6-1 dog, and Freddy's a 6-1 dog...

That seems about right, as of now...

[durrrty libby]

8. Yes that seems right. There is a famous Irish betting site, and the

names escapes me, has Hillary as the 2 to 1 bet, far ahead of everyone else.

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Hart, Tsongas, and Dean Agree - Hillary's Unstoppable!!!

:rofl:

[durrrty libby]

9. Sure sure Manny. Whatever gets you through the night

[MonkeyFunk]

11. boy, that NEVER gets old

But the fact is, she's doing far better than any other candidate, and no candidate in an open primary with her kind of lead has lost the nomination in many, many years.

[durrrty libby]

12. His shtick is definitely old. Whew. Had to fix the spelling on that

Haha I almost typed stick.:blush:

[MannyGoldstein]

16. Link Or Slink

"no candidate in an open primary with her kind of lead has lost the nomination in many, many years."

(Incumbents don't count)

Funny - I recall that Dean had a substantially larger lead. But you'll show me different, no doubt! Not the typical "yeah, the lead was bigger but Hillary is different! She doesn't have male genitalia (or whatever), so obviously those other examples are different".

[MonkeyFunk]

20. Why don't you show ME

where Dean ever had such a commanding lead?

[MonkeyFunk]

21. You can't show me?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Show me in there where Dean ever lead the pack by >30% or where he ever broke 50%.

[MannyGoldstein]

22. Google Is Your Friend

Well, it's *my* friend anyway.

For example, see: http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_03_1208.pdf , which also contains this amusing tidbit:

"67% of likely Democratic primary voters thinking Dean will win this primary"

Oh, and this, from http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/05/elec04.poll.democrats.poll/index.html : "But Dean clobbers the opposition in "what-if" head-to-head pairings with his strongest rivals: Dean over Lieberman, 50 percent to 32 percent; Dean over Kerry 51 percent to 29 percent; Dean over Gephardt 53 percent to 28 percent."

And this, from The Economst: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls/main589167.shtml

"Al Gore makes Howard Dean awfully hard to beat in the race for the Democratic nomination

THE primary season has not even begun and Howard Dean is beginning to look unstoppable. He powered to the front of the Democratic pack by railing against the Democratic establishment. Now a portion of that establishment is responding by rallying behind Dr Dean."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. You're Comparing Apples With Oranges

Since there are no polls of Clinton in head- to -head parings with her rivals your link is worthless...

The only valid comparisons are Hillary against the field polls on any given time in the pre-primary season and Candidate X against the field in any pre-primary season...

[MonkeyFunk]

25. how disingenuous

They're not at all what I asked for.

But nice try.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

24. Very good point

A lot of ppl are acting like Clinton is an incumbent. She is not.

[calteacherguy]

14. What's funny is that so many keep making that invalid comparison. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Two Types Of People Never Change Their Opinion In Light Of New Facts

The dead and the _ _ _ _ _ _

[Moloch]

17. Wow. A truly pathetic showing for Edwards...

especially when he has the highest non-Hillary name recognition. He should really throw in the towel before he embarasses himself.

Obama isn't doing much better :(

[Catchawave]

19. Actually, he's doing better than most noms

...at this point in their primary campaign :evilgrin: