Edwards is the only candidate that will enable us to fight in states like Oklahoma and Kentucky:

[Tejanocrat]

Here is the most recent SurveyUSA head-to-head polling in Oklahoma:

EDWARDS CRUSHES ALL TOP REPUBLICANS -

32% Romney
53% Edwards

40% Giuliani
49% Edwards

41% Fred Thompson
47% Edwards

HILLARY LOSES TO GIULIANI AND THOMPSON BUT BEATS ROMNEY -

47% Giuliani
44% Clinton

50% Fred Thompson
44% Clinton

44% Romney
47% Clinton

ALL TOP REPUBLICANS CRUSH OBAMA -

54% Giuliani
33% Obama

55% Fred Thompson
35% Obama

46% Romney
40% Obama



Here is the most recent SurveyUSA head-to-head polling in Kentucky (where all three of our top candidates lose to Giuliani, but Edwards is the most competitive):

EDWARDS BEATS THOMPSON AND ROMNEY -

44% Fred Thompson
45% Edwards

38% Romney
48% Edwards

HILLARY LOSES TO THOMPSON AND TIES ROMNEY -

50% Fred Thompson
45% Clinton

46% Romney
46% Clinton

OBAMA LOSES TO THOMPSON AND ROMNEY -

54% Fred Thompson
37% Obama

45% Romney
43% Obama



These numbers illustrate what some of us on the ground in the South see as our basis for concluding that only Edwards makes this a 50 state race.


(NB - Edited to add Kentucky).

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Treason! Heresy!

Didn't you get the memo? Only Hillary can win... :sarcasm:

[Hieronymus]

4. It's amazing the number that's been done on some people ..

Many of us believe that Edwards has the better chance of winning. One who I respect immensely is Thom Hartmann. Hillary has very high negatives.

[Beaverhausen]

2. I agree that he can do better in the so-called "red" states

We know they are all really different shades of purple anyway.

I think his message can resonate everywhere.

[Inspired]

3. An electable progressive.

Wake up Democrats!

[Mass]

5. Edwards's message seems more and more progressive everyday:

Vote for me because half of the country is sexist and racist. This is a message I would be proud to support.

:sarcasm:

[Stop Cornyn]

6. You PRETEND it is sexism and racism, but the South has elected many women and racial minorities.

Edwards and his populist-progressive message does well in the South for reasons beyond his race and is gender.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Outside Of Doug Wilder I Don't Think The South Has Elected An African American Governor Or Senator

Since Reconstruction

[Tejanocrat]

9. That's true of most states. Only Illinois, Massachusetts, and Virginia have elected black Senators

or Governors since the Reconstruction.

It's shameful, but let's not pretend that this shame is uniquely Southern.

[Carolina]

11. But sadly

it's true. A very large segment of this nation is racist and sexist and will not put a woman or a Black man (especially one named Barack Hussein Obama) in charge of the military. It's that simple ... I am a Black woman and I am truly waiting still for the great White Male hope to emerge for Dems in this next election. So I am not speaking as an Edwards supporter.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. That Doesn't Seem Likely

It's most likely going to be Hillay or Barack...

What will be will be...

[Carolina]

15. Then we lose

if either of them is the nominee. That's what will be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Why

Do you know if you add up Jews, Asians, African Americans ,Hispanics, single women, gays and lesbians, and Hispanics you get near forty percent of the electorate?


Get ninety percent of them you can probably lose the rest 60-40 or even a bit worse...


This country is no longer a white man's social club...

[Carolina]

20. 40% ain't victory

and you're presuming they'll all vote Dem.

There are log cabin gays
Dem-hating Cuban Hispanics
Sleeza, Colon (typo intended) type Blacks
Repuke Jews (Bill Kristol, Paul Wolfowitz ...)
etc, etc, etc.

And in the SOUTH there are simply congenital republicans

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. OK

70% of Jews will vote Democratic... 90%of African Americans will vote Democratic...70% of Hispanics will vote Democratic...70% of gays will vote Democratic...65% of Asians will vote Democratic... 75% of single women will vote Democratic.... And so on... The Dems only need to get around 37% of the white vote to win...That's doable...

If the capital of the Confederacy (Richmond) can send an African American to the State House we can send an African American man or a white woman to the White House...

[gateley]

14. I waver back and forth between agreeing with your statement and disagreeing.

I sometimes feel I'm being unfair in believing the majority of people would be hesitant to go with Hillary or Obama, but at other times, for example when those R's opted to not participate in Tavis's debate, I realize it's a far uglier reality than I can comprehend. For that reason alone, I would love to see Clinton or Obama win the Presidency - to give me hope for the American people - even though I support a different candidate.

[Carolina]

17. uglier than you realize

I'm Black, born in the days of the one drop rule, segregation and all that. But my lineage is very mixed (some family members passed back in the day) and I'm fair with straight hair so I blend. I say this to say that you cannot imagine the things I hear and that are said to me or in my presence...

A black man will not be elected in my lifetime.

And HRC. A lightning rod for GOP loathing. I might live to see a woman elected but she's not the right one.

Sorry to be such a downer. I wish I had your hope. We Dems need a WHITE MALE fighter!

[gateley]

19. Not to be self-serving, but Biden entered politics lo those many years ago

because of his desire to work for civil rights. I think he would appeal to a larger group of people than Edwards, and I honestly believe his heart is in the right place.

I moved to NC from Seattle 5 years ago and realized I was biased against Southerners because I assumed they were all racist. I found that not to be the case, and that they are some of the finest people I've ever met. However, I also learned that some of them keep those views from ME because of my Northern and admittedly liberal views.

I was coming back from lunch one day with three people. The driver, and two devout bible-thumping Christians in the back seat. There was a car moving slowly past the driveway to our office building, and the driver said "hurry up, N-word". She looked over and apologized to me. I thought it was interesting that it was apparently okay to speak and feel that way in front of the Christians, but not in front of me.

So even though I'm here in the South I still can't even determine the depth of racism and good ol' boy thinking (which would preclude a woman from becoming Prez).

So look into Biden and see if he could be your white male fighter. I hope he is, for you, and for the person I want him to be.

[Carolina]

23. actually

the race theme is not solely, or even especially, a southern issue or problem. Boston was a hotbed of racism and my southern husband (why I live in the south) was called 'nigger' not in his home state but in Maryland! My one encounter with the KKK (scared the shit out of me) was also in Maryland.

That's my point about racism. It simmers under the surface EVERYWHERE.

As for a woman president, I think it's HRC particularly rather than gender generally. Still the sexism is there. Picture an ad featuring HRC surrounded by a host of servicemen or male generals with the caption or voice over saying: Do you really trust HER with OUR MILITARY, OUR NATIONAL SECURITY?!

Anyway, hi neighbor :hi:

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Liked Your Missive...

I'll bet your Hitlary remark disappears...

Let's see...

[PurityOfEssence]

13. Edwards almost beat Clark in the Oklahoma primary in '04

The difference was less than four tenths of a percent, a mere 1,216 votes; Kerry took third.

It's an interesting state for a number of reasons, and they like him there.

[Hippo_Tron]

16. Oklahoma won't be competitive

Giuliani aside, the GOP field lacks name recognition right now and that is showing in the polls. It won't be that way after the nominees are chosen.

[w4rma]

22. It won't be competitive with Hillary or Obama at the top of the ticket. But, it IS competitive with

Edwards at the top of the ticket.

And, really, all Edwards needs to do is to force the GOP to waste money shoring up states that they wouldn't otherwise spend money in. That is key in presidential electoral tactics.

[Hippo_Tron]

29. Oklahoma hasn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson

And the Democrats can't even field a competitive candidate against batshit insane Inhofe. Maybe Edwards could get 45% in Oklahoma at the most, but that's not enough for the GOP to start spending money there.

[Tejanocrat]

36. Andrew Rice is an awesome candidate who will give Crazy Inhofe a fight. I live next to Oklahoma so

I travel there and have friends there. The polling, my experience, and the views of everyone I know in Oklahoma all say Edwards would be compitive there.

What makes you think Oklahomans will favor Giuliani or Romney over Edwards?

[Hippo_Tron]

38. The fact that Oklahoma hasn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson

Bush won the state with 65% in 2004 and Coburn wound up beating Carson by a much wider margin than expected. The last Democratic Senator David Boren was hardly a reliable Democratic vote on much of anything. Clinton lost there by about 8 points both times and without Perot it probably would've been a wider margin.

The state is extremely conservative and has become more conservative since Clinton ran. True, the Republicans won't turn out in as high numbers for Rudy or Romney but they will still turn out. Again Edwards might be able to get 45% at the most but it won't be competitive.

[Tejanocrat]

40. Tester won in Montana in '06, and Montana was as "red" as Oklahoma. Wyoming's "redder" than Oklahoma

and Gary Trauner came within 1000 votes of beating Barbara Cubin (he'll beat her this time).

We're more competitive in Oklahoma than you think.

Texas is still a couple years away from electing a Democrat to statewide office, but it could happen in Oklahoma in '08.

[Hippo_Tron]

43. Statewide and presidential are a different ball game

[sampsonblk]

24. ...so what?

If we had to choose, let's choose a candidate who can win in the states that actually have electoral votes. I am all for the 50-state strategy, but not for a strategy of forsaking our traditional states for ones that we might be able to get if we try hard enough.

Bird in the hand / two in the bush.

We are in good shape if we just pick a good nominee, and stick to what we believe in as a party, and don't apologize for a damn thing. Then we win in a landslide.

[Cameron27]

25. Yep

:toast:

[gateley]

27. And I second that yep. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Some People Are So Scared Of The Republicans They Must Sleep With The Lights On

I do too but for a different reason...

I have an active bladder...

PEACE

DSB

[w4rma]

28. If we would be forsaking any traditional states your argument might hold water. But, alas we aren't.

Edwards makes every state more competitive.

[sampsonblk]

30. We agree on the 'if'

If a candidate is going to deviate from our core principles to win in a non-traditional Dem state, then I say no way. Ask Harold Ford how that worked out for him.

[w4rma]

32. The GOP wasted resources in Tennessee on Ford, which helped Dems win the Virginia seat. (nt)

[sampsonblk]

35. What does that have to do with adhering to principles?

[w4rma]

44. Principles? Not only is Edwards the most electable, hes the most progressive. Best of both worlds.nt

[Carrieyazel]

31. Oklahoma and Kentucky are both way out of play in 2008 for us.

No Democrat could win them next year. We lost both by what 20+ points last time?

[Tejanocrat]

34. In Oklahoma and Kentucky, Inhofe's and McConnell's approval ratings are under 50%. I'd rank both

Senate seats as one of our dozen best chances at picking up a Senate seat (I'm not saying that either Oklahoma or Kentucky is leaning toward a Democratic pick up like Colorado, New Hampshire, or Virginia but we have a fighting chance like we had in Virginia and Montana in '06).

[MasonJar]

33. I do NOT know about Oklahoma, but I am in Kentucky and we are

pretty fed up with the GOPers here. Mitch will be running unfortunately, which may hurt any dem pres candidate, but even Mitch is not so popular right now. The dems are probably going to get the statehouse back next month, which will help a little in the cheating department. I am hoping that Kentucky is ready to become democratic again.

[zulchzulu]

37. Kentucky has 8 and Oklahoma has 7 electoral college votes

Not exactly the most powerful of states to have to win...

Also, there are too many open-ended possible situations to honestly predict what will happen in the election that's more than a year away.

http://usgovinfo.about.com/blelectoralb.htm

[1932]

41. What was the Republican margin of victory the last two elections?

[Tejanocrat]

42. But Hillary won't even campaign in the South (and she'd probably hurt the ticket if she did) and

that is bad for party re-building and bad for our down-ballot tickets in the South.

Edwards will run in 50 states; Hillary will skip the South between Florida and Arkansas and the much of the interior West.

I'm not saying she can't win; I'm saying she can't compete in so many states that she'll cut them loose and perpetuate the "red-blue" divide instead of following Dean's 50 state strategy that was so successful in '06.

[tkmorris]

39. I think you are absolutely correct, BUT

There are people who will not cast a vote for someone on that basis alone, and I respect that.