Markos: How the Edwards gambit *could* work

[Catchawave]

:D Guess we're cleaning up the Timmy mess, thank you Kos :)


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/10/8/133528/808

by kos
Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 02:46:03 PM EDT

So it's no secret that I think Edwards' decision to take public money in the primaries -- while advantageous for the primary -- is a disaster for our 2008 chances if he garnered the nomination. Why? Because Edwards would essentially be broke through the summer, until the convention in late August.

But this line of reasoning assumes that in presidential politics, the "general election" begins after the nominee is crowned at the convention. And I've realized that this is quite the assumption.

In House and Senate races, the "general election" begins the day after the primary election. The reason is obvious -- that single election determines the winner. If we had a national primary, that might also be the case. But we don't. We have states voting all over the place, beginning with Iowa (maybe) on January 14, and ending with South Dakota wrapping things up on June 3rd.

But in reality, we know the winner long before then. And unless we have the unlikely "brokered convention" (as exciting as that might be for us political junkies), fact is we'll probably know with certainty our nominee by late February at the latest.

I've been fighting through FEC regulations, and I've found nothing that states the convention is necessary for a party to declare a nominee. A nominee is a nominee when the party declares it so to the FEC. And I admit I could be misreading this thing terribly, but as far as I can tell, the National Conventions truly are nothing more than a formality.

So here's the way Edwards could theoretically be viable in the general even while taking public financing in the primary:



He wins big in the early states and cleans up on Feb. 5.


The rest of the candidates drop out, so he's the only candidate.


The DNC holds a meeting (with all its delegates) and formally recognizes Edwards as the nominee.


This one is important -- Edwards opts out of public financing in the General.


Money flows like water, and then Edwards can truly run on "ideas" knowing that 1) he'll have the money to deliver those ideas to voters, and 2) beat back the inevitable swiftboating efforts.
Of course, Edwards would be accused of hypocrisy by opting out of the general election public financing regime, especially since they've already stated that 1) Edwards opted in out of "principle", and 2) they'll opt in the general if the Republican nominee does as well. But whatever. No one cares about that sort of thing anyway. And he could always impose voluntary contribution limits like $250 to continue playing the "populist" card.

I could be all wrong about this. It really all boils down to when the "general election" begins, and whether the DNC would be able to declare it "begun" before the convention. Hopefully, people who know this stuff can clarify one way or another.

[MonkeyFunk]

1. LOL

I guess, technically, all that COULD happen. But I wouldn't bet on it.

[Cameron27]

2. That's a lot of theoreticals.

"He wins big in the early states and cleans up on Feb. 5.

The rest of the candidates drop out, so he's the only candidate.

The DNC holds a meeting (with all its delegates) and formally recognizes Edwards as the nominee.

This one is important -- Edwards opts out of public financing in the General."


I don't think any but the last is a probablity.

[smalll]

4. Well, if Hillary gets sick and dies, and Obama gets caught in

a Senate washroom stall with Joe Biden (they DID take the AIDS test together! OMG!) and Bill Richardson turns out to be an illegal alien, Dodd beats Kucinich into a coma and has to suspend his campaign due to incarceration and Mike Gravel takes a turn for the worse and has to be committed, it could happen. :shrug:

[benny05]

3. Edwards has said he would opt for PF

For the Primaries for now.

From David Bonior:

Make no mistake – we are taking a principled stand on this issue. John Edwards believes the best thing and the right thing would be to operate the campaign under the public financing rules for the entire presidential campaign. But he also understands that almost none of the Republican candidates share this commitment. Accordingly, we will continue to raise money for the general election so we will be ready to compete against the Republican nominee.

Once we win the nomination, John will challenge the Republican nominee to join him in accepting public financing. Quite frankly, it’s a fight we’d welcome. If they refuse, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it and make the decision at that time about whether to accept public financing. But you can be sure that we will run a campaign that is aggressive, adequately funded, and successful.

I hope everyone will opt for PF in the general, but Edwards is realistic that Re-thugs won't do it.

Yeah, looks like Kos is retreating a bit here.

[Catchawave]

5. I trust David :)

I think Kos got caught off guard when Timmy referred to an Obama supporter for talking points on MTP yesterday.

Just proves how lazy the MSM has gotten.

[waiting for hope]

6. Timmeh!

Heh.

Somewhat of a back handed turnaround?

[Catchawave]

7. OT: I have a special place in my heart for Timmy

A turtle rescue I named after Mr. Russert because of the resemblance:



A southeastern "cooter" :)

[waiting for hope]

8. I like that Timmy -

Thank you for sharing! :)

[Catchawave]

9. You're welcome :)

Funny how I relate to the MSM through reptiles. No offense to reptiles :silly:

[maximusveritas]

10. He just posted an update; apparently, it can't work

Update: JR in the comments found a hole in my reasoning:

My understanding of Article 2, section 3 of the DNC charter and bylaws is that only the Convention, "the highest authority of the Democratic Party," can declare the party's nominee for President:

Section 3

The National Convention shall nominate a candidate for the office of President of the United States, nominate a candidate for the office of Vice President of the United States, adopt a platform and act upon such other matters as it deems appropriate.

I think that precludes a pre-convention meeting doing anything similar.

Hmm, it looks like this shoots down the whole premise of this post. The DNC could amend their bylaws or something, but now we're starting to get into pretty far-fetched territory.

[geek tragedy]

11. Rube Goldberg would call that convoulted.

Kos has since pointed out that it wouldn't work at all.

[ChiciB1]

12. I'm Somewhat Confused Here... Kos Does Damage & THEN Kos

tries to do what?? As for MSM, seems to me that THEY are beating only ONE DRUM!

Not for nothing AND regardless of what others here say, the really SAD thing is that what MSM says is ALL that far too many people even hear!!

While Obama raises lots and lots of money, and Edwards leads in contributions through ActBlue, how is it that Hillary Clinton is at 53%??

It's obvious she's not MY choice and I realize there ARE some extremely AVID Clinton supporters here, but I'm really bothered by the fact that she's been "anointed" somehow! I keep wondering what the OTHER candidates must be thinking. It really seems very unfair.

I would like to think that those of us who support someone else could at least be given the courtesy of making up OUR minds also. With the way things are going now, February is MUCH TOO SOON to KNOW who the candidate will be! It's not a stretch to see that WE are supposed to simply sit down, shut up and go away!

Why some don't see this as offensive is beyond my comprehension, and any comments made about this situation either garners an attack upon us, or someone else says that because of how WE feel, it only makes THEM MORE supportive of Clinton! That WE are the trouble makers and shame on us for even thinking otherwise.

Seems like a Democratic process is out of the question, and for many it turns them away from even getting involved. Oh well, why should I wonder, I live in Florida... I should have learned by now how these things go down!! Seems like a disgrace to me though!