Prediction: Who will win Iowa? Please give us your numbers.

[Colobo]

Poll question: Prediction: Who will win Iowa? Please give us your numbers.

Use your best JUDGEMENT, not your desires, to predict this. It should be fun and whoever wins should get a prize.

Again, who you prefer is IRRELEVANT. Use your experience to predict this.

[gateley]

1. What do you mean by "win". The number one vote getter? nt

[Colobo]

2. Yes.

[gateley]

5. Okay thanks - now I'll give it some thought. This is tough! nt

[rwheeler31]

3. He knows these people.

[Colobo]

4. Who does?

[Peggy Day]

6. Where's Kucinich and Gore? nt

[Colobo]

7. They are not there because

Kucinich is not organized in Iowa, neither is Gravel and Gore is not running.

[Colobo]

8. C'mon, guys, predictions! I know we have some good political gurus over here!

[rurallib]

9. Edwards 30%

Obama 26%
Richardson 18%
Clinton 17%
undeclared 9%

[Colobo]

10. Those are beautiful numbers!

[rurallib]

18. I actually have a reason to say that too

Stayed tuned to Jan. 3rd or Jan. 14 when we'uns caucus

[Colobo]

19. I'll be watchin'!

[AtomicKitten]

11. I have it on good authority it will be Obama by a nose!

[Hippo_Tron]

12. I don't make predictions this early on

Expectations are far too important and that's something we can't predict.

[Colobo]

13. C'mon... it's a game.

[Hippo_Tron]

14. If the Iowa Caucus were held today I'd say it's too close to call

But if I absolutely had to lean toward anyone it's Edwards because he's been there nonstop for two years.

[calteacherguy]

15. Honestly, it's hard to say. But I think the odds strongly favor Clinton. nt

[Colobo]

16. Don't underestimate Obama's superb organization and

Edwards's appeal among Iowans.

[CK_John]

17. Clinton 41%, Edwards 28%, Obama 18%, others 13%. n/t

[saltpoint]

20. Look. I suck at math. Just ask my 7th grade math teacher, may she rest in

peace.

Ok. Subject to change for many reasons, my current breakdown is:

John Edwards -- 24 %
Joe Biden -- 21%
Barack Obama -- 19%
Bill Richardson -- 13%
Hillary Clinton -- 13%
Chris Dodd -- 6%
Dennis Kucinich -- 3%
Mike Gravel -- < 1%

[Colobo]

21. Biden 2nd? Wow. Interesting prediction!

[saltpoint]

22. Hi, Katzenkavalier.

My numbers are skewed because I don't know why Chris Dodd hasn't spent the upwards-of-9-million smackers he has in the kitty.

If I sensed that he was going to really go whole-hog into this race, I'd have to reshuffle those numbers.

In 04 the numbers were spread out much more, with Kerry on top in the mid-to-high thirties at I think 37%, John Edwards next at 33%, then Howard Dean at 17% and Dick Gephardt at 11%.

It was Gephardt's last race, falling from first to 11% -- one of the biggest slides in a few months in policital history by a nationally-known and well-supported candidate.

This year I don't think we'll see that spread-out differential. I think Edwards, Obama, Biden are all positioned to win Iowa, although for different reasons, and that the difference between the three top placers will be less than the total between Kerry and Edwards in 04. Very close, and it could swing to any of the 3 to win with the other two breathing down their necks.

Richardson can't be counted out, but I don't see him placing ahead of the other three, but maybe tied or slightly ahead of Sen. Clinton.

If Al Gore holds a press conference next weekend, my numbers are going to be scrambled.

[Colobo]

23. Interesting assessment. I just hope we can see a Gephardt once again

in the person of... :)

[saltpoint]

24. It's odd about Gephardt. I thought in spring of 03 that there was no

stopping him. He was a neighbor of Iowans -- next state over. He'd won the thing there once before. People knew him and liked him. He was tall. He had freckles.

And he was leaading handsomely with colloquial vibe.

And he was buried, just a few weeks later. Dean overtook him, and then Kerry and Edwards overtook them both.

The odd thing I'm getting with Gephardt is that he could re-emerge as our 08 vice presidential nominee.

Not a prediction and not even a hunch. But there's that flickering odd impulse that says he would balance a lot of tickets, no matter who our nominee is. Obama and Gephardt. Edwards/Gephardt. Richardson/Gephardt. Biden/Gephardt. And so forth.

Missouri would be a more comfortable fight if Dick Gephardt were on the ticket. Gep isn't my first choice for veep, but he's far from the last.

[Colobo]

25. Gephardt as VP? Hmm...

Sounds good!

[saltpoint]

27. On Senator Obama: 'am told by close friends in Madison that Obama's

appearance there on Monday, the 15th of this month, had to be relocated from the initial venue to a larger hall owing to fierce ticket demand.

What an excellent problem to have!

Evidently a new location has been chosen and still the tickets are flying out of the booking office. So all the yapping on DU and elsewhere that Obama is "fading" appears to me to be so much codswallop.

Two weeks ago -- Obama's appearance in lower Manhattan was very respectfully covered by the New York TIMES. From that account and from others who are long-standing Democratic associates in NYC, Obama thrilled that very large crowd half to death in that appearance. One friend described it as "an electric connection."

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. Obama 38, Clinton 34, Edwards 10, Richardson 8

All non-Hillary candidates except Obama collapse. Two person race right out of the gate.

(Also Romney 25, Huckabee 21, McCain 13, Guliani 13, Thompson 10... a train wreck with no candidate showing a clear advantage through the first several states.)

[JCMach1]

28. Hillary 31%, Edwards 30%, Obama 24%

It is important to note that Jesse Jackson never got to double digits in Iowa

[Freddie Stubbs]

29. Too close to call at this point

Hillary has a slight lead, but Obama and Edwards are in striking distance.

[wyldwolf]

30. My earlier prediction still stands

Edwards wins a squeeker, Hillary close second, Obama third.

Edwards rides that momentum into New Hampshire and finishes a second to Hillary.

[LWolf]

31. I predict that the poll is incomplete, lol. n/t