Clinton leading in new primary and general election polls in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

[DeepModem Mom]

CNN: October 10, 2007
Clinton leading in three new polls

WASHINGTON (CNN) – A new set of state polls out Wednesday shows Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, leading her Democratic rivals for the presidential nomination and edging out potential Republican opponents in a general election match-up.

Quinnipiac University polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania mirror trends seen recently in national polls. Clinton edges out former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in general election match-ups in those states, with a slightly increased advantage since a round of polls last month. Clinton leads Giuliani in Florida 46 percent - 43 percent — the two were tied in September. The New York senator tops the former New York City mayor by six points in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The polls' margin of error is just over 3 percent.

The state surveys also indicate Clinton would handily win the Democratic primaries in those states if the contests were held today. How influential these states turn out to be in the race for the Democratic nomination remains in question. Florida will hold its primary on January 29th, a decision that has caused incredible consternation for national Democrats since Sunshine State Democrats are violating party rules by holding their contest prior to February 5th.

All Democratic candidates have pledged not to actively campaign there and whether Florida Democrats will actually be able to seat delegates at next year's party convention remains in question. Ohio holds its primary on February 5th and Pennsylvania Democrats won't vote until April.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/10/10/clinton-leading-in-3-new-polls/

[NoodleBoy]

1. wow, 6 points in Pennsylvania, and Ohio

Jeez, if a poll came out showing Kerry winning in Ohio by the same margin as he was winning in Pennsylvania, the pollster's brain would be checked for damage.

[Eric J in MN]

11. Maybe Giuliani being from the Northeast makes him do better in PA

...than Bush, who was governor of Texas.

[journalist3072]

2. I really hope to see her raise her hand & take the oath on January 20, 2009 at high noon

She's more than ready.

[Divine Discontent]

3. I really hope not. There's several other I prefer.

I just don't like war... is all. She seems itching for her own battles.

[journalist3072]

4. Translation: You think she's a warmonger. And I belive your assumption is dead wrong.

[Divine Discontent]

8. It didn't take much for me to assimilate 2+2 & see the green light given to B*sh

to invade Iraq was a horribly incompetent mistake. She hasn't apologized for it. Until she does, I call it as I see it. She also voted for the Kyl-Lieberman stinker which starts paving the way to declaring Iran a threatening rogue state so we can make Halliburton another couple billion... I respect you're saying my assumption is wrong, I pray you're right!

later friend

[Cameron27]

5. Thanks for the stats DM Mom,

and thanks for searching for all the good stories that you post. I don't think I've ever said that, but it's very much appreciated. :thumbsup:

[DeepModem Mom]

7. Thank YOU, seasonedblue! nt

[Ethelk2044]

6. None of the Candidates have started Politicking in PA, OH and FL yet.

That is to be expected. It is name recognition.

[tyedyeto]

9. When has any poll showed her as being anything other than the frontrunner.....

since the weekend after the 2004 elections? She's been ramrodded down the American public's throat as the frontrunner for almost 3 years and it's Republicans doing the shoving.

Deny it all you want but the Repugs have been pushing her since November of 2004 an d now Dems are willing togo along with Rove's plan from way back.

[Stop Cornyn]

10. Actually, Edwards is the strongest head-to-head candidate in 2/3 of those match ups:

Out of those 12 head-to-head match ups, Edwards is the strongest candidate in 8 contests and he's either winning or within the margin of error in the 4 other races:

Edwards

vs.

Giuliani
FL 41-43
OH 46-36
PA 43-44

Thompson
FL 44-36
OH 48-31
PA 47-34

Romney
FL 47-33
OH 50-28
PA 49-32

McCain
FL 42-40
OH 46-35
PA 47-39

--

Clinton

vs.

Giuliani
FL 46-43
OH 46-40
PA 48-42

Thompson
FL 48-39
OH 50-36
PA 50-39

Romney
FL 48-37
OH 51-34
PA 49-37

McCain
FL 46-42
OH 48-38
PA 48-41

--

Obama

vs.

Giuliani
FL 39-42
OH 44-38
PA 43-45

Thompson
FL 45-36
OH 44-33
PA 45-37

Romney
FL 43-36
OH 47-31
PA 49-33

McCain
FL 39-41
OH 43-39
PA 45-41

Edwards is the strongest in 2/3 of the contests; specifically, he's strongest against all four Repubs in OH, he's the strongest against 3 out of 4 in PA, and he's the strongest against Romney in FL.

Hillary is the strongest in 1/4 of the contests; she's strongest against McCain in FL and strongest Guiliani in FL and PA.

Obama isn't the the strongest in any of the contests, but he's tied with Hillary and a single point ahead of Edwards in the three-way Democratic route of Thompson in FL.

[Divine Discontent]

12. how I'd love an EDWARDS vs ROMNEY ge

cuz the right's comments about Edwards hair & looks will be countered easily with Romney's wealth and magic underwear


Edwards

vs.

Romney
FL 47-33
OH 50-28
PA 49-32

[ShadowLiberal]

13. I don't think general election polls mean much this early

I remember looking at a chart towards the end of the 04 elections that showed that early on Kerry was ahead of Bush, but then it got a lot tighter in the general election, and Bush started to pull ahead.