Why national polls don't matter 90 days away from the first votes

[zulchzulu]

Today marks 90 days until the Iowa caucus if you think it will be still on January 14th, 2008. It will probably move to January 4th or 5th.

Some people are obsessing about national polls and spiriting the idea that it is all but "inevitable" for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination. Yet, if you look at the history of front runners this far out of the race's first votes, you see how historically it is not actually a good position for her to be in.

CBS News Poll, December 14-16, 2003
Dean - 23%
Clark - 10%
Lieberman - 10%
Gephardt - 6%
Sharpton - 5%
Kerry - 4%
Edwards - 2%

As you can see, Al Sharpton was beating John Kerry in the national polls in December.

A week before the Iowa caucus occurred, the polls suggested with Opinion Dynamics:
Dean - 20%
Clark - 13%
Lieberman - 8%
Gephardt - 7%
Kerry - 7%

After Kerry won Iowa, the national polls changed drastically overnight:
Kerry - 29%
Dean - 17%
Edwards - 13%
Clark -11%
Lieberman - 5%

Just to illustrate what national polls do after the first four states vote, here's Time/CNN poll breakdown:

John Kerry
2/5-6/04 - 43% (Dean 8%) (Not sure 8%)
1/14-15/04 - 9% (the day the Iowa caucus happened) (Dean 19%) (Not sure 17%)
1/1/04 - 10% (Dean 22%) (Not sure 23%)
11/18-19/03 - 9% (Dean 14%) (Not sure 23%)

If people want to take solace in their candidate's lead in national polls at this point and do nothing on a grassroots level, then they are surely going to help out other candidates who have a great ground game in the first four states.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm
http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_03_1208.pdf

[brooklynite]

1. Yes but...

I will agree that early polls, especially National ones, can be largely based on name recognition, and can't address the possible campaign flaws that can abruptly change a candidate's fortunes. I would suggest however that the greater focus this campaign has engendered (hence the earlier start) are now resulting in local polls that are reasonably close to reality. I would also opine that, at least in the case of Senator Clinton, the odds of a structural collapse are extremely low. Unlike Howard Dean, who's team had never been tested in turning out voters (at least outside of vermont), the Clinton campaign has the campaign smarts, money and discipline to turn out the voter in Iowa, New Hampshire and just about everywhere else.

[depakid]

16. National polls are stupid no matter how one does them

They're all but meaningless with respect to the electoral college.

[rinsd]

2. ZZ, why did you leave out the undecided numbers?

For instance in your first example Other + Don't know accounted for 38%!!

In your 2nd example Other + Don't know accounted for 31%.

The polls now are not even close to that in terms of don't know/won't vote/other numbers.

Shit the polls now have lower don't know/won't vote/other numbers than polling taken AFTER IA & NH.

"If people want to take solace in their candidate's lead in national polls at this point and do nothing on a grassroots level"

Excellent advice. Clinton supporters continue what you are doing to help Hillary win the nomination, this is no time to rest because of a polling advantage.

[zulchzulu]

13. I included the undecideds in the transition polls from 12/03 to 2/04

Like then, I believe there are a lot of undecided voters. If the Edwards campaign fades, there will be a new amount of undecided voters that will probably split more votes to Obama...

[rinsd]

19. Yes but the undecideds were even higher in the pre-election polls.

Right now the undecided numbers in national polling are lucky to break double digits.

Even though many folks have yet to decide, more people this year feel they have made their choice.

Look at questions 5 & 6.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-10-15-poll.htm?loc=interstitialskip

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Oh, Closing A Seven To Thirteen Point Gap Is A Bit Easier Than Closing A Thirty Point Gap

And

For those of you frustrated by the inability of other contenders to cut into Hillary's lead, stop and think about the numbers for a moment. Women are 58% of the Democratic primary voters. Hillary leads among women by 30% to 40% margins nationally. This means that a candidate trying to catch her would have to open up an astronomical offsetting advantage among men voters, probably 50% or more. The sizeable tilt towards women in the voting public puts any male candidate in the hole against a strong female candidate when it's time to count ballots. Enough of the silly comparisons to Howard Dean's collapse. Clinton has a strong, and highly energized, base.

http://www.mydd.com/

[glowing]

5. Where? I seriously don't understand where this large, great

base for Hillary is...AND another thing... most of my family (husband side) is Republican. They are absolutely pissed off at Georgie (family in Iraq thing kind of makes most pissed these days)... Anyway, I'm trying to get them to change their party, live in South Carolina... They would absolutely love to vote for Edwards. My sister-in-law said "this country is not ready for a woman yet, I'm sorry to say that we are still in the Flinstone era, but this country is not ready for it and especially that woman.. she'll have my cousin in Iran next"

And that's how the Redneck Republicans in my family think.. (all of them are intelligent and thoughtful and like the ideals of non-intrusive govt in their private lives. They have to agree that the wing-nuts stole their party).

I tend to listen to them because I think they are where America is. I'm way too involved and know a lot more than most do (thanks to MSM). They are my litmus test.. and they want Edwards. I decided to choose to support him finally after listening to him in New Hampshire... That guy walked up to John and said read this and open up the JFK file... In most cases, that guy would have been pre-screened and if he had slipped in, handlers would quickly arrive and remove him... John took the papers and said, give a little bit to read these over, I'll be back with you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. You Are Entitled To Make Decisions Based On Anecdotes

I just see the limitations of it...

There's a whole world out there that's larger than our individual group of friends and relatives...

[glowing]

10. Oh, beleive me, I know. I wish everyone would pay attention to

all the info that is out there. If they did, we would have a general election with Ron Paul for Repub. and Dennis Kucinich Dem. Or we would actually adopt a position where we had more than 2 parties that could be bought. We'd also throw out the old ass system we have for primaries and general election... because they really aren't the best ways to determine who rules for 4 years.

But, the reason why I finally chose Edwards is because I think he's the most electable, and he seems to listen and learn... He's intelligent. He processes what he learns and sees and turns it around into results... I like people like that.

I also don't buy into the mantra that anyone on the dem side is better than Bush. I think everyone on the Dem side is intelligent. Less puppeted, so what they do after coronation is much more deceptive and much worse because they probably had something to do with designing the deception.

Maybe I'm wrong... Maybe Hillary will use money and power to get to the top, and then say FUCK YOU ALL. And do the things that need to be done. As of right now, I doubt it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Started Out This Primary Season Liking Obama,Edwards, And Clinton

Though I liked Edwards and Obama a bit more... All the vitriol against Ms. Clinton here has actually made her a more attractive candidate to me..

[glowing]

12. I had my mind made up about her when her husband left office and the

wolf pack was speculating her run... While we love aspects of the Clinton years, we also yeilded some devastating policies. And I personally do not think we need more free trade agreements which make it virtually free to import foreign goods (especially when the value of currency runs so differently from one country to the next) and impossible to export.

I don't want her to give into powerful co., lobbyists, and repugs. Her voting record in the Senate is not outstanding to me, and I'm not sure why everyone thinks she has so much experience. Just because she slept in the White House doesn't mean she was at the helm. I think she's really good at campaigning.. she's done a lot of that. But with the Internet, its harder and harder to go place to place and say one thing to one crowd and something different to another... I don't think she is honest. Think of the stark contrast between herself and Dennis.. The more you look at her policies and that of Guiliani.. there aren't that many differences.. just delivered to a different crowd in a different way.

Any hoo... just because someone is getting beat up, doesn't mean you must defend them with your honor. Its up to her to defend herself.. being honest might help her out a bit.

[zulchzulu]

23. Well said...

If people really focus on the realities that the Clinton administration did to the middle class and essentially did nothing but window dressing after Newt and the Boys arrived from their victory in 1994, this fake nostalgia will come back to the dot bomb post-sex scandal legacy that Gore felt he needed to avoid. Clinton was radioactive in 2000.

Turn the page. This is no time to read the same thing over again.

[Ethelk2044]

7. And you do not know anything until the first vote is cast. Don't be

surprise Iowa will be another Dean account with Kerry Winning

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Even If He Wins Iowa Which Is Becoming More And More Unlikely

He's not going to erase Hillary's gains in the forty eight other states...

If I was you I would start preparing myself for the inevitable defeat so it doesn't hurt so bad...That's what I do with my favorite sports teams...

Just sayin...

[zulchzulu]

15. The Obama campaign has very strong and wide support in Iowa

I've been there. Hillary Clinton is going to be a distant third by the time the caucus night ends in January. You can count on that. The "inevitability" balloon will pop in Des Moines.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. A Wish Is A Dream The Heart Makes

The next poll will show her with a double digit lead in Iowa...

Book it...

[zulchzulu]

20. Heh... are you a betting person?

$10 says the race is still a dead heat between Clinton, Edwards and Obama in a poll next week.

Double digit lead in Iowa... :rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. "I Have The Numbers"

Just wait...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. A Wish Is A Dream The Heart Makes

The next poll will show her with a double digit lead in Iowa...

Book it...

[rinsd]

9. If Kerry wins Iowa, I don't think anyone will be more surprised than me.

;-)

[glowing]

22. You never know until your in the booth and you cast the vote.

[sampsonblk]

4. Every little bit helps

Being ahead helps raise money and draw attention to a campaign.

[bigwillq]

14. That's why I never get my panties in a bunch

over all these polls. It doesn't matter who is ahead now.