What's the republican primary calendar like?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

If the pugs follow form (always giving the nom. to "next in line"), McCain could jump out of the box like Kerry in 2004. That works for me... he's weaker than Rudy. Assuming Thompson fizzles, McCain would move up to the role of the only actual republican in the top tier, so I'm not counting him out quite yet. But I don't have a good mental picture of the pug primary sequence.

If Michigan and Florida count for the pugs then their calendar is very different than ours.

I was thinking that if Rudy came in 4th in Iowa and McCain managed to win NH with Mitt 2nd, that Rudy would look like a real loser moving on from NH. But Rudy will kill in FL, and Mitt should do well in MI, and those are large blocs of delegates... it's confusing.

[TwilightGardener]

1. So far, Mittens is positioned to take IA, NH, and MI--plus some of the religious right

is starting to (unenthusiastically) back him. I don't think McCain will ultimately do that well, because Rudy and Romney will squeeze him out in those early states, and Thompson is still pulling votes away from him too. I heard tonite on Hairball or Tucker that McCain's campaign is in the red by about $90,000. I think he's doooooomed.

[pinto]

2. Schedule is here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

(edit for more accurate info)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Thanks, but now I'm really confused. Why are the MSM even talking about NH?

Thursday, January 3, 2008 - Iowa (41)
Saturday, January 5, 2008 - Wyoming (12 of 28)<2>
Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - Michigan (61)
Saturday, January 19, 2008 - Nevada (34), South Carolina<3> (47)
Tuesday January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire<4> (24)
Tuesday, January 29, 2008 - Florida<5> (114)
Saturday, February 2, 2008 - Maine (21)<6>

If the break-away states are live primaries for the republicans then why the hell is anyone talking about NH? The pugs have three really big primaries between Iowa and NH... all larger blocs of delegates than NH.

Am I missing something?

[pinto]

4. There's jockeying in both major parties for dates. Traditionally, Iowa is the first caucus,

and NH the first primary. (Some of the listed dates on the wikipedia list may not be final.)

[pinto]

5. (on follow up) And NH is the first reported vote in the general election.

Dixville Notch, iirc, reports the first presidential vote of the general election. (?)

Tradition, and law, is vying with state parties' desire to play a larger role in the nominating process.

[Lucinda]

6. Thankie for the link!