Democratic Iowa Caucus Latest Poll Results

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/democratic_iowa_caucus

[Adelante]

1. Whoaaaa - that's a big change from other polls

Clinton 33%
Edwards 22%
Obama 21%

Have I not been paying close enough attention or what?

[redqueen]

3. Oooh I like those numbers for Edwards!

:bounce:

[rinsd]

9. That is their overall sample

All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Clinton in the lead with Edwards and Obama close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Clinton with 33% of the vote and an eleven point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Clinton attracts 31% support and leads by eight

Methodology for determining likelihood of going to caucus here - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/iowa_caucus_screening

[Adelante]

12. Thanks

Still is a tidy spread.

[SaveElmer]

2. Sweet...I like that...

Will wait for a couple more...though this is in line with the latest Des Moines Register poll...

[ElizabethDC]

4. Excellent - I hope Hillary's upward trend continues. n/t

[sampsonblk]

5. Splain this: Something is wrong

The top five Dem candidates in this poll: 33%-22%-21%-9%-4%...

The top five GOP candidates in this poll: 33%-22%-21%-9%-4%...


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/democratic_iowa_caucus
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008/iowa_republican_caucus

I think someone made a mistake with the GOP numbers. The GOP numbers seem curiously off-trend.

[zulchzulu]

6. I know for a fact that there are a lot of undecided voters in Iowa

Where are they factored in this poll? I looked at the site and didn't see anything on that.

[Ethelk2044]

7. Zul it will show at the most important poll in January election day in Iowa

[rinsd]

8. Based on the math, I would guess 9% undecided.

Ras makes you pay to see crosstabs though and at $20 a month its a little steep just to see crosstabs. I am a poll junkie but not that big a poll junkie. Maybe in Dec and Jan.

Here's their screening methodology for likely caucus goers.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/iowa_caucus_screening

All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Clinton in the lead with Edwards and Obama close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Clinton with 33% of the vote and an eleven point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Clinton attracts 31% support and leads by eight

[zulchzulu]

10. Yep, I noticed the crosstabs demanded money to see the skinny

Iowans are historically pretty undecided until a week or so before the caucus. We'll see....

[rinsd]

11. Gaps can close and leads can change in a hurry in January.

Which is why I may invest in crosstabs for Jan just to see daily trends.