Flashback to reality: Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina polls in 2003-2004

[zulchzulu]

This shows how national polls meant nothing in 2003 leading up to the primaries. Notice how some candidates leading in polls in December, 2003 were solidly out of the race after the Iowa and New Hampshire votes.

National
Pew Poll Dec 8:

Howard Dean 15% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Wesley Clark 15% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Dick Gephardt 12% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Joe Lieberman 12% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Kerry 6% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Edwards 5% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Al Sharpton 5% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Carol Moseley Braun 4% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Dennis Kucinich 2% :bluebox::bluebox:

---

Iowa
Pew Poll Dec 8:

Howard Dean 29% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Wesley Clark 3% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Dick Gephardt 21% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Joe Lieberman 1% :bluebox:
John Kerry 18% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Edwards 5% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Al Sharpton 5% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Carol Moseley Braun 4% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Dennis Kucinich 2% :bluebox::bluebox:

Caucus vote

Howard Dean 18% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Wesley Clark 0%
Dick Gephardt 11% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Joe Lieberman 0%
John Kerry 38% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Edwards 32% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Al Sharpton 0%
Carol Moseley Braun withdrawn
Dennis Kucinich 1% :bluebox:

---

New Hampshire
Pew Poll Dec 8:

Howard Dean 34% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Wesley Clark 8% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Dick Gephardt 5% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Joe Lieberman 8% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Kerry 20% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Edwards 4% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Al Sharpton 1% :bluebox:
Carol Moseley Braun 1% :bluebox:
Dennis Kucinich 1% :bluebox:

Actual Vote--Jan 27

Howard Dean 28% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Wesley Clark 13% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Dick Gephardt withdrawn
Joe Lieberman 9% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Kerry 39% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Edwards 12% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Al Sharpton 0%
Carol Moseley Braun withdrawn
Dennis Kucinich 1% :bluebox:

---

South Carolina
Pew Poll Dec 8:

Howard Dean 7% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Wesley Clark 11% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Dick Gephardt 10% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Joe Lieberman 9%:bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Kerry 3% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Edwards 16% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Al Sharpton 8% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Carol Moseley Braun 2% :bluebox::bluebox:
Dennis Kucinich 0%

Actual Vote --Feb 3:

Howard Dean 5% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Wesley Clark 7% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Dick Gephardt withdrawn
Joe Lieberman 2% :bluebox::bluebox:
John Kerry 30% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
John Edwards 45% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Al Sharpton 10% :bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox::bluebox:
Carol Moseley Braun withdrawn
Dennis Kucinich 1% :bluebox:

http://censorshipamericanstyle.com/PewKoppel.html

[SaveElmer]

1. Quite different...

Whereas there was quite a mix of who led where, with no one dominant candidate everywhere in 2004...

This year is quite different...with one candidate running at 50%+ nationally, and leading in every state but Illinois and New Mexico...

Thanks for pointing that out!

[surfermaw]

2. LIttle hard to believe

John Edwards , I do know was given more campaign money than any other democrat in South Carolina. Is there something wrong with that poll

[surfermaw]

4. Sorry, I jumped so fast and messed up

John has been given such a raw deal on T.V. that most anything makes me angry enough to boil.

[zulchzulu]

6. What will be interesting will be the soft Clinton supporters and cell phone users...

...that are off the radar in polling data nationally.

Iowa is going to break up the "inevitability" angle that the Clinton campaign is hoping gets drummed into people's heads. I would gladly bet that she will place third in Iowa and the media will be all over the campaign. Front runners are historically nearly always the first to get hit hard and then fade.

Speculation for sure, but that's my view.

[SaveElmer]

10. Except polls clearly show that right now...

Hillary's supporters are the least likely to change their minds...

And there is no evidence young cell phone users answer any differently than young voters contacted by land line or online...

There is also a school of thought that Iowa polls are undercounting women voters and the elderly, who are by far more likely to participate in a caucus...and of course are Hillary's strongest demographics...

[zulchzulu]

25. Dude, I changed the mind of a so-called Clinton supporter in 10 minutes

Maybe it's just me and my charming good looks...

:hi:

[SaveElmer]

26. And I have changed the minds of many an independent...

[youthere]

30. I'm not arguing with you...

but I'd just point out that at my 2004 caucus some of the most rabid Dean supporters went to support Kerry and Edwards. People do change their minds, I thought I was absolutely set on Obama...now I'm looking at other candidates (I still like him, I've just learned more about others).People hear new things, it changes their minds. It's possible Hillary goes into this with 50% and comes out with 75%...but it's also possible she comes out with 15%. It's crazy, I tell you.

[Clintonista2]

20. Don't forget

The percentage of undecideds last time was HUGE, much more than the current primary.

[ieoeja]

29. Bigger than 73% (lastest undecideds in Iowa)? n/t

[gateley]

3. This is really interesting! I know people argue that was then and it's different

today, but what this shows me is that you just don't know for sure until the actual vote. Thanks for posting this! Recommend.

[surfermaw]

5. You are right

And if Clark and Edwards hadn't gotten at the same time, Edwards would have beaten Kerry, in IOwa.

[rinsd]

8. You can't know for sure what will happen until the voting is done in any election

But 2008 is different from 2004 for many reasons.

[gateley]

13. I understand the point you make, but I can still hope! :-) nt

[rinsd]

7. National polling meant little in 2003 because the lead vote getter was Undecided

At least in your PEW example. Undecided would slip to 2nd place up to NH

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates.

"I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. After I read all the names, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate for president. . . ." Names rotated. If "None" or "Don’t know": "Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?"
Nov.-Dec. 2003 wording: "Which one of the following Democratic candidates would be your first choice for president: ?" If "Don’t know": "Just as of today, would you say you LEAN toward ?"

       1/6-11/04   12/19/03-1/4/04  11/18-12/1/03 		
		       % 	   % 	     % 		
Howard Dean 	        26 	    27 	     15 		
Wesley Clark 	        14 	    10 	     15 		
Joe Lieberman 	        13 	    13 	     12 		
Richard Gephardt 	9 	    10 	     12 		
John Kerry 	        8 	     7 	      6 		
Al Sharpton 	        5 	     5 	      5 		
John Edwards 	        4 	     6 	      5 		
Carol Moseley Braun 	3 	     3 	      4 		
Dennis Kucinich 	1 	     2 	      2 		
Other (vol.) 	        1 	     1 	      1 		
Don't know/No answer   16 	    16 	      23 

You have posted this a few times without including the undecided numbers which were much higher in 2003 than they are now. 

[zulchzulu]

18. From my experiences out in the street, many people are undecided

Some of these daily polls tend to hide that fact.

Iowans are notorious for being undecided until the last week before the caucus. New Hamphire voters tend to go against the front runner at the last second.

If a candidate wants to play the "inevitability" card like other front runners have in the past, it's certain that what you see in national polls will be considered completely inaccurate once the first votes are cast and someone else gets the big mo...

Only 80 days to go...

[rinsd]

21. Yes but in 2003 even more people were undecided

As evidenced by both the numbers actually saying they were undecided and the lead changes that took place between Oct 1st and IA caucus time.

"If a candidate wants to play the "inevitability" card like other front runners have in the past, it's certain that what you see in national polls will be considered completely inaccurate once the first votes are cast and someone else gets the big mo..."

Well one shouldn't use national heats to gauge how a candidate will do in IA in the first place.

And the "Mo" of Iowa may be slightly mitigated by what happens in NV.

[Nimrod2005]

9. This one deserves a BIG WOW!!! Hillary better watch out!

[nashville_brook]

11. very informative reminder -- will bookmark.

this will come in handy.

[skipos]

12. And you can't deny that non-VP, non-incumbent Dem frontrunners rarely

get the nomination too.

[sniffa]

14. whatever hiLLary hater

kick and m-f'fer-icetea recommend.

[Tejanocrat]

15. 2008 is different in that Dean peaked too early by only ONE month; Hillary's THREE months too early!

[wyldwolf]

19. she continues to rise in the polls. How is that peaking?

[illinoisprogressive]

16. that is why you should ignore the polls.

[flpoljunkie]

17. Given high numbers of IA voters who say they could change their mind, the race in remains very fluid

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/democratic_iowa_caucus

[zulchzulu]

28. If you look how December numbers were off by 15+ points...

...and the caucus was merely a couple weeks away, it's apparent historically that anything could happen.

Being a frontrunner a couple months before the first votes are cast is usually not the case the day after the first votes are cast. Add the meme of "inevitability" to the mix and you get even more reason for people to change their mind.

[usregimechange]

22. Yep, thanks for the post.

[Nutmegger]

23. R&K...

The race is far from over.

[hvn_nbr_2]

24. That happens almost every campaign cycle

Polls a year or two in advance are worth about as much as the salad you buy a year in advance to eat at the inauguration banquet.

[usregimechange]

27. kick