Poll: Third Party Conservative Would Hurt Repug (25% Repugs would go third party over Ghouliani)

[jefferson_dem]

Bwhahahahah...

FOX News Poll: Third Party Conservative Damages Republican Chances

NEW YORK — When a third party Christian Conservative is considered in the race for the White House, the candidate captures one of four Republican votes and a small minority of the overall vote. That significantly decreases support for Republican Rudy Giuliani and increases Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton’s lead to double digits, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday.

In a head-to-head contest, Clinton has a 4 percentage point edge over Giuliani -- 47 percent to 43 percent. Clinton has maintained a slim advantage over Giuliani for the last few months.

In a hypothetical three-way race, an unnamed Christian Conservative third party candidate receives the support of 14 percent of voters, and Clinton tops Giuliani by 10 points (44 percent to 34 percent).

Giuliani’s support among Republicans drops from 79 percent in the two-way race to 60 percent when the third party Christian Conservative is included.

By a 56 percent to 35 percent margin, self-identified Born Again Christians back Giuliani over Clinton. When given the option, about a quarter of this group says they would vote for a Christian Conservative candidate -- reducing Giuliani’s support by 20 points: Giuliani 36 percent, Clinton 30 percent and the Christian Conservative 26 percent.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,302776,00.html

FULL POLL RESULTS ---> http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/101707_2008_matchups_web.pdf

[saltpoint]

1. It would be great if the nutbag fundies wanted to punish the GOP more than

they wanted to contend for political influence.

Their outrage of "liberal" Giuliani would have to drive them harder than their awareness that a third party candidacy would almost certainly elect a Democratic ticket.

And of course many of us perceive Giuliani as PLENTY right wing.

The survey findings you cite strike me as likely accurate. Now let's hope the fundies act on their fury.

[Virginia Dare]

2. My nutbag neighbors support Ron Paul..

so that could very well be the case. Roody wouldn't do well at all in the south methinks.

[saltpoint]

3. Hi, Virginia Dare. I bet you're right.

As for Paul, he looks like he's going to create a stir. Not sure he can pull it off nationally, but he may take votes away from a predictable GOP primary outcome in several states.

Which is great. The more chaos visited upon their nominating process, the better.

[Virginia Dare]

4. It also remains to be seen how motivated the nutbag/limbaugh crowd..

will be to come out and vote AGAINST HRC, assuming she's the nominee, which of course is far from definite at this point.

[saltpoint]

5. Agree. We'd be a healthier democracy if Rush's ratings were not high.

It worries me that the Constitution allows gasbags like Hannity, Beck, et al to spew their propaganda but that in the spewing the nation is made less fair and less tolerant.

Agree also that HClinton is not yet the inevitable nominee. I think Edwards, Obama, and Biden are better positioned demographically to win in the primaries, depending on how things go in the first 2 -- Iowa and New Hampshire. If she does not win at least one of those, I don't see her winning a lot of the others that follow.

[Virginia Dare]

6. I was just looking at the recent radio ratings in the D.C. area..

Rush, Hannity et al's numbers are up...I actually think having the Dems in power would HELP these assholes, so it should be interesting.

[OHdem10]

7. The Fundies and Christian Coalition are too saavy politically

to try to do a 3rd Party.

They are showing their clout and angling for a deal.

When GWB was running, there were some groups in the coalition
who held out. They wanted John Ashcroft as president.

With some serious horse trading they got Ashcroft as Attorney General.
No President has ever pandered to RR the way GWB has. What a deal
one Interest Group received. They voted for and supported GWB.

Some clues I have picked up.

Two very influential Leaders: Both are Southern Baptists
have given Mitt Rommney the Nod. It is the Southern Baptist
who have the most problems with Mormanism.

[Perky]

8. It is never that simple

You have to also take a look at this on a state by state basis.

For example, How would this shake out in Georgia? Clinton would take her 35% and Rudy might take his 40% so the 25% leftover who might vpote third party would not necessarily hurt the GOP candidate.


Where it is an issue is places like Ohio, where the fundies would almost definitely put the state in HRC's hands.


Now ohn the other hand, if it were Obama who has greater appeal among evangelicals than HRC and would garner a far larger turnout in the SOuth. A Third Party candidact might allow Obama to win some southern states.

[AX10]

9. I find it hard to believe. A third party fundie would get no more than...

5% of the vote.