Carl Leubsdorf: Clinton's gender wild card

[SaveElmer]

Will being a woman help her more than it hurts her? asks CARL LEUBSDORF

12:00 AM CDT on Thursday, October 18, 2007

When John F. Kennedy ran for president in 1960 and for years afterward, political analysts disagreed on whether his Roman Catholicism helped him more in northern industrial states than it hurt him in the rest of the country.

What his victory did was eliminate Catholicism as an issue, although neither party nominated a Catholic over the next generation.

A similar debate is taking place this year over Hillary Rodham Clinton and, if she becomes the first major party female nominee, whether her sex will help or hurt.

Her recent activities and comments make clear that she believes it will help. Her campaign this week called women "a critical voting bloc that will help propel Hillary to victory in November 2008."

Independent evidence indicates that her sex is a strong asset in seeking the Democratic nomination. And while it would be premature to say for sure that it will help in the general election, initial signs are that it will be a plus, something a prominent Texas Republican pollster says his party has failed to recognize.

"Republicans underestimate the very powerful symbolism and feel-good emotions that would accompany electing the first woman president," said Dr. David Hill of Houston, director of Hill Research Consultants. "It's a big deal."

...

In a recent column in The Hill, a Capitol Hill-based paper, Dr. Hill chided Republicans eager to face Mrs. Clinton who label her a political version of the late hotel executive Leona Helmsley, known as the "Queen of Mean."

"Before this is over, Hillary's candidacy will have more in common with Amelia Earhart's first trans-Atlantic flight or Sally K. Ride's first trip into space than Helmsley's heartlessness," he wrote.

...

Andrew Kohut of the independent Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, said a study of 40 statewide elections showed that female Democrats did better against male Republicans, largely because they did better among women and no worse among men.

Though conceding that some find Mrs. Clinton "more polarizing" than some other female candidates, Mr. Kohut suggested she would enjoy a similar advantage. He said the Pew study showed that "the gender differences in support for Clinton at this early stage in the campaign are, on average, typical for Democratic women who run for statewide office."

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