WP, E.J. Dionne: Test Run For 2008; In Tsongas Special Election, Lessons for Both Parties

[DeepModem Mom]

Test Run For 2008
In a Special Election, Lessons for Both Parties
By E. J. Dionne Jr.
Friday, October 19, 2007; Page A21

The narrow victory of Democrat Niki Tsongas in a special congressional election in Massachusetts this week offers warnings to both Republicans and Democrats for 2008.

Her victory on Tuesday speaks to the continuing unpopularity of President Bush and the war in Iraq. But her less than robust margin over Republican Jim Ogonowski -- she won 51 percent to his 45 percent, with minor-party candidates taking the rest -- tells Democrats they cannot assume that Bush's low standing will turn the road to next year's elections into easy street. Individual candidates can still trump party affiliation, and sleeper issues can catch politicians by surprise.

In Massachusetts's 5th Congressional District -- a collection of mill towns and affluent and blue-collar suburbs north of Boston -- the surprise issue was illegal immigration. Ogonowski made it the centerpiece of an anti-Washington campaign. An Ogonowski news release, for example, accused Tsongas of being "committed to giving cheap college to illegals at taxpayer expense."...

***

The personal played, too. Ogonowski, an affable hay farmer and retired Air Force and Air National Guard officer, was well suited to the populist, anti-Washington campaign that national Republicans hoped would provide a template for their candidates in 2008. His brother John, an American Airlines pilot, was killed when his hijacked plane was flown into the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001. Ogonowski cast himself as a regular guy facing a political pro....

***

Democratic strategists were not only worried that Ogonowski was running a better campaign than Tsongas. They also noticed that the district was one of the least Democratic in a very blue state. Many of its nominal Democrats are Reagan Democrats....But this time, the Democrats had three trump cards: Bush, Iraq and the president's veto of the State Children's Health Insurance Program, or SCHIP....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/18/AR2007101801577.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

[WCGreen]

1. If this is the least democratic of all the districts in Mass....

What's the problem...

She beat a guy who had appeal and obviously had some cash...

She beat him by 5%...

She can build on that...

[izzie]

2. Where is it?

Is this also the same family of Paul Tsongus? He was from Lowell, I think. Lowell is an old mill town but I would think the towns around would be pretty rich. Westford and Chelmsford etc. Most I bet vote GOP.

[rox63]

3. Niki is Paul Tsongas' widow

Cities like Lowell and Lawrence voted heavily for Tsongas. But those cities are surrounded by smaller towns that voted Republican. The cities are like bright blue islands floating in a sea of red towns. Massachusetts is more of a mosaic of blue and red, rather than a solid blue block on the map. And yes, this is one of the more conservative districts in the state.

[seaglass]

4. Westford and Chelmsford especially are moving to solidly

middle class. I know Chelmsford went for Ognowski and I'm pretty sure Westford did too. The wealthier towns in our District went for Tsongas though. As did Lowell and Lawrence. Turnout was part of the issue too - I think it was 33% in Chelmsford (Ognowski) vs. 19% in Lawrence (Tsongas).

Yes, Nikki is Paul's wife.

I could give a much better explanation than Dionne as to why the race was so close; I'm not surprised.

[rox63]

7. Most of the smaller towns surrounding Lowell and Larence went for Ogonowski

Chelmsford, Westford, Tewksbury, Tyngsboro, Billerica, Dracut (Ogo's home town), Methuen, they all went red. But because of the cities and the more liberal towns in the southern end of the district, we were able to win this one. I knew it was going to be close, because of the number of lawn signs I saw for Ogonowski out there.

[izzie]

13. I am glad to see some one else looks at signs.

I feel they really mean things. By the way I saw a Ron Paul sign up this week. Early and it was a shock. I live in So. Maine. I come from Lowell and was for Paul Tsongas when Clinton got in. I also have many in my family from places around Lowell so sort of keep it in my mind. I spent a lot of time around their growing up.

[riqster]

5. If the message is "It ain't in the bag yet"

...then it is true. Reeps will 'take care of the counting', remember.

What kind of voting machines do they use there, and what went wrong witrh them?

[rox63]

6. This is not a voting machine issue

It's actually a reflection of the towns in the district. Massachusetts is not solid blue. It's got some red streaks running through it, especially in this district.

[riqster]

8. Every election is partly a voting machine issue, if machines are involved

...let me explain.

A lot of the discussion hinges on Ms. Tsongas' relatively slim margin of victory. Who calculated the margin?

Private corporations, owned largely by Reeps, that's who. Your Board of Elections has lost control of the process, it is conducted with the 'assistance' of election industry 'representatives', who set up, maintain, and control the actual casting, recording, and tabulation of the votes.

If you cannot see the votes being recorded and tatted up, you do not know the real numbers. Ms. Tsongas could have won by a landslide, and we have no way of knowing. And if she did in fact win by a larger margin, then the entire discussion (and the public perception) changes completely.

I am not saying that she did so, of course. I am simply saying that demographics should not be the sole topic of discussion.

[rox63]

10. We use paper ballots that are run through optical scanners

The same way we've voted since the mid-eighties.

[riqster]

12. And who programs the scanners?

Yup, the manufacturer.

[rox63]

14. I'd be more suspicious if the rethug had won, but he didn't

I've lived in this district most of my life. The results were a fairly accurate reflection of the district.

[arendt]

9. The district is a sprawling, gerrymandered nightmare...

I think it was patched together in its current form around 2002, after the last census.

It does sort of cover the Merrimac Valley, whose history explains the voting pattern of the district. The big towns, Lowell and Lawrence, used to be textile mill towns; but they went under when the mills fled to the south in the 60s-70s (I think). In the early 90s, when the old defense tech bubble burst after the Cold War, there was more dislocation.

My sense of the place is that there are a lot of angry workers who used to have decent jobs. The state government is notoriously corrupt, no matter which party is in power. And, I doubt the state does much in targetted aid to bring back this "rust belt" - the state is too busy with Cambridge and biotechs and the financial industry to worry about some "greasy mechanics".

So, I can see the anti-government, self-reliance message of the GOP propaganda machine getting traction in such a demographic.

What appalls me are the middle class in places like Chelmsford, who vote GOP. I work with some of these folks. They think nothing of shopping at WalMart. They want lower taxes (even though, contrary to the propaganda, MA ranks in the lower half of state tax rates). They don't feel the pain Bush has caused, so they don't worry.

Bottom line - I was underwhelmed by the Tsongas campaign, and I have low expectations of her.

arendt

[CCfromNY]

11. Why it was close

Ogonowski, brother of a pilot killed on 9/11 and OPPOSED the Iraq war...

...of course he could make it close.

lol, I'm sure most Republicans who can run in 08 as having opposed the Iraq war should be able to make it close.

[rox63]

15. He says he would never have invaded

But now he wants to keep our troops there indefinitely, until we achieve something he calls "victory". That does not sound anti-war to me.

[cleveramerican]

16. live in the southern tip of the district

and when I saw Ogo's camapign flyer saying he'd "stand with Bush" on all things I thought he was going to get run over.This is John Kerry's old district.

His 45% showing astounded me.

I do think there's a message here for the overconfident.