The Clinton Surprise

[William769]

The shocks just keep on coming:
Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field with 51 percent of the vote.
She beats Barack Obama by 24 percentage points among black Democrats.
She is projected now to beat Giuliani – or at the very least to be in a statistical dead heat with him in the general election.
This wasn’t supposed to happen. According to the received wisdom of those in-the-know here in Washington, Hillary was supposed to be divisive, unelectable, “radioactive.”
It was the fault of Bill and Monica, and the fact that you never knew when there was going to be another Bill and Monica. It was the fault of Hillary – for not taking the hard line on Bill and Monica the way a woman of her stature and standing was supposed to do. And it was the fault of voters – those people out there who would never, ever elect another Clinton.
Why? Because … everyone said so.
(“I think the one thing we know about Hillary, the one thing we absolutely know, bottom line, she can`t win, right?” is how MSNBC host Tucker Carlson once put it to New Republic editor-at-large Peter Beinart. “She is unelectable.”)
The “we” world of Tucker Carlson knew what they knew about Hillary Clinton — right up until about this week, I think — because they spend an awful lot of time talking to, socializing with and interviewing one another.
What they don’t do all that much is venture outside of a certain set of zip codes to get a feel for the way most people are actually living. They don’t sign up for adjustable rate mortgages, visit emergency rooms to get their primary health care, leave their children in unlicensed day care or lose their jobs because they have to drive their mothers home from the hospital after hip replacement surgery.
Hillary Clinton’s supporters, it turns out, do.

http://warner.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/18/the-clinton-surprise/index.html

[EV_Ares]

1. Tucker Carlson is a total idiot. He only has that job because of his

father's influence in high up corporate republican circles. Tucker spends each day bashing the dems, he is actually worse than Fox because of his daily bashing & incoherent information he dishes out.

Not a Hillary supporter but he is full of crap.

[polichick]

12. I wondered how he got (and kept) his job...

He's like a talking bag o'slime!

[EV_Ares]

28. Yeah, the little boy grew up in the most expensive area of San Diego.

Believe his father was appointed an ambassador somewhere by the republicans and he is one of those Rangers for Bush. Has a lot of influence.

[WCGreen]

31. No one really pays attention to him except his family and the

really really really strung out political junkies like us...

[wyldwolf]

2. the description sounds like the left, too...

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[BridgeTheGap]

3. If they REALLY thouht HRC couldn't win, would they trumpet it so loudly?

You'd think the strategy would be: let her win - she's the only one we can beat. If this message of "HRC can't win" really struck a cord with Dems and we nominated someone else, the repubs would be in trouble in '08 (which they are any way).
Maybe they're just trashing her now in an attempt to soften her up for '08 but it strikes me as very stupid strategy.

[Tellurian]

26. It's called Chaos and Confusion...

confuse the masses with doublespeak, cultivate the paranoia within special interest groups and for good measure instigate infighting and chaos blurring the true message. It's called psychological propaganda the key to keeping the public dumbed down and confused to the real agenda enfolding before their eyes.

[MrModerate]

4. I guess my question would be . . .

Will there ever be any professional penalty for these cloud-cuckoo-land pundits who spend their entire careers just making shit up and generally behaving like a school of anchovies, reversing direction at the same instant based on some stimulus that no one else can see? Or are they a permanent blight, and is some reasonable level of truth a practical impossibility these days?

For a long time, I convinced myself that the 'net would be the great leveler, rendering the Carlsons and Hannities and Russerts of the world mute. But instead, the netroots have just amped up the noise level, so that a large percentage of reasonable people believe that *nothing* they hear is true and *anything* is possible -- and basing their political participation on whichever handfuls of "truth" they've decided to hold onto.

[emilyg]

5. "school of anchovies" - love that.

[pokercat999]

6. Me too, although the are slower than anchovies they

smell the same.

[Schema Thing]

7. When you find the right doctor or medicine

that gives you some relief, please forward it to me. Because I feel your pain.

Very well said.

[Froward69]

8. when Hillary

wins the primary, then looses the GE will you pay attention then? or if the religious right splits off and she wins the GE. invades Iran and keeps our troops in Iraq indefinitely will you then question her? or does the pink pantsuit do it for you?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2075806

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Hmmm

Those are facts not in evidence and suggesting the poster forms his opinions on "pink pantsuits" is sexist...

[William769]

23. So much hatred. it's not good, you should really see a Doctor for it.

And wheres your proof she will lose the General?

[...of J.Temperance]

33. Unless

They hate Hillary so much that they'd ACTUALLY be hoping she loses the Presidential Election?

Could be, I dunno, I read so much, almost irrational hatred of the woman, it's literally mind-boggling.

[...of J.Temperance]

32. When Hillary Clinton gets the Presidential nomination....she's

Going on to WIN the Presidential election....it's going to happen.

Where is your evidence that a President Hillary Clinton will invade Iran?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Tucker

I don't want to be sexist so I'll just suggest Ms. Clinton has a certain set of something bigger than than the bowtied one...

[Froward69]

13. referring to genitalia at all is inherently sexist...

sad that is the case. opinion should be based upon voting FOR war, or voting FOR labeling an army a terrorist org. to make it easier to go to War. or touting new position, based on the latest poll... truth is the only acceptable argument. however most HRC supporters. will simply not listen, or condemn as "Sexist"

[William769]

24. So then whats up with the pink pantsuit?

[Froward69]

36. Just pointing out

with Hillary fans the blinders are on. voting for her simply because of her gender or who her husband is. never really testing her grey matter or making the clear difference between her politics and her Husbands. not looking at better more qualified candidates, never truly asking what is best for America. Only to jump off that cliff allowing her to 1)keep troops immersed in iraqi civil war. 2)never addressing Wheres osama? Voting for a candidate simply because of their gender or the pigment in their skin. is Flat out Wrong.

[Tellurian]

27. No, actually we don't give much credence to people who have been here..

barely a month and are spouting opines based on bull shit!

[MethuenProgressive]

10. “She is unelectable.” - Tucker Carlson

Tucker must be reading DU...
:eyes:

[surfermaw]

14. Bill Clinton could have won by a landslide if he could have run

67% approval after Monika.

[MGKrebs]

15. Fascinating campaign.

Regardless of how this all turns out, you gotta hand it to Team Clinton. They have put themselves in a position to win. They knew they would have to overcome this (and other) obstacles, and they have steadily chipped away to get to this point. They also, presumably, recognized that her "name recognition" was both a strong point and a weakness. They were able to leverage the strong part into early money and endorsements so that she could travel and set up organizations quickly, which has allowed them to build on that in terms of getting press coverage and more support. It's easy to screw this stuff up, but they have had an effective plan every step of the way.

The VRWC has anticipated a Hillary candidacy for something like 10 years, and they have done everything they could to derail it through all those years. Amazingly, she has at least fought them to a draw so far, and may be on the verge of beating them. Odds that were probably once astronomical, are now in her favor. They are playing a dangerous game if it is true that some on the right want to run against her because she is supposed to be beatable.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. HRC Is The Bill Belichek And Greg Popovich Of Politics

I hope you like basketball and football but both men are known for their discipline, planning, and execution... I suspect she has thought about this a long time...

[rufus dog]

29. and POP got a bit of help from Stern

In the NBA playoffs with PHX! Bill B I will give you. The San Antonio Spurs seemed to be the anointed ones so ABC could show Tony Parker and then Desperate Housewife commercials.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. Fascinating. Not a vote has been cast

yet everyone acts like it's all over but the swearing in.
This sort of presumption has led to many a downfall.

[MGKrebs]

19. Ooohh. We're not supposed to speculate about possible outcomes?

She is leading. There are plenty of scenarios I could talk about regarding a potential Edwards or Obama victory, but they are basically negative (to me) so I refrain. If you want to talk about the strong position that say, Edwards is in, 'der ain't nuttin' stoppin' you.

edit to tone down.

[cleveramerican]

21. something nice to say about Hillary

The professional political operatives from both parties will tell you, like they've told me.
Hillary is running the most disciplined, professional campaign machine that has ever existed.

I wouldn't bet against her,regardless of my personal preferences.

[BootinUp]

20. The night of her election

I am going to be recording all the wingnut reactions, it will be a nice recording to watch for the next several decades. :)

[cobalt1999]

22. I want to record the Limbaugh show after the election.

That should be entertaining.

[...of J.Temperance]

35. Yeah

It's going to totally drive them insane....I mean most of them are nearly there now, but a President Hillary Clinton is going to completely drive them off the deep-end.

[calteacherguy]

25. This proves that conventional wisdom in politics is often wrong. nt

[rufus dog]

30. I really don't thing the Monica affair has much influence

If someone hated the Clinton's they used it as reason to justify hate. Joe Q. thought it was a pile of crap. So for that, in my book, she has nothing to answer for. It will be extremely difficult for the righties to use it if Rudy wins the Nom.

[...of J.Temperance]

34. Agreed

And it's pathetic, that ten years after the Monica Lewinsky thing, they STILL obsess about it.

At the time it all happened, nobody cared anyhow, ONLY the rabid Clinton haters were even bothered about Monica....funny that during the whole episode, President Clinton's approval ratings never really went below 70% and he left office on January 20th, 2001 with, I think a 71% approval rating.

Why should Hillary Clinton have to answer questions about Monica Lewinsky, it's NOT relevent at all to her campaign....and of course, as you say if Rudy Guiliani win's the GOP Presidential nomination, what with him being on his third wife and his children not even talking to him, the GOP could have a problem going near the Monica Lewinsky thing.