Trends and Oddities in the new Strategic Visions Poll - IOWA (October 12-14)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The most interesting thing about this poll is that it reinforces that Iraq is the big issue, but that voters are making complex calculations about Iraq, not just looking at the candidates' speciffic Iraq proposals. The majority of likely Republican caucus goers (54%) want us out of Iraq within 6 months. Ron Paul, the Republican closest to that view, polls 4%. Almost all (85%) of likely Dem caucus goers favor withdrawal within six months. The three candidates I think of as most associated with that view (Richardson, Kucinich and Gravel) poll 10% between them.

Other poll highlights:

* Clinton has the lead among *likely* Iowa Dem caucus goers for (I think) the first time, 28% to 23%. (The last "likely" poll I've seen had an Obama edge) Edwards reatins some strength among likelies. Biden is up to 6%, so he's not dead for the "strong fourth" he has cited as the minimum he needs to stay in the race after Iowa.

* Romney does much better among likely caucus goers than among registered voters. I should rephrase that... Romney does the same with RV and LV, but among LV the second place candidates are much weaker, giving Romney a bigger lead. The last registered voter poll I've seen (ARG I think) had Romney first with Huckabee and Thompson essentially tied for second, not too far back. (7-8%) But among *likely* caucus goers Mitt has twice the support (25%) of the two second place candidates (12% & 13%), and it's Guliani, not Thompson, tied for second. The scary fact is that Huckabee is tied for second in both.

* Bush is much despised among likely Iowa Republican caucus goers... "Do you see President George W. Bush as a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan?" (Republicans Only)
Yes 5%
No 72%
Undecided 23%

This suggests that there's room for successful negative TV ads *among republicans* tying their opponant to Bush.


http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_101807.htm

[rinsd]

1. Strategic Visions is generally identified as a Republican firm by poll compliers.

So that makes the results all the more jarring.

"* Clinton has the lead among *likely* Iowa Dem caucus goers for (I think) the first time, 28% to 23%. (The last "likely" poll I've seen had an Obama edge) Edwards reatins some strength among likelies. Biden is up to 6%, so he's not dead for the "strong fourth" he has cited as the minimum he needs to stay in the race after Iowa."

In that last SV poll, Clinton was up 2. The last IA poll to have Obama in the lead was Newsweek which had an MOE near 7.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Yes, the republican 54% out of Iraq now number is striking from a pug firm like SV

And the 5% "Bush is like Reagan" is amazing...

[rinsd]

3. I know...that number blew me away.