Don't Fire Until You See The Whites of Their Eyes - Lower Polls Now are Part of Edwards' Strategy

[Tejanocrat]

At the Battle of Bunker Hill in the Revolutionary War, Colonel William Prescott commanded his troops "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes."

This rallying cry was a reminder to the troops that when the opponent is charging, do not waste your ammunition by firing at them when they are still out of range.

This history lesson lies at the heart of the Edwards campaign strategy.

For the primary campaign, Hillary has $35 million on hand, Obama has $32 million on hand, and Edwards has $12.4 million.

In the context of past elections, if you exclude Obama's and Hillary's record shattering fund-raising, Edwards fund-raising is at a record breaking pace.

In the context of the current election, Edwards has more cash-on-hand than ANY of the Republicans and more than twice as much as Richardson (the Democrat with the next most cash on hand) and more cash on hand than the combined amounts of Richardson, Dodd, Biden, Kucinich, and Gravel added together.

In the context of Edwards' third most cash on hand and third most total funds raised, look at the most recent tally of candidates' advertising buys so far:



In Iowa, Edwards has been focused on organization rather than advertising. So far, Hillary has run 37 times as many ads as Edwards, Obama has run 90 times as many ads as Edwards, Richardson has run 116 times as many ads, Biden has run 15 times as many ads, and Dodd has run 50 times as many ads.

You might ask, why is Edwards keeping his powder dry?

Edwards learned from the 2004 Iowa caucus where Dean and Gephardt peaked too early and were already falling by the night of the caucus. Prior experience shows that most Iowa caucus participants will fluctuate in which candidate they prefer between now and the conclusion of the caucus.

Edwards is doing what he should be doing right now: Edwards is focusing on building his organization and on his ground campaign while the others focus on running ads.

While the other candidates are running 37 times as many ads, 90 times as many ads, and 116 times as many ads, those candidates' polling numbers will rise in relation to Edwards' numbers. That's normal and predictable.

Edwards will suffer lower polling numbers now because he won't fire his television ads when the target is out of range. Because his experience in 2004, Edwards knows that it is better to peak on caucus day rather than peaking in October or November or December.

Edwards will run his television spots, and his numbers will surge as a result, but Edwards is timing his shift from emphasizing retail work on his organization to wholesale advertising so that he peaks at the right moment.

Keep the faith that a candidate with the most progressive agenda among the top tier candidates will be at the top of the field on the morning after the Iowa caucus.

[Tejanocrat]

1. "less than a week before the 2004 caucuses, a Gallup press release averred, 'the contest for the

Democratic nomination right now is becoming more of a two-man race between {Howard} Dean and retired Gen. Wesley Clark.'"

I meant to include this in the OP.

[Stop Cornyn]

2. K & R

[rinsd]

3. Thanks for the chart. I assume those are in 1000's?

That is impressive for Edwards(only $45K!) but not so impressive for Obama.

He's spent $4M for a bump of a point or two.

[Tejanocrat]

5. I don't think it's 1000s of dollars. I think it's number of spots actually run.

Here's the article: http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/romney-leads-in-campaign-advertising-clinton-obama-in-tight-website-race-2034/

And here's the Repub ad-buy chart (which shows that Romney is spending c-c-c-crazy money on television spots):

[Nutmegger]

4. R&K #5...

:thumbsup::kick:

Thank you. :hi:

[Bjorn Against]

6. Anyone remember Edwards poll numbers this time in 2003?

If I am not mistaken it was somewhere around 2%, yet he ended up defying nearly everyone's expectations and placing second in Iowa. Polls mean nothing right now, most voters don't even think about the primaries until right before they take place, Kerry and Edwards were both doing poorly last cycle until the Iowa caucuses. Don't rule anyone out yet, Hillary is by no means inevitable.

[smalll]

7. It all makes so much sense -- this is "Phase 2: The Lulling Phase" -

"Lower Polls Now are Part of Edwards' Strategy"-- listen to yourself, man! Get yourself out of denial! At least work your way up to anger, be a a full-throated Hill-hating nimrod! Work your way up to bargaining, maybe, (and beg all the Obamans to "switch to Edwards" because only he can "stop Hillary.") Time's a-wasting: you only have four months left (at most) to reach acceptance!

[Yukari Yakumo]

8. Not four months

Three months.

Actually less than that until the Iowa Caucus.

[Rhythm and Blue]

9. That's my strategy, too.

I've managed to completely fly under the radar, and have avoided wasting a single cent on early campaign advertising. Plus, I've managed to avoid my enemies smearing me; my unfavorables are sitting pretty at 0%.

I think I can say with confidence that I'll still be just as much a viable candidate the morning after Iowa as I am now.

[MethuenProgressive]

10. He's in 4th place - on purpose???

:rofl:
This part is true: It's his fault he's in 4th place.
This thread's dupe, same person posted it twice:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2089020