Zogby online poll vs Conventional polls

[BootinUp]

Zogby Online: note where Huckabee and Gravel are (Thanks to DemocratSinceBirth for assembling the info

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1376


Whom would you NEVER vote for for President of the U.S.?
%

Clinton (D)
50%

Kucinich (D)
49%

Gravel (D)
47%

Paul (R)
47%

Brownback (R)
47%

Tancredo (R)
46%

McCain (R)
45%

Hunter (R)
44%

Giuliani (R)
43%

Romney (R)
42%

Edwards (D)
42%

Thompson (R)
41%

Dodd (D)
41%

Biden (D)
40%

Obama (D)
37%

Huckabee (R)
35%

Richardson (D)
34%

Not sure
4%



Less people say they would not vote for Romney and Thompson than Clinton yet she is waxing them in the polls:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/...


And less people say they would not vote for Guliani and McCain and she is besting them too:



http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/...

[BootinUp]

1. The Zogby online poll was freeped

imho opinon.

They love Huckabee and hate Kucinich and Gravel? How do they even know who Gravel is?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. If I Was Rich I'd Commission My Own Poll

I doubt 49% and 47% of Americans even know who Kucinich and Gravel are...

[hootinholler]

11. Zogby doesn't work that way....

They have a pool of people who have signed up to take surveys. Then they email invitations to a cross section, who then go take the survey.

-Hoot

[BootinUp]

12. I think the results speak for themselves. n/t

[AZ Criminal JD]

3. General election polls mean nothing

Until the candidates are chosen.

[LeftCoast]

4. He doesn't go into methodology much

It's interesting that he claims to have a +/- 1% MOE. I don't know if I've ever seen a poll with such a low MOE before. I'd be quite interested in finding out how he weights "likely voters" as well.

[DeepModem Mom]

5. I looked for recent information on this polling method. Articles from '04 were skeptical...

and these were articles from reputable sources. Zogby himself indicates he continues to tweak the interactive method, and may continue to improve it. But I couldn't find any articles written since '04 evaluating this polling method, which uses self-selected, volunteer online participants.

I'm not a big partisan on this board, posting articles pro and con about all the candidates, but I am concerned that the attention given the Clinton "would never vote for" polling may be misplaced if this polling is viewed by experts as unreliable. I'd really like to see some recent, objective evaluations of the interactive method.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Here

From The Columbia Journalism Review last year, after another one of these Online Zogby polls predicted Gov. Rick Perry would lose in Texas:

"When reached by phone last week, Cliff Zukin, a political science professor and polling expert at Rutgers University, suggests that journalists should generally be wary of any Zogby interactive poll.
'The Zogby stuff, on scientific grounds, is quite questionable,' says Zukin. 'Online, Internet, opt-in polling, where people volunteer to be respondents, doesn't really have a basis in scientific validity. There are two kinds of samples in the world. There are probability samples, and there are non-probability samples.'
The Zogby interactive polls, says Zukin, clearly fall into the latter camp. 'With probability samples, when everybody has a known chance of being selected, you can make pretty valid inferences about the population from which it is drawn," says Zukin. "You can't do that at all with self-selected surveys. That's a problem.'"

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/10/20/143148/38




This is the same pollster whose exit polling showed that Kerry would win IA, NV, OH, FL

Shows you his reliability.


http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/10/20/13445/871

[DeepModem Mom]

10. Thanks, Democrat! I wish this info was in the mix of discussion about the recent poll...

re. HRC. I'm no expert, but it does seem to me that this is an entirely different kind of polling -- as yet, unproven, and the subject of considerable controversy.

[hootinholler]

13. Kerry did win Oh.

Even with the machine shortages cutting people out of the election.

-Hoot

[Rhythm and Blue]

7. This would be the reason why you should ignore online polls entirely. nt

[high density]

8. Zogby online polls are garbage

I was participating in them for a while, but their server is always so slow that it takes great patience to participate. I eventually gave up and stopped taking them.

[incapsulated]

9. Kick, because

I think any online polls, even Zogby, is garbage but of course it's gospel because it's bad for Hillary.

Yeah, and everyone else.