ok he's still in the lead but maybe he'll keep losing ground.
By Dan Smith - smith@sacbee.com
Published 12:00 am PDT Thursday, October 25, 2007
The firm hold former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had on California Republican presidential primary voters is slipping, according to a new Field Poll released Wednesday.
Giuliani's support among likely voters in the Feb. 5 primary has eroded to 25 percent, a 10-point slide since Field's last survey just two months ago.
He still holds a nearly 2-to-1 lead over his closest competitors, however. Support for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson remained virtually stagnant from the August poll at 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively. Arizona Sen. John McCain moved from 9 percent to 12 percent, and second-tier hopefuls – former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas – went from 1 percent each to 4 percent. Nearly a quarter of GOP voters remain undecided.
"The Republican nomination is entering a more contentious phase, and it's not uncommon to go after the front-runner," said poll director Mark DiCamillo. "The party is more fractured. There really is no consensus candidate who unites all the factions."
That analysis was illustrated in Sunday's GOP debate in Florida, in which Thompson slammed Giuliani's position on abortion rights, immigration and gun control and Giuliani questioned Thompson's commitment to tort reform.
But the latest Field Poll showed Giuliani leading his challengers in all subgroups – conservatives, moderates, men, women, under 50, over 50, Southern Californians, Northern Californians, those who consider themselves born-again Christians and those who do not.
"The mayor is still the clear favorite of the voters in California," said Giuliani campaign spokesman Jarrod Agen. "We feel comfortable about where we are now. If you look over time, the mayor has been consistently the favorite in California."
DiCamillo noted that the proportion of undecided voters has increased since the August poll, which is somewhat unusual this close to an election and may indicate a volatile environment in the race.
Poll respondent Jim McGrath, a postmaster from Berry Creek near Oroville, is a Thompson supporter.
"One thing I like is that he is not afraid of political incorrectness," McGrath said. "He doesn't talk like a politician. He talks like a regular guy."
But McGrath acknowledged that he could change his mind before the election. "I still have a lot to learn," he said. "It's still undecided."
Sacramento mortgage adviser Benita Tadena has just started to focus on her choices and told pollsters she hasn't made a decision about the race.
Tadena said she's "looking a little more closely" at Romney and believes Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger have shown that actors – such as Thompson – can make pretty good political leaders.
"I was seriously looking at Giuliani because I thought he did such a great job during 9/11 and is really well spoken," Tadena said. "But I consider myself a pretty strong conservative, and I think Giuliani got a little too far to the other side."
http://www.sacbee.com/111/v-print/story/452593.html
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