The odds still favor Edwards in Iowa

[wyldwolf]

From the University of Iowa's new Hawkeye Poll: The best predictor of someone showing up is having shown up before. In that respect third-place John Edwards is well positioned to challenge Obama and poll leader Hillary Clinton, because "75% of his supporters are experienced caucus-goers. They went in 2004." By contrast, only 54% of Obama's supporters caucused in 2004.

[CK_John]

1. How many will stay home and watch the bowl game. I bet that wasn't polled! n/t

[Debi]

3. Doubtful that any will

Iowans have brains and those who are even considering attending the caucuses aren't going to ditch them now just because the Orange Bowl is on the teevee.

Nice characterization of Iowans though :thumbsup:

[On the Road]

2. The Good News About Edwards's Sinking Poll Numbers

is that he is poised for a big positive surprise in Iowa. Which will lead to momentum going into New Hampshire. I haven't given up hope for an Edwards win.