Brand Spanking New IA, SC, And NH Polls

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[Ediacara]

1. Hmmm Obama's concert doesn't seem to have done him any good

And Romney leads in all three states (in the GOP primary).

[geek tragedy]

2. Edwards at 15% in Iowa? Not buying ARG. n/t

[Colobo]

4. Exactly.

[Adelante]

16. He's dropped four points since the last one

In a poll yesterday he'd dropped six points - that's not a huge difference in polling result. A few more confirming it will tell one way or another.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. That's Why I Look At A Conglameration Of Polls

DSB

[jojo54]

8. My thoughts exactly. A little hard to believe IMO.

[Colobo]

3. These ones Hillary supporters will love.

[denem]

5. Huckabee!

and Thompson dead as a doornail.

[Ediacara]

7. I noticed that!

So much for the big bad television actor...

[rocktivity]

9. Sample sizes (600) too small, MOE (4%) too large

And look at all those undecideds!

:shrug:
rocknation

[ElizabethDC]

11. Isn't that about the usual size of statewide polls?

If you look at this list of Iowa polls: http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php only two of them have a sample size of more than 600.

[rocktivity]

17. That may be true, but the closer the sample size is to 1000

and the closer the margin of error is to 3%, the more reliable a poll is--unless the sample is deliberately skewed.

:headbang:
rocknation

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. TheOther IA Poll Had A MOE Of 5.5 And A Sample Size of 393

DSB

[cobalt1999]

10. I thought this was interesting...

In Iowa, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied among men and Clinton leads Obama among women 38% to 22%.

I don't know the demographics of Iowa caucus goers. Is it male dominated, are females the largest segment, even split historically? The demographic breakdown of caucus goers may indicate more than the polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. 62% Of IA Caucus Goers Are Female

DSB

[cobalt1999]

15. then the results may be more favorable to Hillary than the polls indicate

Or Obama and Edwards are going to have to do some serious wooing of the female voters.

[MNDemNY]

14. Nor sure about Iowa..But my experience

with MN caucus is 60% female.