New Iowa Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 24%, Edwards 24%

[Colobo]

Presidential candidates Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee hold 9-point leads in Iowa with less than three weeks to go before the Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new poll conducted for Lee Enterprises newspapers.

The poll, conducted with 500 likely caucus-goers from Dec. 10 through Dec. 13, said Obama, a senator from Illinois, led in the Democratic race with 33 percent, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who had 24 percent each.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was next with 9 percent, followed by Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., with 3 percent and Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, with 1 percent each.

Five percent said they were undecided.

http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2007/12/14/news/latest_news/6ed995c7ca21cbe5862573b1005dc02e.txt

[TwilightGardener]

1. Hee hee hee!

[Botany]

2. That is way too small of a sample to get a good poll from

not unless those 500 really are a good cross section of Iowa dems.

[Perky]

16. 500 to 600 is about average

And they are only talking to people who are likely caucusgoers. I am not sure if there is alot of diversity in Iowa among caucus goers to begin with.

[Adelante]

23. Only those who caucused in 2004 and 2006

That's a good way to do it. I agree it is the usual size of state polls I've seen.

[maximusveritas]

17. Uh, that's the same size as almost every other poll

Some have as little as 300. 500 is a good sample for likely Democratic voters.

[FogerRox]

31. A 9 pt lead with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent is very significant

The poll, which was conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Sioux City Journal

[Egnever]

3. Wow

thats a pretty dramatic decline over the last month for clinton.

Interesting that edwards remains steady almost throughout.

[rinsd]

4. Huh? Research 2000 just put out a poll today.

http://www.yourconcord.com/primaryblog/monitor_poll_obama_1

* Obama -- 32 percent
* Clinton -- 31 percent
* John Edwards -- 18 percent
* Bill Richardson -- 8 percent
* Dennis Kucinich -- 3 percent
* Joe Biden -- 2 percent
* Chris Dodd -- 1 percent
* Undecided -- 5 percent
* Margin of error: +/- 5 percentage points

[jenmito]

7. That's for NH, not IA. n/t

[Colobo]

8. Mmmmm!

Gobama!

[jenmito]

13. He's on the O-train express to the nomination!

:D

[BenDavid]

19. If he does, then the dems lose and most likely the senate too

[Perky]

21. Funny...I have used the same argument about Hillary

[jenmito]

27. Yeah sure...

that and your other statement that his wife said Black people should vote for him just because he's Black. :eyes:

[Carrieyazel]

36. I doubt anyone is really "ahead" in Iowa.

Other polls show the race as a dead heat in the 20's for all 3 "frontrunners". With Richardson within shouting distance.

[rinsd]

11. D'oh!

[Perky]

Is that Iowa or NH?

[rinsd]

14. It was NH. I goofed.

[JackORoses]

22. oh, you goofed, you mean you weren't deliberately being dishonest as you like to accuse me of being?

[rinsd]

26. I haven't shown a pattern and admitted my mistake.

You on the other hand have been shown you were wrong/dishonest yet plowed ahead anyway.

[JackORoses]

42. First off, there is a difference between wrong and dishonest, correct?

Second I haven't been proven wrong. I said based on the trend, Hillary is done for.
The trend continues.
You will see evidence on Jan 3.

What will you do if Hillary is done for then?

Will you appreciate my prediction, or just chalk it up to luck.

[Perky]

9. Is that Iowa or NH?

[DrFunkenstein]

15. Damn, Obama is Up in New Hamshire, Too!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last I heard he was a point below Clinton. This is great news. Thanks for posting!

[jenmito]

18. And he cut Hillary's lead in SC from 14% to 7%...

and rising.

[TeamJordan23]

25. I'm not too worried about SC. SC will easily fall to Obama if he wins Iowa/NH. nm

[jenmito]

28. I agree. Even if he comes in 2nd in IA to Edwards. n/t

[Adelante]

5. Thanks

I try not to get too excited, but he's making it damned hard. :)

[jenmito]

6. So he's now widening his lead in IA, winning in NH, and catching up to Hillary quickly in SC!

GREAT NEWS! If Obama beats Edwards in IA, Edwards should drop out so his supporters can go to Obama, which, after Hillary's smear attempt, is more likely to happen in NH than before when more of his supporters would've gone to Hillary.

[cali]

10. Looks to me like Obama is really pulling away

He could win big in Iowa, I think.

[Perky]

20. I;ve been predicting 38% for the last month

I may have to push it to 40%

He goes beyond 40% and It might well be over.

[Bullet1987]

24. If Obama wins by more than 10% points

in Iowa...it's probably as good as over for Clinton.

[Carrieyazel]

38. Being ahead in any poll before Iowa, usually means you lose Iowa.

If you're a Democrat, and not the incumbent.
This is not a good place for Obama to be. We've seen it time and time again.

[TeamJordan23]

12. Obama is pulling away.nm

[yodermon]

29. Do Any of these Iowa Polls take into account voters' 2nd choice candidate?

Isn't that the huge wrinkle that could prove all these polls to be Crap?
Isn't Edwards the top 2nd-choice candidate?

[rinsd]

32. In the latest Hotline poll, Edwards was the top for 2nd choice.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/december%202007%20hotline%20data%20-%20iowa.pdf

What we don't get is who is the 2nd choice of whom.

Some polling analysis has talked about Obama and Edwards supporters having one or the other as their top 2nd choice canceling each other out (at least for Iowa) with Hillary doing well with Biden & Richardson supporters. But that analysis is at least a week old.

[Nimrod2005]

30. Obama is running away with it now......nt

[Carrieyazel]

39. I doubt he's running away with it. These primary polls are notoriously unreliable.

[jgraz]

33. Hey, at least Hillary can be one of his advisors

:rofl:

[CoffeeCat]

34. These polls reflect what is happening...

...on the ground in Iowa.

There is such a groundswell for Obama. That campaign is on fire.

Edwards continues his steadfast plan of meeting many Iowans in small,
one-on-one groups. You don't hear much about this, but he is all
over this state, talking with potential caucus goers.

Hillary is not liked here and most are really disgusted
with how she has campaigned. She rudely accused a guy of being a plant--when
he dared to ask her a question about Iran. Then, it turns out she planted
questions at two Iowa events, and lied about it. Everyone is talking
about this.

It's not only to look at the numbers, but to look at the TRENDS. Hillary
is tanking. Obama is rising. Edwards is holding his own.

By the time this thing rolls around--Hillary will be in third place, and
possibly fourth.

I'm proud of my state for weeding out the warmongering, vacuous chaff.

[jgraz]

37. Is it really a groundswell for Obama

or a (whatever the opposite of "groundswell" is) for Hillary? Groundshrink?

[jenmito]

40. Both. n/t

[Carrieyazel]

35. Hard to trust any one poll. And Iowans are notorious for ignoring the polls.

Hard to believe any one candidate has anything above 25-30% in Iowa. Many Iowans still undecided and can change their minds.

[Franc_Lee]

41. Obama and Hillary lost one point each from yesterday?

[loveangelc]

43. Obama supporters shouldn't get too excited yet...

there is still 3 weeks which is a lifetime in politis to go. If Hillary now does well in future polls it will be seen as a comeback.