Edwards is tanking.

[denem]

He has no oxygen with the relentless media concentration on Clinton vs Obama. Given his undertaking to "strengthen rules against highly concentrated media ownership", he's not likely to get it. (1. Obama 2. Edwards, 3. Clinton) in Iowa won't give him the breathing space he needs. The big story will be Obama and Clinton (again) A poor third in New Hampshire seals the deal. The Clinton - Obama show moves on to South Carolina, and he goes nowhere.

Am I wrong?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Yup. Just like Kerry and Edwards were buried by media concentration on Dean vs Gephardt

[Clark2008]

8. I don't remember it that way - all I heard about was John

"Mr. Sunshine" Edwards in the days leading up to Iowa.

:shrug:

[karynnj]

24. He did get theDes Moines Register endorsement then

and the coverage that came with that.

[Adelante]

32. 100% positive press

That's a fact.

[denem]

12. Dean had an attroicous ground campain in Iowa,

Gephardt was the ant-Dean.

[Peregrine Took]

26. Dean's mistake

was to rely essentially upon outsiders to do the groundwork in Iowa. He also had really inept people directing that campaign at the street level, people who seemed to have no real experience running a precinct operation. The result was that he had a really enthusiastic group of workers who were being sent out to work precincts where Dean had no real local presence or organization. I say this from bitter experience, having traveled there from Illinois to spend many freezing days working there and bringing in one or two pluses.

My thought here is to watch out for Edwards. He has a good organization at the precinct level and that is what wins here. Kerry realized this and that is why he triumphed in 2004. This kind of caucus is very hard to predict because it is so dependent on participation and the quality of captain you have present on the actual caucus night. It is really a test of how well you can build a field network. Dean had a lot of workers, almost too many, but no local network. He also overestimated Gephardt's strength, which was largely based on the blue collar unions and was pretty much the remnants of his old organization but more than a decade out of date.

[MadBadger]

2. Yes you are, because starting earlier this week, the media has been stressing Edwards

saying, could the fighting between Obama and Clinton give way to Edwards? Many people believe he can win in Iowa, and it is on from there.

[TwilightGardener]

3. If he wins Iowa, he has a shot.

[Adelante]

4. You're wrong

Iowa will tell. Watch Edwards' media coverage for the next couple of weeks. If it goes positive for him, Edwards could still win Iowa. After that is where he'd probably have to struggle.

[DS1]

5. No, you're not wrong.

Am I wrong?

You're not wrong Walter. You're just an asshole.

All right then.


/mandatory Lebowski cut-in

[redqueen]

11. I thought it was, "No, you're not wrong..."

/stickler

:P

[DS1]

13. isn't that what I wrote?

or are you some sort of nihilist?

[redqueen]

17. D'oh!

I missed the subject line.

:dunce: :blush:



I heart Walter.

"Fair?? Who's the fucking nihilists around here, you bunch of crybabies?" <3

[DS1]

18. bee fucker

x(

[redqueen]

21. Are you implying

that I have a tiny penis?

[DS1]

22. matcom suggested that I was hung like a cigarette the other day

so I wouldn't be one to talk, anyway

[redqueen]

29. You should cut him off.

What an ungrateful person.

[meowomon]

6. Sure what ever you say...

Hillary!

[donheld]

7. Are you wrong?

Laughably

[jsamuel]

9. my response to that is

HA!

[PresidentObama]

10. Tanking? Solid poll numbers in Iowa, a lot of energy, and a strong debate performance.

What are you smoking?

[liberal N proud]

14. It could benefit him, not being in the frey with Hillary and Obama

If the voters see the fighting between candidates that the media is thriving on they could just steer clear and vote for Edwards.

[karynnj]

28. It depends if Obama is seen in the fray

To me it looks more like HRC attacking and Obama pretty gracefully knocking the attacks away. Though they differed on policy issues not personal attacks, it was more like in late February when Edwards attacked Kerry's healthcare and environmental plans as being too expensive - quoting the WP - and Kerry confidently telling him "Don't believe everything you read in the papers. Then, as the Finance committee member he is, explaining why the WP and Edwards were wrong. Just as Kerry didn't bother to attack Edwards, Obama did not counterattack Hillary.

In fact, the strongest personal attacks on Hillary were from someone calling her corrupt owned by corporations - some guy named Edwards. I assume the people of Iowa have longer memories than the media. Edwards going positive now or HRC going positive now will not remove the times they were stridently negative.

[Andy823]

35. The problem

As I see it, is that Obama needs to let this drug thing die, and he isn't. He is using it to his own benefit trying to make money with it, and keeping it in the public eye is not going to be good in the long run.

[surfermaw]

37. The thing with Hill and BO...is paying off for Edwards

Run John Run

[tkmorris]

15. Right or wrong, what interests me is that.........

If you really believe your premise is the case, I would think you'd be pretty angry about it. You don't seem to be. Maybe you are just in a detached, analytical mood today.

[denem]

20. Busted.

The premise was a caricature of comments I've read here, about the all powerful media.

[Cameron27]

16. I don't think so,

Edwards is drafting off the Obama/Clinton squabbling, and may pull ahead of both of them in Iowa. Trippi will continue to score off both Clinton and Obama in the latest drug story. Edwards isn't out by a long shot IMO.

[saracat]

19. Very wrong.He is doing well, staying above the fray and making the others look ridiculous.

Edwards is going to pull this out and many are going to be shocked.Clinton is the one "tanking" for the moment.Edwards is going to prove that a campaign is abpout more than just "money" but it is about choices and judgement.Clinton has exhibited very poor choices and poor judgement. The end has yet to be wrtitten.

[denem]

23. My answer was - Wrong, the media does not decide for the voters.

I am a bit discouraged nobody took up the point about media ownership.

[cali]

25. Iowans clearly don't agree with you

Obama is extending his lead.

[monmouth]

27. Biden will do well in Iowa, sliding JE to a 4 or 5. Biden

connects with everyday people, has the charisma and style Iowans can identify with.

[youthere]

34. I have literall EVERYTHING crossed...

in hopes that you are right! (Man is it hard to sit!)

[frogcycle]

30. neither right nor wrong

nor relevant

you have no knowledge of the future


you are noise

[saltpoint]

31. If Edwards were to win in Iowa, he could survive a 3rd in New Hampshire,

but it would likely be a stronger 3rd than it is pre-win in Iowa.

If Clinton wins in Iowa, she is going to be much more difficult for anyone to dislodge.

If Clinton places third in Iowa behind Edwards and Obama, her path toward the stage in Denver gets a bit steeper.

If Joe Biden surges in the next 2 weeks and places third ahead of one of the current 3 leaders, Biden contends for the nomination overnight.

In the Iowa caucus rules, the threshold support decides where the votes divide between first and second choices. A lot of people who like Gov. Richardson, and for good reason, may give Obama and Edwards enough to shove HClinton into third, and if it's evenly distributed by region, there could be significant showings by Biden and Richardson.

[youthere]

33. Edwards has enormous support here in Iowa...

He's very well liked AND he has an excellent ground game here. Most Iowans you talk to believe that he will win here.In fact, my fellow Iowa DU'ers have been saying it for months. The polls may not reflect it, but I absolutely believe he will win Iowa.

[surfermaw]

36. I have seen Edwards more today

Edwards was on almost every station today, with the media telling how he was coming up in Iowa, I heard him say if you win Iowa the money come in so fast you can't keep up with it..that was an answer to the junk that he doesn't have enough money to finish the campaign, AGAIN Edwards has never been behind. Was one of two debate winners. Now you tell me what is tanking.