if the "Iowa Surprise" happens..

[sniffa]

Poll question: if the "Iowa Surprise" happens..

and one of the "2nd tiers" busts into the top 3 (or even gets one of trophies and finishes 1 or 2), what do you think will happen with endorsements?

[Mojambo]

1. Did it happen with Kerry in 04?

I wasn't really paying attention to endorsements back then.

I'm not really paying attention now either!

[cyclezealot]

2. dont do endorsements

do issues. At a horse race, the opinions of others just might be important.

[earthlover]

4. If there is a true surprise it won't be from obama or clinton winning....

Edwards stands to have the largest chance of being a surprise victor.

This whole question is an interesting one in that, if one of the second tier finished close and beat some of the first tier, what would be the impact? I would predict increased media scrutiny, however the media are so danged dumb that they would still just focus on who won anyway.

So, for example, if Hillary finishes fourth and Biden finishes third....the media are going to be all about Hillary going thud on the floor and they will be all about the victor....Biden beating Hillary will be noted, but I kinda doubt if it will be the headline.

However, this would energize the Biden camp and it would give him more credibility. Heck, many would support him if they thought he had a chance. Maybe coming in a close third would change the dynamic here.

Hillary finishing fourth in iowa would not be a big surprise to me. I predict her to finish third, but fourth is entirely possible.

The race has really transformed. Just recently, if Hillary wins Iowa she wins it all. Now it does not look like Hillary will win Iowa...but now....even if she does, it no longer guarantees her victory. Now THAT is significant!

[lyonn]

3. If that happened then the race will probably become more

meaningful, right now it is a 2 candidate race.

[comradebillyboy]

5. Winning Iowa will be good for the winner

nt

[Azathoth]

6. Depends on who it is

If it's Richardson or possibly Biden, then I think a lot of papers/pols will start reevaluating who they intend to endorse. If it's Gravel or Kucinich or Dodd, then it won't change a thing.