Marin (County, CA) as a Primary Predictor

[Pachamama]

AS WE HEAD for Thursday's Iowa showdown, I decided to take a look at Marin's track record as a predictor of presidential nominees. On the Democratic side it has been quite accurate.

So how is Marin likely to cast its votes in 2008? Results based on an admittedly unscientific "straw" poll of those who read my column revealed the following:

- The percentage of those receiving first-place votes was as follows: Edwards, 31 percent; Barack Obama, 26 percent; Hillary Clinton, 19 percent; Gore, 10 percent. (If my vote were included, it would go to Edwards.)

- The breakdown of second-place votes: Obama, 27 percent; Edwards, 24 percent; Clinton and Joe Biden were tied at 12 percent with Bill Richardson getting 9 percent.

- Those receiving third-place votes: Obama and Clinton tied at 24 percent; Edwards, 21 percent; Richardson, 12 percent; and Biden, 9 percent.

- When all first- through fourth-place votes are totaled, the ranking is Edwards at 31 percent; Obama, 30 percent; Clinton, 26 percent; Richardson, 12 percent and Biden, 11 percent. Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich get less than 5 percent.

This tally is not dissimilar to polling in Iowa, which shows Clinton, Edwards and Obama in what amounts to a statistical dead heat where a late surge could make any one of them the winner.

Obama must, in the final analysis - assuming he gets beyond the experience factor - overcome an unspoken, but deep-seated, skepticism some have regarding his race and the presidency.

Clinton - in addition to surmounting the gender hurdle that may be less problematical - must overcome the gnawing but persistent charge that too many people dislike her and the idea of a second Clinton presidency.

Edwards must convince voters that someone who could not carry his own state in the prior election and has been largely ignored by the media has what it takes to win.

On Jan. 3, Iowans will start to sort this out for the rest of us.

http://www.marinij.com/ci_7847920?source=most_viewed

__________

My County in California is apparentely very good as a predictor for Iowa....lets see if it is this time....My money is on Edwards, then Obama and then HRC....I predict Obama will win NH with Edwards 2nd and it will be a toss up between Obama and Edwards in SC....

Just saying..... :kick:

[dsc]

1. what are you using for your past predictions?

You have historically had a very late primary so, of course, you voted for the winner. You literally didn't have much choice.

[Pachamama]

2. If you read the article in its entirety in the link, you'll see its not my article or stats, its the

findings of the author.... :eyes:

I do know that many polls that have been taken in the past by the newspaper leading up BEFORE the Iowa primaries apparentely were spot on....This is not made clear in this article but has been written about here locally in the Bay Area newspapers.