Des Moines Register&new Strategic Vision Iowa poll Obama leads (32/Edwards 29/Hill 27)

[papau]

not quite the Des Moines Register 32%-26% lead over Hillary - but a confirmation.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/01/new_poll_still_a_toss_up_in_iowa.html

But a few days older polls show Edwards leading (McClatchy/MSNBC), or show Hillary leading (Reuters/Zogby, CNN/Opinion Research, American Research Group).

http://www.intrade.com/news/mainpage.jsp?article=news_160.html

Meanwhile Intrade has Obama at 53.7% likely to win to Hillary's 38.8 (if I am reading it correctly)

[maximusveritas]

1. That's good news for Edwards as well

It is a Republican poll, but it gives some indication that he's not losing ground as the CNN poll suggested.

[papau]

8. I agree - it is going to be turnout that decides the result

[Flabbergasted]

2. kick

[antiimperialist]

3. Insider Advantage said most voters have Edwards as their second choice

Even though with Kucinich's "endorsement" of Obama, Bam should get a boost in that aspect.
Not good news for Clinton.

[papau]

6. Biden and Richardson are likely to often meet the 15% so no second choice change - but Obama may

pick up a bit on second choices of uncommitted and DK.

[Colobo]

4. Hillary will go down!

[annie1]

5. shit.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Obama +2, Hillary -2, Edwards +1 since SV poll last week.

Here a direct link to new poll results --

Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of Iowa. Results are based on telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican caucus goers and 600 likely Democratic caucus goers, aged 18+, and conducted December 28-30, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±4.5 percentage points for each party.

5. If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today between, Joseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (Democrats Only; Names Rotated)
Barack Obama 32%
John Edwards 29%
Hillary Clinton 27%
Joseph Biden 5%
Bill Richardson 2%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 3%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_010208.htm

[papau]

9. Thanks - I was not aware of the SV prior poll results - but it looks like stat "noise" - not trend

1/2/08
Barack Obama 32%
John Edwards 29%
Hillary Clinton 27%

12/28
Barack Obama 30%
Hillary Clinton 29%
John Edwards 28%

12/21
Barack Obama 30%
Hillary Clinton 27%
John Edwards 27%

[jefferson_dem]

10. No problem.

Here's where I got them -- http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[Joe the Revelator]

11. If Hillary comes in third,I think its all but over for her.

The media will start playing up a Obama/Edwards battle, and start forgetting about her. Thats exciting.

[loveangelc]

12. Hillary just may come in third.....:-)