Regional proximity to Iowa favors Iowa candidates (Obama)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

and therefore Obama is the favorite to win Iowa.
Just look at the history. Kerry was the first guy to break through it in 2004.

[BeyondGeography]

1. Maybe...if you forget that Iowa is 95% white

When's the last time a black guy from a neighboring state won there?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. If a candidate is clearly from a neighboring state

then he wins. Color is not a factor here.

[BeyondGeography]

3. Jesse Jackson was from Illinois

How'd he do?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. But Gephardt was from Missouri

and a congressman. And we are talking about the winners of the caucus. But if you insist on comparing Jackson and Obama- knock yourself out.

[BeyondGeography]

5. If you think anyone will cite geographic proximity as part of the story

coming out of an Obama win in Iowa, you can knock yourself out.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. We'll have to wait and see that

but clearly the historical evidence backs it up.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. I guess there is no challenge

to the historic accuarcy of this statement.