Why Obama Will Win Iowa...It's the youth vote stupid, under-represented in polls

[jefferson_dem]

Joe Vogel

Why Obama Will Win Iowa

Speculation runs rampant as we approach the final hours until the Iowa caucuses.

While campaigns spin their respective cases, candidates crisscross the state, volunteers canvass neighborhoods in sub-zero temperatures, and commercials flood the airwaves in an attempt to pick up the final few votes that might make the difference in what most believe to be a statistical dead heat between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards.

While no one, of course, can predict the actual outcome until the results are reported, there are some pretty suggestive signs---a bit less obvious than Mike Huckabee's "Christmas cross," perhaps, but significant nonetheless---for those who look a bit beneath the surface.

I have been arguing for over a year that most polls and pundits are either missing or dismissing what will be the deciding factor in this election: the youth vote.

Most young voters are never called by pollsters. We have cell phones, not land lines; we are first-time voters; we are independents turned democrats. Therefore, we are mostly unrepresented by the polls and invisible to the news media. We are the voting bloc that is consistently written off. We won't show up. We are apathetic. We'll be watching football. This is the way it has been in recent history, and this is the way it will always be. So the argument goes.

Yet if this is the conventional wisdom, the American establishment is in for a rude awakening on January 3 when the headlines go worldwide that a former community organizer, an African American with an unusual name and the most improbable of stories, is on his way to becoming the next president of the United States.

The reality for those paying attention is that Barack Obama has inspired a movement among young people that is broad, deep, and real. For the past year, we have been organizing, blogging, donating, recruiting, conferencing, mobilizing. The Obama campaign has empowered us and we have responded in an unprecedented way.

The respected and historically accurate Des Moines Register confirmed this reality in its most recent poll, when it was found that an overwhelming 56% of young people ages 18-34 are supporting Senator Obama, compared to just 11% for Hillary Clinton and 16% for John Edwards. These numbers, it should be noted, are among "likely caucusgoers."

This evidence confirms what those of us on the ground have been seeing for the past year: hundreds of thousands of previously turned off young people suddenly seriously involved in a political campaign for the first time. This movement, unlike any political campaign since the excitement and participation generated by Robert F. Kennedy before his assassination in 1968, is described from its participants' own voices in a book I helped put together this past fall. While each story was unique, the theme was clear: Barack Obama resonates for our generation. His post-partisan, grassroots, idealistic, yet practical message makes sense to us. And most of us are more cynical towards politics than naïve. We grew up with the scandals and excesses of the Clinton years and the corruption and myopia of the Bush Administration. For us, Obama doesn't represent a savior; he represents hope.

<SNIP>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-vogel/why-obama-will-win-iowa_b_79223.html

[Bitwit1234]

1. Hmmmm I thought it was the youth vote that was going to put Kerry in

AND THEY DIDN'T SHOW UP TO VOTE.

[Renew Deal]

3. Actually, they showed up in greater numbers than ever before.

The republicans also dredged up more voters overall than ever before.

[SteppingRazor]

7. Well, Kerry didn't exactly energize my generation the way Obama has...

the 2004 turnout was based largely on an anti-Bush sentiment, not an overly pro-Kerry one. I think if 2004 taught us anything, it's that being the anti-incumbent is not enough.

Unlike 2004, Obama's supporters represent an actual preference for that candidate. I think Vogel makes a good point that most of the Obama vote is "off the grid" as far as polls are concerned, and I do think it will result in a pretty heavy turnout for the man. Whether it's enough to put him over Hillary is another question. I think it's going to be damn close.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. yeah right

Kerry energizing the youth vote

[SteppingRazor]

17. Neat pictures, but...

I'm sure I could find pictures of Bush speaking to huge crowds in 2000. That doesn't in anyway reflect either candidate's ability to capture the zeitgeist of the 18-34 demo. of a particular election year.

A little more convincing is the fact that, cited elsewhere in this thread, Kerry turned out a huge amount of young voters -- but their difference in the election was diluted by the fact that turnout overall was huge, historically speaking. And again, whether those young voters were voting against Bush or for Kerry, I really can't be certain. I can say, for me, that Kerry wasn't my first choice for the Democratic candidacy (or second, or third...), but that stopping George Bush was all-important in 2004. Of course, that's purely anecdotal, though, so it shouldn't be taken as anything other than one person's opinion.

[NavyDavy]

29. yeah kerry is so like Bush...idiot

[SteppingRazor]

34. Where did I say that Kerry was in any way like Bush?

Other than the fact that both drew large crowds during their first run for the Oval Office, I made zero inference to a similarity between the two. Nor did I suggest for one moment they were remotely similar, policy- or personality-wise.

Additionally, the personal attack you tacked on to the end of your post is pretty fucking sad. If you had simply asked for some clarification, I would have provided it as I did above, with no questions asked. You don't need to resort to name calling. We're all over the age of 5 here.

[Birthmark]

21. That was my first thought, too, BW. eom

[Imagevision]

23. Kerry was yesterday, it's a new ballgame with continued Bush bullsh8T...!

[Patchuli]

27. I heard they showed up to vote

but didn't want to stand in line for 8 hours or so...

[skipos]

2. Not to piss on the parade but the youth vote seems to be pretty unreliable

I'd love to be proven wrong.

Aren't colleges in IA still out?

[B Calm]

5. The only way they would get out and vote would be if they had a military draft!

[skipos]

10. Interesting tidbit

one of the biggest dives in voter turnout is when the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 in prior to the 1972 election, McGovern vs. Nixon.
Now if THAT election didn't get the kids to turn out, I don't know what will.

[jefferson_dem]

15. Perhaps an inspiring, charismatic candidate who reaches out to young people...

promotes policies they can support, and "speaks their language"...? :shrug:

[skipos]

25. And maybe that candidate is Obama

I don't deny he brings out the youth at his rallies. I just hope they all go vote.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Out until January 22. Campaigns were encouraging students to caucus at home, if they are from Iowa.

So far, the campuses remain largely desolate.

Here's an interesting write up -

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-turnout_mccormick_chasejan02,1,3268187,print.story

[KingofNewOrleans]

4. The youth vote isn't underrepresented in polls

If a pollster has to make twice as many calls to fill the 18-34 demographic in a poll than fill the over 55 demographic, then he'll do that.

the 18-34 age group tends to be underrepresented in voting and that's where they have to prove everyone wrong.

[jefferson_dem]

11. If all you have is a cell phone, you are not included in the sampling frame for most polls.

Young people are disproportionately "cell phone only."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. A Good Pollster Is Going To Match His Results To The Census

If 18 to 30 years olds make up , say 15% of the population, they will makeup 15% of the poll... Or he will try to make inference from their participation in previous elections...

[KingofNewOrleans]

18. Exactly, so they keep

calling until they can round up enough of those pesky 18-24 yr olds to fill the model.

[SteppingRazor]

20. But in doing so, have they skewed their results?

If you only get 18-34 year olds who have a land line, then you're only getting a certain kind of 18-34 year old, and a kind that isn't necessarily representative of the generation. I can't think of a single friend my age who has a land line, and I imagine (rightly or wrongly) that those who do have a land line tend to be more-traditional and less-technocratic -- you know, conservatives.

Thus, even if they do get enough 18-34 year olds, the resulting sampling may be skewed toward the more-conservative -- or at least more-traditional -- candidate.

[jefferson_dem]

19. Good point.

Pollsters generally weight their sample in order to reflect the demographics of the population it came from. The question then is whether "cell phone only" voters (including young people) differ in some meaningful way from those who have land lines. Who knows...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. There Are Studies About That

So far surveyors have found no meaningful differences...

[NoPasaran]

8. If Obama actually does have the secret formula that gets young people to the polls

Then I say more power to him and he deserves to win.

But the cynic in me remembers the same kind of thinking pervading the Dean campaign four years ago.

So I'll just wish the OP good luck.

[SteppingRazor]

12. It has worked before though -- McGovern's primary win was definitely a youth movement.

Before that, of course, there wasn't the same sort of youth vote to speak of -- the voting age wasn't 18. And, equally obvious, the young turnout in the primary certainly didn't help things in the general as Nixon stomped McGovern all over the place.

[SaveElmer]

9. We hear the same thing every 4 years...

One candidate relying on some mythical set of voters who have never voted before who are all of a sudden going to appear to put said candidate over the top....I wouldn't hold your breath

[jefferson_dem]

14. You're right, SaveElmer. We've been over this before.

Perhaps this time, we'll be in for a surprise.

Turnout was up dramatically for young people in 2004. Let's hope the trend continues...

[Stop Cornyn]

24. Youths are underrepresented at the polls but they are even more underrepresented at the ballot boxes

[MNDemNY]

26. The "youth vote" seems concentrated in the urban areas.

Seeing as JRE has more support in the rural areas seems to give him the edge in this close race.(The rural precincts are "weighted" heavier than the urban" The student vote will be concentrated in a relatively few precincts, lessening it's effect.

[NavyDavy]

28. there underrated and also don't show up half the time....period

if he wins good if he doesn't good as long as a dem is in the white house...

[surfermaw]

30. He is campaigning like a Republican

And will get republican votes and probably already has some republican money!

[no name no slogan]

31. They said the same thing about Dean/youth vote in '04

and we all know how that turned out.

Good article, but IMHO it's still too close to call.

[Nederland]

32. Heard it all before

Every election we have people telling us that polls are not accurate because a certain segment is underrepresented. The youth vote, cell phones, blah blah blah--we've heard it all before. Maybe this year will be different, but I doubt it.

[question everything]

33. He may. But if he is the candidate, and if McCain

is the Republicans', and if there are regions of the world that will be unstable a few weeks before November, we can kiss the White House goodbye, again.