New Hampshire prediction

[Perky]

I will wager that the next NH poll will show a bump of 15% for Obama and a small erosion of supportfor Hillary.

Given how Independents and women broke in NH and given that NH is an open primary, Obama will win NH with 45to 47% of the vote.

Richardon will drop out.

It is difficult to see how Hillary wins South Carolina if Obama Steamrolls New Hampshire.

Her first competitve win is going to have to wait until Super Tuesday. That is a tough hand to play. Even harder for Edwards given how he is polling in NH and SC.

[msongs]

1. the true progressive will win? dennis kucinich! nt

[Quixote1818]

2. I agree 100%

nt

[Colobo]

3. Obama wins NH, Edwards and Richardson drop out.

[senaca]

16. Why would Richardson drop out after NH?

I think he will stay until the Western states vote in Feb. That would probably be where he has the best chance to place.

[Yupster]

4. Hillary will win Michigan

which is before Super Tuesday and has more delegates than Iowa, NH, and SC put together.

[Exultant Democracy]

8. Lol, Michigan doesn't count thi year so only a fool would bust their ass to win there.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. There is one fool campaigning there:

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080103/NEWS06/801030383

[GalleryGod]

14. ROFL ! Michigan + Florida both.

Sig line sez it for me!

[Yukari Yakumo]

19. And technically, HRC is the only one on the Michigan ballot. {nt}

uguu

[Yupster]

23. Don't you think that in the end

the party will give Michigan and Florida their delegates back in the name of party unity?

I've been operating on that assumption anyway. Maybe right before the convention - the nominee will call for it and will be a hero to those important states.

[SaveElmer]

5. Will be interesting to see what theRass tracking poll says tomorrow...nt

[Perky]

11. You have to wait two days.

There was no polling after the result were known. it was simply too late in the evening.

Nice to know that you have come off the Hillary is inevitable meme

[SaveElmer]

12. I was never on it...

That particular notion is a construction of Hillary's opponents....

I have never said she was inevitable...and in fact have pointed on on numerous occasions that polls are not predictive of outcome...

[SaveElmer]

6. If I had to guess now...

Dramatic shift in support to Obama...coming from both Edwards and Hillary...

If it were held tomorrow he would win in a walk...

With 5 days we will have to see if Edwards new strategy of attacking Hillary to make it a two man race will work (which I highly doubt...Obama's victory will overwhelm whatever Edwards is saying)...or if Hillary's support is as solid there as polls indicate...

Right now odds are Obama will win it...

[calteacherguy]

18. Oh, there you are!

I was wondering where all the Clinton supporters had gone.

:hi:

Glad to see you're a realist.

[goodgd_yall]

7. HRC wins by a small margin

Obama 2nd, Edwards 3rd. New Hampshire is proud of being independent. Just to prove it, the voters will vote HRC instead of following Iowa and voting Obama to a win.

Richardson and Edwards remain in race. Richardson drops after Nevada (which Hillary will win quite handily). Edwards will continue until after Super Tuesday.

[FlyingSquirrel]

10. Hmmmm, here's a more LIKELY scenario:

Clinton's numbers have been steadily declining in NH while Obama's have been steadily rising. Edwards' numbers have also been rising, but much more slowly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

Suddenly, Clinton places third in Iowa while Obama wins it big. Soft supporters of HRC in NH can see the handwriting on the wall. Suddenly, they have a choice: Continue to support her losing candidacy while Obama's juggernaut continues unchecked, or move to Edwards in hopes of turning it into a two-person race. Methinks a lot of NH voters who are uncertain about Obama's chances in the GE will move JE's way, giving him a very large bump and a second place win in NH. Then guess what? He gets to claim that his campaign has momentum. The money starts flowing his way. The media attention starts flowing his way. All of a sudden it's a two-person race; nobody expects JE to win in SC so that's not an issue. Any misstep by BO at this point becomes magnified a thousandfold.

Well, it could happen.

:crazy:

[GalleryGod]

15. Sure it could.

But won't.

[BringBigDogBack]

13. This is how I see it as well

[calteacherguy]

17. 10% bump for Obama. nt

[rox63]

20. I think Obama will win NH by a narrow margin, closer than Iowa

With HRC 2nd and JRE 3rd. Richardson will probably drop out. Then I see Edwards sticking with it until SC, but dropping out if he doesn't win there. I think Both Obama and HRC are both in it through Super Tuesday. After that, we'll probably have our nominee.

[Yukari Yakumo]

21. I say only a 7% bump for Obama.

But that still could be enough to put him ahead of HRC.

I expect Obama to win in a close one with Hill. Edwards will be a distant 3rd (and soon a memory).

[ericgtr]

22. Though I am an Obama supporter

I do think many are a little quick to count Hillary out. Granted a 3rd place showing does not set a good pace for her in NH I just hate to see all the Obama supporters (me included) get slapped in the face with a Howard Dean. I think Hillary still has a chance and hope that Obama remains diligent and dignified because the Hillary attack machine is about to rain down on him.