I don't see how Obama can lose NH

[cali]

without a major gaffe or a scandal. NH's SoS is predicting a record turn out. He has virtually all the momentum from Iowa and a great speech. According to the director of NHPR, independents look like they're going to break for him. Hillary just made her Rudy speech, and that certainly won't help. Obama has held his own in all the debates. There's no reason to think he won't do the same on Saturday. If Clinton and Edwards aren't careful with their attacks it'll backfire- badly. And then there's the young people factor, and no reason to think that won't be repeated.

Obama sounds confident and enthusiastic. Clinton may not sound desperate, but she sure comes off that way, and Edwards really doesn't have but a sliver of a chance.

We'll see what the polls show tomorrow, but even if the don't reflect a big bump, it's Obama's to lose.

[MadBadger]

1. Unless Obama lays an egg in the debate tomorrow...

He will win, that is my prediction.

[aquart]

4. Like that winner, Biden?

[MadBadger]

8. Talking out of your ass again?

Point to a spot where I ever said Biden will win or even had a chance in hell of winning.

[KittyWampus]

55. Almost every other DU'er has been so understanding to Biden supporters. You are the lone ass.

Congratulations.

[Alexander]

60. More like the "inevitable" Hillary.

You're really spreading the sunshine and cheer around today. Congratulations on being so unpleasant.

[MADem]

6. Or at the 100 Club tonight.

I honestly think the field is closer in NH. Who knows, though?

I don't know any pollsters.

[annie1]

24. or unless she does really well. if she lays out an agenda, she...

could do very well. and now that there are fewer people in the debate, it could happen. but then again, so far, she doesn't do linear very well. :(

[sandnsea]

2. If the Indies go to McCain

because they think Obama doesn't need their support and they don't want the huckster or the bushbot to win.

[ronnykmarshall]

11. Talk about rising from the dead!

Who would have thunk ol' grumpy McCain is back in the race?

[sandnsea]

36. Who else do they have?

What a ridiculous field, has there ever been anything like it? I wouldn't be surprised if McCain wins it, I'm not sure how any of the others can.

[ronnykmarshall]

42. They could dig up Nixon!

[sandnsea]

46. Nixon/Reagan

And you know what, I bet there are plenty of Republicans who would rather have two dead guys than one live Democrat.

[MadBadger]

16. I just dont buy that the Obama and McCain are fighting for the SAME independents

I think the anti-war ones will go for Obama and the pro-war ones go for McCain.

[H2O Man]

27. Good point.

I think McCain hurt himself in the past 24 hours. His little outbursts tend to be a negative.

[sandnsea]

37. I hope so

I don't understand independents anyway. Pick a side already.

[ieoeja]

43. Which side does a hawkish, pro-gun, pro-civil rights union member pick? n/t

[sandnsea]

44. Hawkish? Probably McCain n/t

[JI7]

45. i think difference may be more in age, younger ones for Obama , Older ones McCain

[MadBadger]

50. Well that also goes hand in hand with their politics

The younger you are, the more likely you are to be liberal and anti-war, and then as you get older, the more conservative one can become. Not always true but a trend.

[aquart]

3. So he's inevitable?

But with him it's a good thing? Of course. No hypocrisy on DU.

[MadBadger]

18. The OP is talking about NH, not the entire country

Chill out.

[MannyGoldstein]

5. NH Traditionally Votes For The Most Forthright Candidate With A Chance Of Winning

Obama should be a shoe-in.

[Cameron27]

14. How has he been the most forthright?

How has he been more forthright than anyone else running?

[MADem]

15. But they don't always win the nomination. After all, Clinton came in second in NH and won.

McCain came in first...and didn't win.

[MannyGoldstein]

26. Oh, You're Absolutely Right

Who knows what will happen down the line.

[duderonomy]

7. People are funny sometimes

Sometimes being a frontrunner can hurt you down the line... people may vote for another candidate because they think another has it sewn up anyway, or to give someone else a hand up. Stranger things have happened.

[THUNDER HANDS]

9. If I were Clinton or Edwards, I would NOT go negative

going negative on Obama is not a smart move. Some candidates are just - to use an old SNL Bill Clinton quote - bulletproof.

[Stop Cornyn]

10. Hillary didn't see how she could lose it either.

[cali]

22. I'm sure she didn't, but that was months ago.

This is now, after Iowa. Are you actually going to deny he doesn't have the edge?

[Stop Cornyn]

31. Of course not. I posted elsewhere they're standing at Obama 36%, Hillary 27%, Edwards 25% based

on adding 10% to Obama's support in the most recent pre-Iowa Zogby poll of New Hampshire primary voters, adding 5% to Edwards' pre-Iowa number, and subtracting 5% from Hillary's pre-Iowa.

These adjustment are roughly what you see in New Hampshire as a result of Iowa (actually Kerry got a bigger bump than +10% for first and Dean got a bigger penalty than -5% for third, but +10%, +5%, and -5% are good average numbers considering several past elections).

[rox63]

12. HRC has the backing of most of the NH Dem party establishment

That said, I hope Obama wins anyway. I think it will be closer than Iowa was.

[Nederland]

35. And that's why she'll lose (nt)

[sandnsea]

38. He's got Hodes and Shea-Porter

I think he's okay with the Party in NH. He's also got Deval Patrick and whatever he and some of the Mass Dems can bring to it. I wish Kennedy and Kerry would take a stand though. They could end this right now.

[TwilightGardener]

13. Hey jinxy, keep it to yourself!

;)

[annie1]

17. He'll win. and he'll win SC too. Sooooooo too bad for hil MI and FL are out....

that really fcuks her up big time.

[Ravy]

19. One other potential factor...

I would expect a greater percentage of independents to vote on the Republican side in NH, to boost McCain over Romney. This may cost Obama a few points.

Coupled with a wake up call for the Clinton campaign, and with Edwards probably garnering some additional support from the loss of Biden and Dodd from the race, it will be an interesting primary season.

[MadBadger]

20. Don't Assume the majority of Biden/Dodd supporters will go to Edwards though

[JI7]

21. i'm leaning towards Hillary winning New Hampshire

unlike Iowa the Clinton's have experience in NH. i think Bill is more popular there than Iowa also.

it might also depend on whether most indies decide to go McCain or Obama.

for some reason i see the NH outcome as being Hillary and McCain or Obama and Huckabee.

if Obama wins NH could Edwards come in 2nd ?

[OHdem10]

23. Independents are loving McCain again.--Wise old Sage in troubled times.

Hilary and Bill have large share of warmth and love.


There are many miles to go before the contender is named nominee

[H2O Man]

25. Interesting.

I think it may be closely contested. However, Senator Obama has the advantage of the majority of people being impressed by his showing and speech yesterday.

Still, both Senator Clinton and former Senator Edwards are very capable campaigners, and both have outstanding communication skills. With Senators Dodd and Biden dropping out, I am curious where people think their supporters will go? Do you see that as a factor?

[cali]

28. I don't think the Biden and Dodd supporters are a big factor.

And in NH, almost 40% of people are supposedly undecided. Add that to the huge number of independents and the forecasts I heard today from political pundit Eric Davis of Middlebury College and another political NH pundit, that they expect the indies to break for Obama. Mainly, I just don't see that 4 days is enough to slow his momentum.

[H2O Man]

33. Good point.

It may be difficult in a 4 day period to try to counter the momentum from Iowa. My oldest son's SO is from a strongly republican family. She is nice, though. She attends the state university, and is into theater. Though not political, she has said that she thinks Senator Obama has an edge over any other candidate, based on his presntation. Four days does not give much time to go very negative, or to plant seeds of doubt.

[Rockholm]

29. It's NH. Anything is possible.

[Tom Rinaldo]

30. I expect Obama to win NH

Hillary is in trouble certainly. She has to avoid being blown out in NH because that would give the impression of the primaries becoming a rout. She can finish second though and stay in about as poor a place as she is today. If she wins NH it is once again a new ball game. If Clinton loses but does so respectfully Obama will be the new front runner which has a silver lining for Clinton (one that she would gladly trade places and let Obama have however). Obama will come under greater scrutiny and it will become easier for Clinton to exceed lowered expectations.

Clinton has the money and organization to stay in this race through Super Tuesday at the earliest. If she can snag a victory in Nevada she will remain viable if her campaign can turn a positive corner. She doesn't have to turn it all around in four days. That is the Edwards challenge, not Clinton's. Obama can still stumble. There are high profile debates yet to be held.

Clinton has to go into Super Tuesday with a swell of momentum building for her. She still has time to find the right keys to unlock that support for her. She still has the organization and the funds she needs to compete in expensive delegate rich states. The media will not ignore Clinton which now plays to her advantage. If she finds a newly tooled pitch that resonates with crowds that will be picked up on and reported. There is drama in anyone coming back from behind, so if Clinton can tap into that script it can help lift her back to a strong position by Super Tuesday.

[Stop Cornyn]

32. Obama wouldn't be the first politician to regret discounting the Clintons' chances in New Hampshire.

[MadBadger]

34. I dont think he is discounting her chances.

[Stop Cornyn]

39. The OP seems to think otherwise.

[MadBadger]

40. She is expressing her opinion on things and what she has seen and heard

Nowhere in the OP does it show what Obama himself is thinking. Im sure he is optomistic, but I doubt he is discounting the Clintons.

[SaveElmer]

41. Word of warning...I heard the same thing last year about Lamont...

Once he had beaten Lieberman in the Democratic Primary...post after post declaiming Lieberman's political epitaph...using almost the same verbage as your subject line...

[Tejanocrat]

48. Shit, I heard the same thing about Hillary in New Hampshire not 4 weeks ago (something about a

firewall or something like that).

[SaveElmer]

52. Not from me you didn't...nt

[FlyingSquirrel]

47. I don't see how it matters.

I agree, Obama will win NH.

But the real question is this: If Edwards pulls off an improbable second-place finish instead of HRC, coming from WAY behind, and with WAY less money, will he finally get some props from the media? Will they finally do what they've done before and start giving the top two contenders the same attention?

[Mike03]

49. You could well be right, but

why doesn't Edwards have a chance?

Cali, I honestly don't understand your antipathy for Edwards. As far as I can tell, he's the only candidate who gives a damn about Universal Health Care, which--after Iraq--is the most crucial issue I can think of.

Why don't you like Edwards? He seems like a really good human being to me.

[cali]

53. mike, I don't think he has a chance

because of how weighted the system is toward those with fat campaign chests. And my antipathy toward Edwards- though I like what he says- comes from my distrust of him. I really didn't like the Fortress gig or his investments with them. If his message weren't what it is, I'd just shrug in mild distaste, but there's something about someone saying they went to work for a hedge fund to learn about poverty, that rubs me all wrong. A hedge fund is about as corporate as it gets. And socially conscious investing isn't exactly new or unproven. There's no need to invest your wealth in a way that shelters your assets in off shore accounts.

[Mike03]

56. Cali, as you know I respect your opinions highly.

You have clearly been very thoughtful about your decision and understandably have a deep distrust of Edwards' investments.

Excluding Edwards, if you very much cared about universal health care, which of the remaining candidates would you vote for?

[Mike03]

59. Are you worried that Obama might be in over his head?

Has he, in your opinion, paid enough attention to the issues of domestic working class Americans?

[no name no slogan]

51. He's got the mo, but it's still pretty close to call

Obama won by a decent spread, but the media is making it out like he tarred and feathered Clinton and Edwards. He's the frontrunner, but it's still a fairly close three-way race.

[sendero]

54. I agree...

... but I worry about Obama going up against McCain in the general.

As far as I'm concerned, he's the only one that would be tough to beat.

[K Gardner]

57. I don't see Obama losing New Hampshire either. n/t

[Mike03]

58. My other concern about Obama has to do with "alleged" comments

he has made about invading Pakistan.

Does anyone know if it is true that he has said the U.S. should invade Pakistan?

I seriously doubt he would DO it, but it concerns me that he would say that he might.

My source for this is admittedly vague: The Ray Taliafero progressive Newstalk program on KGO, San Francisco.