NH POLL: Hillary 35 (+4), Obama 31 (+4), Edwards 15 (-6), before any Iowa "bounce"

[jefferson_dem]

ARG: Hillary Barely Ahead Of Obama In NH, Before Iowa Caucus Was Held
By Eric Kleefeld - January 4, 2008, 3:29PM

American Research Group has their first daily tracking poll out for New Hampshire, composed of data collected before the Iowa Caucus — thus making it an effective benchmark for measuring the changes in days to come. Here are the numbers, as compared to their previous poll from last week:

Democrats:
Clinton 35% (+4)
Obama 31% (+4)
Edwards 15% (-6)
Richardson 5% (+0)

Republicans:
McCain 35% (+5)
Romney 25% (-5)
Huckabee 12% (+1)
Paul 9% (+2)
Giuliani 8% (-1)

ARG's final Iowa poll was amazingly off the mark, but their real specialty is polling in New Hampshire, where they are based. So this one is probably worth taking seriously, with their solid record in local elections.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/arg_hillary_barely_ahead_of_obama_in_nh_before_iowa_caucus_was_held.php

[rinsd]

1. The 4 pt separation is in line with other polling (except for Suffolk)

[Sulawesi]

3. Is Suffolk the one that seems to have HRC well ahead?

[rinsd]

7. Suffolk tracking has her with a 12 pt lead.

[Hippo_Tron]

2. Yea but it's ARG take it with a shaker of salt

They were dead wrong about last night.

[jefferson_dem]

4. Yeah, I know.

This firm has generally produced more Hillary-favorable digits.

Note the caveat about NH being their homebase, however.

Since it's a tracking poll, at least we'll be able to gage movement in any direction.

[HeraldSquare212]

5. I don't see how Edwards could survive coming in that far behind the pack (well, pack of two)

[still_one]

6. ARG wasn't particularly accurate with regard to Iowa if I recall

Sorry, just read the tail end of the original OP saying the same thing

[rocktivity]

8. If we've learned ANYTHING AT ALL from Iowa

PLEASE let's start taking these polls with a grain of salt...hmm...better make that a PILLAR of salt!

:headbang:
rocknation

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Some of the polls were correct, especially that DMR poll.

Of course, it's far harder to poll a caucus than it is a primary. I think the New Hampshire polls will be mostly right on the nose, excluding a few.