Could be a brokered Democratic Convention.

[Infinite Hope]

Obama will continue to do very well as well Hillary. I think if Edwards finishes with at least 18% in New Hampshire that he can consider it a strong night in a state like New Hampshire. Then going into Nevada and South Carolina, he should continue to do well. Then suddenly you have the mass of Feb 5th states which, given three strong candidates, no one (or two) candidates can campaign effectively enough in all of them in a few short days to to change what is a 3-way race. What you end up with is convention where the delegates are split amongst Obama, Edwards, and Hillary. I doubt 2 of the 3 will end up on the same ticket because none balance another well. So negotiations will have to occur another way - perhaps promising Edwards the Attorney General position on an Obama ticket in exchange for his delegates (this, assuming Obama has a greater number of delegates than Edwards).

For the record, I'm an Edwards supporter. And for the record, Obama's Jan. 3rd Iowa speech moved me. It was the first time he's lived up to all the hoopla of being articulate. In the past, his speeches are filled with uh's and um's and lacks flow. His speech on Jan. 3rd was excellent, moving, and flowed. It was even...inspiring.

[Colobo]

1. A third place for Edwards in NH spells doom for him.

[Infinite Hope]

5. New Hampshire is a place where he's always been expected to take 3rd. It doesn't spell doom.

And no analyst even portrays it that way. A weak 3rd place finish could spell doom (10-15%). But if he's over 20%, that would be a huge bump from all polling throughout the race. I saw one poll that shows him at 20% in polls now following Iowa. If he got a 5-6% bump out of Iowa, that's huge going into his territory (Nevada/South Carolina). He'd need to do very well in those 2 states to continue. If we doesn't, *then* it's over.

Now, if Obama wins in a landslide in New Hampshire, then he's going to take it all the way regardless of the finish of Edwards and Hillary. Though they both have strong enough followings that one (or both) could take enough delegates the rest of the way to prevent Obama from having a majority before the convention.

[DrFunkenstein]

2. Clinton's Rationale Was Inevitability

I don't think that is going to go very far for the people who planned to hold their nose and vote for her.

[journalist3072]

9. Not true at all. Neither she or her campaign has ever said she was inevitable.

They've been fighting for each and every vote. It's the MSM that's painted her as inevitable, and then wants to say that HER camp has said it. Not true.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. No

But I think Hillary and Obama can keep it alive through June unless she completely implodes...

[Yupster]

4. I reallly don't see it

I can't see where Edwards starts winning states - especially since he's just not going to get a whole lot of press.

I think a brokered convention is much more likely on the other side, but probably not there either.

[Infinite Hope]

6. Far more likely on the Democratic side. n/t

[Yupster]

8. I guess I could see

a delegate percentage breakdown of something like

Obama 47 %
Hillary 42 %
Edwards 9 %
Richardson 2 %

but I don't see that as a brokered convention. Edwards throws his delegates to one or the other. There aren't any intrangident candidates that are going to stay in regardless of party pressure.

On the Republican side I can see

Giuliani 20 %
Huckabee 26 %
Romney 12 %
McCain 25 %
Paul 12 %
Thompson 5 %

The reason is that the Evangelical delegates aren't going to let their guys throw their support to Giuliani or maybe McCain either, the Giuliani supporters are not going to allow Giuliani's delegates to get behind Huckabee. And Ron Paul's not going anywhere and he's going to have a decent amount of delegates.

If there was a Ron Paul in the Democratic side, Id say a brokered convention more likely.

[Infinite Hope]

11. At the rate things are going, Obama may have high-30's, but not 47%.

He'll win some, Hillary probably will win some, and Edwards may win a couple; all having strong finishes in individual states even when coming in third. You're more likely to see an end result in the neighborhood of Obama 38, Clinton 31, Edwards 31. (Ballpark, give MOE of 5%)

[Yupster]

12. I don't see Edwards winning any states

or any seriously contended states anyway.

Of course I sure could be wrong.

[iamjoy]

7. I Hope So

Even though I'm in Florida and a brokered convention means we will likely be shut out of the whole thing. I would rather see something interesting unfold rather than have the nominee all but certain before Groundhog Day.

[ozone_man]

10. I think you're right.

Edwards will do a lot better in many other states besides NH where he never was expected to, like Clark for example.

Another factor is the worsening economy, which is accelerating downwards, so a populist like Edwards who speaks to the working class and middle class is going to gain support versus the two corporate leaders. If Hillary falters, then this gives Edwards an opening to go one on one with Obama, who really is not about change at all.

So in my scenario, the worsening economy will help showcase what corporatism has done to the country. It will become glaringly obvious, offering Edwards the chance to speak to what the MSM and status quo candidates hate to hear. He's doing that now of course, and it's working, but give it another month or two as we head into recession.

Even if Edwards doesn't make it, his campaign and debates will be well worthwhile and make for an interesting convention.