CNN/WMUR No Bounce

[KennedyGuy]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/CNNWMUR_No_bounce.html

CNN/WMUR: No bounce


I got an early look at the CNN/WMUR poll taken Jan. 4 and 5, and contrary to conventional wisdom there is not much bounce for Obama.

Here are the numbers:

Clinton 33 percent

Obama 33 percent

Edwards 20 percent

Clinton has lost 1 point and Obama has gained 3 since the last poll, but there is no significant movement in a poll that is likely to set the tone for the next few days of coverage.

[speedoo]

1. uh huh.

So you are ignoring other polls, like Rasmussen, showing a big bounce?

Okey dokey.

[MadBadger]

2. And ARG

[OnTheOtherHand]

8. first of all, the OP is quoted in full

which is not great form, but hey, this is what it is. "No bounce" is a silly headline: the poll shows a possible small bounce (ETA: maybe bigger, maybe nothing -- the sample is too small to say).

The blog item has also been revised to cite another poll (Concord Monitor/Research 2000) that also shows Obama and Clinton very close (34/33).

ARG and Rasmussen give Obama double-digit leads.

Given the small sample sizes and all the difficulties reaching people and the fact that a lot of them don't yet know what they think, we might have enough info to make sense of this by, oh, Tuesday night or so.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. There will be a bounce.

Some polls have shown it, others have not. But I bet by Tuesday, Obama will be up 7+. Bookmark this, do whatever you want, but this is what I believe.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

4. if her performance today is any omen,

she is not exactly riveting the crowd.

[journalist3072]

6. Maybe because people aren't looking to be excited. They're looking to be EDUCATED.

And they are LISTENING as she answers their questions and explains her policy positions.

Geez.

[Vinca]

5. Is this a poll of registered Democrats only? nt

[Dems Will Win]

7. I heard WMUR is a conservative outlet and its now the Clinton New Network

They had an outlier poll showing her way up before

[OnTheOtherHand]

10. "outlier poll"

If you mean the one in mid-December, ARG looked pretty similar. And the more recent poll was in line to low-side.

Polls bounce around, and it is very hard to poll in December for an early-January first-in-nation primary.

[Tesha]

13. WMUR used to be very conservative, but was bought-out by Hearst-Argyle.

WMUR used to be very conservative, but was bought-out by
Hearst-Argyle, the same folks that own WCVB, Boston TV-5.

They're now pretty middle-of-the-road typical "centrist"
MSM, whatever that means nowadays.

Tesha

[FogerRox]

9. Thats the best Edwards margin I can recall

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey has HRC up 4 pts.

http://cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002652113

[Drunken Irishman]

11. heh, funny you say no bounce, but CNN is calling it a bounce for Obama & Edwards.

[maxanne]

12. be wary of NH polls

I don't know who is doing the WMUR poll - but WMUR is the next best thing to GOP TV. If it has anything to do with UNH pollster Andy Smith - let's just say that Andy called 2006 so wrongly that I can't believe anyone listens to him any more.

The Rasmussen poll was done last night - they called me. They asked if I was a Republican or a Democrat. It seemed unbiased, and all of the candidates were mentioned. (unlike other polls that have tried to limit choices)

This ain't Iowa, people. Stop expecting it to be.

[Tesha]

15. This isn't really true since they were bought out.

> I don't know who is doing the WMUR poll - but WMUR
> is the next best thing to GOP TV.

This isn't really true since they were bought out (see
my reply above). We used to call them WGOP, but today,
they're pretty much ordinary.

Tesha

[maxanne]

17. slightly better

I don't see a huge difference (they don't cover activist events at all) but you're right, it's slightly better.

They've moved from far right to center right.

[jefferson_dem]

14. No bounce? You wish. According to the write-up...

“Both Obama and Edwards appear to have benefited form the Iowa caucuses. Each picked up 3 points in New Hampshire. Clinton lost one point, since our last poll taken before the caucuses,” says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/05/tight-race-in-new-hampshire-post-caucus-poll-shows/

[Adelante]

16. And Obama picked up 13 points on electability

Clinton dropped 9. I call it a bounce.