Obama rose 13 points in "electability" - Clinton dropped 9 in NH poll (tied)

[Adelante]

The biggest shift appears to be electability. 36 percent of likely Democratic New Hampshire primary voters now think Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republican presidential nominee. That’s down nine points from our last Granite State survey, which was conducted December 27-30.

Obama is just behind Clinton when it comes electability, at 35 percent, a virtual tie. Obama gained 13 points up since our pre-caucus poll.

“Obama got something else out of winning Iowa: a big boost in his perceived electability. A week ago, Clinton led Obama by better than two to one when New Hampshire Democrats were asked which candidate has the best chance of beating the Republican in November. Obama’s victory in an overwhelmingly white state may have resolved some doubts about an African-American candidate’s electability,” says Schneider.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/05/tight-race-in-new-hampshire-post-caucus-poll-shows/

[Perky]

1. Beware small sample size

+/- 5 means a very small sample.

[Adelante]

2. It's normal for a state poll, an MOE like that

I would say beware polls days before a NH primary, though :D

[Sparkly]

3. How come, WesDem? nt

[Adelante]

4. State polls generally have smaller sample sizes

Therefore, larger MOEs. If you watch, you will see it. It's not always true that it's a small sample size, but most often it is, and when it is, the MOE is larger. The mathematics of it escape me - I am really bad at it. But I do track polls for entertainment, so I am sure this is the case.

[Sparkly]

6. I mean, why beware of polls days before a NH primary?

Or is it the same reason?

[Adelante]

7. Bad luck and ornery voters

:rofl:

No real reason, except the voters are so independent minded in NH. Half of them say they are still undecided two days before an election. They ain't giving it away.

[Sparkly]

8. So they say...

I dunno about that. ;)

[Evergreen Emerald]

5. people are so fickle. That is why these polls mean nothing

or nearly nothing.

[BenDavid]

9. So now you obama folks disregard the abc poll but on

the 19th of november when the abc poll came out, hell it was your raison d'etre...What? You all find a poll you like that shows obama leading or catching up and you post that irregardless of what other polls say....I take polls as they come in. look em over and even turn the page to get the inside look at the poll....

That was good that HRC thus far has withstood the bounce by Obama. Maybe tonight she will go for his jungular and show the people what we all know about him....All hat NO CATTLE....