If Hillary can't win in her own backyard (NH), it maybe time to hang it up

[itsrobert]

What's the consensus?

[KennedyGuy]

1. When Edwards gives up and endorses Obama in a debate

is it time to concede?

[robbedvoter]

2. NH is hardly NY's backyard - but I agree it would be pretty bad to lose there

However that would bring Super Tuesday into play - and that makes my vote relevant.

[itsrobert]

8. Compared to the West, (where I'm at) NH is pratically sitting on top of NY

n/t

[pnwmom]

12. Coming from the west, you know nothing about New England politics.

New Hampshire and suburban NYC are light years apart.

[itsrobert]

15. okie dokie

lol

[Bishop Rook]

47. New Hampshire's an oddity even in New England

Nevermind comparing it to the rest of the Northeast...

I got a real kick when my dad told me a Huckabee representative claimed New Hampshirites would like Huckabee because he voted for some tax increases to pay for education. Tax increases for education?? This is New Hampshire we're talking about--the only state in the Union with neither a state income tax nor a state sales tax. And this is New Hampshire Republicans we're talking about. The "T" word is verboten.

I'm similarly amused when people think Mitt Romney will get a boost in NH by being from Massachusetts. As if New Hampshirites would vote for a Masshole.

[pnwmom]

48. That sounds like the NH I know. Welcome to DU, Bishop Rook! n/t

[Bishop Rook]

50. Thanks

Though I admit I have impure blood. My mom's from outside Laconia, my dad's from Chelsea. They compromised and I grew up in Derry.

[SoxFan]

52. LOL

Best description of Derry I've ever heard! Chelsea plus Laconia, mix and shake well.

My folks are originally from Somerville, and I grew up in Kingston. I know exactly what you're talking about.

[pnwmom]

53. You're making me miss the east coast.

Things are much blander here in the west. There are differences, of course, but not like what you'd find in New England between one area and another. And to compare upscale suburban NY with NH -- what a laugh.

[SoxFan]

55. Small, cold, triangular states

I lived in Louisiana and Arkansas for several years and nobody ever seemed to be able to remember which state I was from (New Hampshire). "You're from Connecticut, right? No? Oh, it's that small, cold, triangle state....Vermont! That's it!"

Fortunately, I was the only person from any of the small, cold states in my law school class, so when I made my usual mistake of leaving my keys in the library or a classroom, the Sox keychain made it easy for the finder to return them quickly.

I won't even begin to describe the looks I got when i explained that only half of Connecticut is really part of New England. They couldn't grasp the notion that there is a Mason/Dixon Line somewhere around Hartford where The Evil Empire ends and The Nation begins...

[robbedvoter]

26. We're a bit more packed here in North East. The 3 state area is the backyard of NY

Other than that, NY is not a very popular state around - so, geography is no advantage for Hillary (or Giuliani for that matter)

[Muttocracy]

37. Northeast, not New England

Somehow New England went from small place (5 tiny states and Maine) to the whole Northeast. Earlier today I corrected someone about Biden being a New Englander (born in PA, most of life in DE?)

Suprising differences within New England too - NH is not the same as MA.

[pnwmom]

49. Welcome to DU, JoeIsOneOfUs!

[elleng]

45. ROBBED, IS THAT YOU????

Well, lots of us have been robbed already, considering what just happened in Iowa!

EllenG

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. Silly post. Edwards couldn't win in Iowa where he camped out for 4 years

He didn't need to hang it up either. New Hampshire does not share a border with New York. Boston is a lot closer to most people in New Hampshire than NYC is by hundreds of miles. Boston is the main media market serving NH. New York is not considered part of New England for historic and cultural reasons. New Hampshire is bedrock New England. New Hampshire is no more Clinton's back yard than Iowa was Edwards back yard.

[catnhatnh]

23. Actually, in the last year....

Obama had more 15 more paid staffers (145/130), spent 2 more days (51/49) and opened more than twice as many offices (31/15)than Edwards. But go ahead with the "Edwards lived there" meme if you find it helpful....

[Tom Rinaldo]

25. I referenced four years, not just the last one.

It was a good strategy for Edwards to attempt, to build a strong base early in Iowa, capitalizing on his popularity there in 2004. Especially since he, as you point out, was not in a position to compete dollar for dollar with Obama and Clinton. And to an extent it worked because he always polled higher in Iowa than he did anywhere else, and he edged out Clinton there.

I think Edwards has been shrewd in his political strategy all along, especially as an under dog of sorts, going back to the 2004 race also. And I think that is to his credit, it gives me more rather than less confidence that Edwards would find a strategy to win in November if he is our nominee.

My basic point was that it was silly for an Edwards supporter to claim Clinton needs to drop out of the race if she loses in a state that supposedly she should be strong in. I used Iowa as a means to underscore that, and agreed that it would have been foolish for Edwards to drop out after the Iowa results also. Look, it's not exactly a political secret that Edwards employed an Iowa centered strategy as his option A for winning the nomination. Now it is on to option B for him, which is what will happen for Clinton also if she loses in New Hampshire.

[catnhatnh]

32. I Pretty much agree with everything you say.

I do get sick though of hearing how Edwards lived there and Old shy and naive Barrack just kind of walked in by accident at the last minute and won the whole shebang. And neither is this a slap at Obama who is my number two pick. It's more that the partisanship that allow some DU posters to become a bit disingenious in support of their candidate and allowing thereby the entire upfront tone of our discussions to be debased. Incidentally, my predicted scenario is for Obama to win,Hilliary to place, and John to show well enough to build interest. My long term prediction-Hilliary sinking increasingly fast, while Obama slows,then stops,then slowly recedes as he spends more time in head to head comparisons to Edwards,Edwards I believe slowly increases support throughout the process with a few nice bumps later this month...and finally "Answer unclear, ask again later." Whoops-my predictor crashed....sorry.

[Double T]

4. I think there are far more sinister forces at work in these primaries right NOW!!

And I've got a really ugly feeling that the Dems are falling right into a well planned and orchestrated trap by the RW neocons.

[Joe the Revelator]

6. Sometimes things just aren't a conspiracy

You gotta deal with facts at some point. VOTERS like Obama better right now.

[Double T]

10. And ALL the BIG NAME RW neocon pundits ALWAYS agree unanimously..........

that a certain Democratic candidate would be/is great! Get REAL!!

[Joe the Revelator]

18. What kind of Tin Foil do you use for your Helmet?

[Double T]

28. No Tin Foil necessary on this one, it's in your face. If YOU can't see what's happening.........

then YOU will most likely become a part of it.

[Alamom]

21. More people agree with you than you might imagine. nm

[Joe the Revelator]

34. Of course Hillary supporters would agree with this paranoid stuff

It's what there girl has always leaned on when she can't win fairly.

[Colobo]

40. So Obama is beating Clinton just because Republicans want him?

If you believe that, you are in denial.

[Joe the Revelator]

5. I agree if Hillary can't compete in the North East, she can't compete anywhere

Get out of the race and let the real democrats have a go at it until the convetion.

[pnwmom]

16. In the midwest there'd probably be fewer people complaining about her

flat midwestern accent.

:shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Some History

Ted Kennedy lost Iowa and New Hampshire (that's really his back yard) to Jimmy Carter in 1980... He had already committed the "no-no" of challenging a sitting president from your own party...He lost a ton of primaries and caucuses before catching on in New York and California...But even then he had about half the delegates as Carter at the convention...He still wouldn't concede and aked to have all his and Carter's delegates released to vote their conscience... That failed... He never conceded...

Oh, when I was growing up in New York I didn't think of New Hampshire as a neighbor state...Heck, at least Canada shares a border with New York...

[itsrobert]

11. Didn't Ted Kennedy get a late start?

That's how I remembered it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. No-He Competed In The Iowa Caucus

~

[ButterflyBlood]

9. Yes. Quit. Let only decent candidates run.

n/t

[Stuckinthebush]

14. Not at all

I must preface this post by saying that I am not a Clinton supporter at this time - more of a Edwards/Obama supporter.

Anyway, I don't think it hurts her much at all. Results in Iowa and NH are overblown in my opinion. If we take a look down the line to February 5th, we will see the biggie - Super Tuesday. If Hillary comes in second in NH, she still has a butt load of cash and will be ready to hit the Feb 5th states hard. Her message is already out there and I think that Obama's momentum would slow down a great deal from NH to Super Tuesday.

Also, the media is dying for an Obama/Clinton blood bath to the end so they won't let it go.

Don't count Hillary out if she loses tomorrow - not by a long shot!

[goldcanyonaz]

17. How'd that Edwards bounce work out for you?

[itsrobert]

19. Edwards coming up strong. Latest poll has Hillary 24 and Edwards 23

If you factor the margin of error. Not there yet, but give it a day. ;)

[DemCam]

20. Wishful thinking

Hil's in...

[BringBigDogBack]

22. with you

[emilyg]

24. Silly.

She has support. She has money. Why would she give up.

[MrSlayer]

27. She has too much money still. She'll run through Super Tuesday.

Even if she loses in NH, she still has the cash to go on. She's depending more on the big states to rally her faltering campaign. If she doesn't win Super Tuesday in a convincing fashion, she's done.

[cmaff05]

30. Facts about candidates who win both Iowa and NH

Number of times a candidate has won both the Iowa Caucus AND the New Hampshire Primary: 9

GOP - 4 times:
2004 - GW Bush
1992 - GHW Bush
1984 - Reagan
1976 - Ford

Democratic - 5 times:
2004 - Kerry
2000 - Gore
1996 - Clinton
1980 - Carter
1976 - Carter



Number of times that person DIDN'T win their party's nomination: 0.

[MrSlayer]

51. Yep, doesn't mean she's dropping out though.

She's got the dough and the organization to continue on. Trust me, she's not going anywhere until it's clear she can't take the nom.

[mtnsnake]

29. If Edwards can't compete in SC, do you think maybe it's time for him to hang it up as well?

That's his own backyard, right?

[NCarolinawoman]

41. Also, Hillary is outpolling him in NC.

Can't get much more "your own backyard" than that.

[OHdem10]

31. Each candidate knows their own data and they will drop out

when the time is right.

The Editor Union Leader, NH---Do not count HRC out here in NH

All te first 2 primaries tells us who has momentum. No indication
of who will win in the long run.

[cmaff05]

35. You are wrong

As I posted above, the primaries tell us more than who has the momentum. There has not been one candidate in either party who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire and not won their party's nomination.

[no name no slogan]

33. No. Competition is good.

She will stay in until at least Super Tuesday.

[Muttocracy]

36. When did HRC become a New Yorker?

Just because she and Bill bought property here? She's lived longer in Illinois, Arkansas, or DC.

(from an upstate New Yorker who hates the fact that she ran for the senate here swearing it was not her stepping stone)

[sniffa]

38. nah. i want to see how nasty she can get.

:popcorn:

[Honeycombe8]

39. Well, NH has more Independents than Dems, so it's not really like NYC. nt

[pnwmom]

54. It's nothing like NYC. n/t

[Laurab]

42. Silly post - NH is not "in her backyard"

as much as I don't want HRC to win, I live in NY (albeit not the city), and I don't think anyone considers NH to be in our backyard.

And I too would like to see exactly how low she'll go (or how nasty she'll get) as the primaries go on. Perhaps then some of her supporters will see her in a different light.

I also believe if there were "sinister forces at work", as someone posted above about neocons, Hillary would be their choice, not Obama. In fact, I'm almost sure of it.

[Yuugal]

43. LOL, you want consensus on DU?

Here's my opinion. If Hillary wants to have a better chance she needs to speak to some working class people and find out what their problems are. When you are hungry and under/unemployed and can't put food on your family, a Pre-K mandate for your kids isn't going to help.

If she really wanted to help kids, she wouldn't be for giving their mommy's and daddy's jobs away to India, China, Mexico, etc. She wouldn't be for NAFTA, CAFTA, PFFFFFFFFTA, or any other corporate treason. She just doesn't get it. She doesn't even mention the little people and she wont get their votes until she does.

[elleng]

44. BACKYARD?

First, she's from Illinois, with a lengthy detour through Arkansas. NH is not in NY's backyard; Vermont is.

She's certainly NOT been in NYS for a very long time.

I think it would have no significance whatever.

[Sparkly]

46. When did they change the map? nt