ARG, Rasmussen, CNN all now have Obama ahead by 10%

[Perky]

If that holds through balloting on Tuesday, You are going to see a massive endorsement rush towards Obama. Particularly if he gets 60% percent of the 40% of independents who vote in the primary.

Edwards will not get out because he believes strongly in his message and may stay on the ballot everywhere. Hillary will not get out until after SC. But you will see a large and steady stream of party stalwarts starting with WIlder and the Wisconsin governor yesterday. Bradley today. Lee Hamilton soon, Bill Richardson Joe Chris Dodd, and John Kerry in the next three days. AL Gore will jump on board within a week.

There is no gloating. It is simply the reality of how these things play out. Truth of it is that paid staffers are going to try and get on the Obama team and those who are left, while die-hard and loyal just are not going to have the enthusiasm necessary. But the most important element is that fund-raising is going to dry up.

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Hillary's response to another ten point loss is critical to how she is going to be perceived for the rest of her political career. If she comes across as defiant or angry...she is going to become a very ugly caricature. If Bill starts taking on Obama directly its going to be very ugly for the party. I am not suggesting they should pull out. I am just saying that they need to be magnanimous in defeat and pack their bags for South Carolina quietly. They go negative and they are going to look petty and arrogant.

[Honeycombe8]

1. Gore probably won't endorse until it's a done deal. Burned by the Dean endorsement.

But, as my grandma used to say, Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Anything can happen.

I can say that, since I'm an Obama supporter.

[bluestateguy]

2. Hill may want to step up her ad buys in Nevada

and call in Bob Shrum to rescue the campaign :rofl:

[skipos]

The most interesting (and best) thing would be for Edwards to beat Hillary

He is a distant 3rd in the polls in all the relevant states, but ya never know. If he beats Hillary in NH, it would be a huge deal. If he doesn't, I don't see any way for him to get the nomination.

If Hillary wins NH, which seems unlikely, she is back in the race.
If Obama wins NH, we will definitely win SC and the momentum for him will be even stronger.

[skipos]

3. The most interesting (and best) thing would be for Edwards to beat Hillary

He is a distant 3rd in the polls in all the relevant states, but ya never know. If he beats Hillary in NH, it would be a huge deal. If he doesn't, I don't see any way for him to get the nomination.

If Hillary wins NH, which seems unlikely, she is back in the race.
If Obama wins NH, we will definitely win SC and the momentum for him will be even stronger.

[Joe the Revelator]

4. What makes you think that SC is Hillary's Little Big Horn?

Just curious. I always saw her going on to Super Tuesday. I'd love for SC to be her last stand.

[Perky]

5. a couple of things

I think AA support is going to desert her and that is 50% of the Dems in SC. I also think there is going to be a hurge AA turnout.

Next I think he support in the south is tenuous to begin with and with the Big MO probably even more so.


Obama could concievaly get 70% given these factors and Edwards weak polling there.

Hillary might do better to get out after SC....Becucasue a drubbing by a Black man in the south a week prior to Super Tuesday would almost invaraibly wind up very ugly on Super Tuesday. Here only recourse would be to go very negative and I don;t think that would play well with anyone.