Big News You Won't Hear on the News: Edwards +9 Nationally in a Week, Clinton -7, Obama +1

[jsamuel]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/6/21652/01473/297/431938

With all eyes on NH, national polls have not been getting any attention. Edwards is gaining, Clinton is falling, and Obama is flat.

Rasmussen Daily Tracking

1/6/08
Clinton 36% (-7)
Obama 25% (+1)
Edwards 23% (+9)

12/29/07
Clinton 43%
Obama 24%
Edwards 14%

Is Edwards Surging?

In a blizzard of New Hampshire polls, one national poll has been largely overlooked -- the Rasmussen national daily tracking poll. In that poll, there's a huge surprise: while Hillary Clinton has dropped seven points since December 29th (from 43 percent to 36 percent), Barack Obama has only gained a point (from 24 percent to 25.) So where has Hillary's support gone?

To John Edwards, who has surged nine points in a week from 14 percent to 23 percent. How can this be?

One possibility is that the saturation media coverage of the Clinton vs. Obama battle in Iowa made Edwards' second place finish a relative surprise. Even though the pundits argued that the state was do-or-die, merely defeating Hillary was novelty enough to give Edwards a bump.

...

If Edwards can top Clinton for second place on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if voters who leave the Clinton camp continue to move to Edwards.

The whole point of winning Iowa and New Hampshire and other states is to get a boost in national polls so that when super Tuesday comes around, you have a fighting chance. It seems that at this point, Edwards is poised to do just that. While he did not win Iowa, his second place finish over Clinton forced many to do a double take.

Edwards realizes that beating Clinton in Iowa also means beating her nationally. This is why I think Clinton is going after Edwards in New Hampshire like this:

"Senator Clinton’s speeches are about people she has actually helped and changes she has actually made, not stories she’s pulled from the newspaper and included in her stump," Mr. Carson wrote in an E-mail message.

Mr. Carson’s comment was in reference to an emotional town hall event Mr. Edwards held in Manchester early Sunday afternoon, featuring an appearance by the parents of Nataline Sarkisyan, a 17-year-old leukemia patient who died in December after her insurance company denied her a liver transplant.

John Edwards response:

Speaking at a news conference after the Manchester event, Mr. Edwards responded to Mr. Carson’s comment when a reporter read it to him.

"The Sarkisyans contacted me because they believe I’m the kind of president who will actually fight for their daughter," Mr. Edwards said. "People who have been through these difficult times against entrenched, powerful moneyed interests – they get it. They get it in a serious way. They’re not looking for somebody who’ll make deals."

Then after spending an hour on his campaign bus, en route to his next event in Keene, Mr. Edwards called another news conference – before his next event had even started.

"This campaign doesn’t seem to have a conscience," he said, adding that he had been thinking about the comment from the Clinton campaign. "The more I thought about it, the idea that somehow everything is about them, I mean, it’s an indication that they have no conscience about what’s at stake here. These families are who this is about. It’s not about them, nor is it about me. It’s about whether we’re going to actually stand up and fight for these people and how much we care about them."

New Hampshire isn't the only ones watching moments like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbhVFAAVJ98

[femmocrat]

1. Wow, thank you for the fantastic post!

Edwards did have a very moving rally on Sunday and it was carried on C-Span. In addition to Mr. Sarkisyn, the family of the little girl injured in the swimming pool, and the man with the cleft palate for 50 years were also there, and both spoke to the crowd. It was extremely touching. No wonder Edwards took umbrage at the Clinton camp's snide comment.

It is also very enlightening to see this national poll. CNN had a poll tonight that showed Edwards down to 16 in NH! With all the focus on IA and NH, the national polls are being totally overlooked.

[skipos]

12. That is because we don't pick our candidates nationally. Edwards needs to beat CLinton in NH

to break from his distant 3rd place showing in all the currently relevant states.

[jsamuel]

15. national polls are made up of those relevant states

[skipos]

16. Not really.

You may think all the states that have June primaries are as relevant as Iowa. I don't.
I wish they were though.

By the way, we would never WANT a national primary. Candidates with money and name rec. would be more favored than they already are.

[MadBadger]

2. Right or Not, You wont see those numbers because its Rasmussen

Generally the media ignores those numbers. If you see that in lets say an NBC poll or CNN, then I can guarantee it will get coverage.

[maximusveritas]

9. Agreed. This is just one tracking poll from a Republican pollster

The numbers make very little sense to me. He expects me to belive Obama got a huge post-Iowa bounce in NH, but absolutely nothing nationally? Sorry, not buying it.
Wait until we see it from someone else.

[Honeycombe8]

3. I just don't think the nationals matter. It's a numbers game, decided by just a few states.nt

[K Gardner]

4. It's very heartening to see that people are starting to pay attention..

there is no way people in DC or in the MSM Studios, or even in IA or NH.. can understand how VERY LITTLE local coverage is going on in us "flyover" states :-)

[Andy823]

5. Yep

Iowa, and NH are two states, two states do not put anyone in place as the "nominee"! We have a long way to go yet, and things are going to get very interesting! Edwards is lookin good, and people will take notice, listen to him, and realize as we all do that he is the one who will give us the change we need in this country!

Thanks for the post!:woohoo:

[silverojo]

6. K&R

Sounds like someone's a wee bit jealous that people with real problems with corporate interests didn't fall for her bullshit, and chose John Edwards instead.

:evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin:

In seriousness, HRC is consistently showing her colors lately, between her reaction to Obama's discussion of his mother's death during the debates, and now this. I would expect this sort of thing from the GOP side, but not from a Dem. Her color, clearly, is black--most of it centered within her heart.

Since her conscience is beyond repair, maybe she'll still have a chance for the nomination, if she surfs on over to eBay, and buys a personality.

[benny05]

7. K & R

No one should ever defy the actions of families who are hurting for universal health care and to advocate for a candidate who will fight for all of us

:kick:

[deminks]

8. As John said during the debate, the presidential race is personal to him

If it is academic like Obama, or political like Hillary, they are likely to turn and run from the fight. If it is personal, as he says it is to him, he is more likely to stand and fight.

This child who died is personal, not a story out of a newspaper. How dare anyone characterize her in any other way. How mean spirited. But you see the fight for them is political and not personal.

[frogcycle]

11. bingo

that was clearly the comment of some soulless hack (I doubt HRC wrote it) who will probably go back to writing dogfood jingles when the campaign is over. But they hired the person, and released the thing, so they own the backlash. That Penn character is going to lose this thing for Clinton. He is REALLY a hack. It is unfortunate that crap becomes all we have to evaluate people, but there it is. Edwards, if he is only pretending to have a soul, is at least good at pretending. HRC can't pull it off, and Obama doesn't seem to try.

[bonito]

10. Edwards has my support

It's just the way to go!

[fujiyama]

13. It really is frustrating how Edwards has been ignored by the media

however, aside from the fact that this poll isn't from a major media outlet (like NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, etc) which helps get coverage, the outcome of the later primaries and caucuses will largely be determined by the results of NH and SC. It's all about momentum and I like and support Edwards, but unless he wins a primary soon I don't see him pulling this off.

[annie1]

14. ouch.

[Triana]

17. Don't tell ME he's not viable!

No matter whether he wins NH or comes in second or NOT.

As we can see, he most definitely IS (thus far) still VERY MUCH in the running.

[Imagevision]

18. Crrent New Hampshire Poll as Barack at 33% - Hllary @ 26% - Edwards @ 25% which makes

it seem that whenever Hillary opens her mouth her numbers continue to go down and Obama's increase, it flat out seems Hillary has a people issue. I use to like her somewhat but in an election she's umm...
kinda of nasty. I think she would be elected if it came down to who is the crudest candidate.

[MadBadger]

19. Which poll is this?

[FogerRox]

32. The OP looks to be a national poll, not a NH poll

[jsamuel]

20. link?

[ClericJohnPreston]

21. Obama is all image

I'm an Edwards man and fan. He is real and stands up to the monied interests. He has defined the clearest issues of this campaign.

From a personal injury Trial lawyer background, I can tell you it is impossible to be friendly in a war with insurance carriers. These leviathns only live to profit from sickness and premiums, with a strategy of deny, protract and mitigate.

I'm sickened by Obama's insurance compnay links, right down to his N.H. campaign manager. Aren't people at all disturbed by his naivete, or worse, disingenuous responses regarding lobbyists?

I, for one, see it all. No smoke and mirrors for me.

The MSM ignorance is deliberate as they are part of the Corporate machine. We have to show them, as we are showing Hillary, there is no room left for lap dog Democrats!

WE WANT A FIGHTER!

[MadBadger]

22. Do you think a candidate should accept money from state lobbyists?

[bagimin]

34. And what an appealing image he is.

I would like a candidate who will win for a change.
Obama is running to win...he's not running as the liberal that he is.

[progressoid]

23. Oh sure, I saw this on the national news today.

NOT!

[Catchawave]

24. We're going in the right direction!

Thanks! :kick:

[lisainmilo]

25. Nice!

M$M still doing very little reporting on JRE.....still all about Clinton and Obama, thank you for this post.

[Tom Joad]

26. I would love to see Hillary go at least back to third place in NH, if not 4th

if not 9th place.
Her backing of the kyl-lieberman war bill on Iran stinks.

[DemCam]

28. There you go again...

[jgraz]

27. Great post. Thanks.

[tom_paine]

29. K & R

[onehandle]

30. Kick! nt

[BrklynLiberal]

31. You mean that someone in the media actually mentioned John Edwards????

:wow:

[AshevilleGuy]

33. Edwards must stay afloat until Feb 5th!

It won't be easy with the media pushing Obama with every move they make. We know now their game, but these numbers give me a little hope.

Thanks!