Clinton adviser thinks South Carolina is Obama's ....

[Alhena]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7759.html

The (Clinton) adviser added that the campaign has come to accept another reality of the early process, which is that African-American voters are convinced that Obama is viable and shifting rapidly in his direction.

“We’re going to lose South Carolina,” he said.

[TwilightZone]

1. It was already a toss-up in the polls a couple weeks ago, so it wouldn't be surprising.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html

[book_worm]

2. I think that is very true if NH also falls to Obama

why? as many pundits have said AA have been waiting to see if white America will vote for a black man, and with Obama wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire it will reassure them. I think you'll see SC blacks who will make up half the total vote very strongly for Obama and he will also win a fair portion of the white vote too. I think Obama will take SC by a large margin.

[K Gardner]

3. Clinton Campaign Loses Front Runner Mantle in SC... link to SC paper..

article link was posted in another thread. Reposted here for relevance.

http://www.scnow.com/midatlantic/scp/news.apx.-content-articles-BTW-2008-01-06-0001.html

By Jim Davenport
FLORENCE, S.C. (AP) --

The sense of inevitability that once surrounded Hillary Rodham Clinton's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination has lessened in this early voting state since challenger Barack Obama swept to a convincing win earlier this month in Iowa's caucus.

The argument that the New York senator is the only candidate that can win against Republicans doesn't carry as much weight as it did before Iowa, said state Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter, D-Orangeburg and a superdelegate to the Democratic Party.
<snip>

"The Obama campaign has outrun and outsmarted the Clinton campaign," said Waring Howe, a Charleston lawyer and member of the state party's executive committee. He said Obama's campaign has used technology to keep voters engaged and create momentum while the Clinton campaign has been more steeped in traditional efforts, including lining up endorsements from black ministers and legislators.

"The Clintons have got themselves to blame when they look in the mirror," said Howe, also a superdelegate to his party's convention. Howe says he has narrowed his choices to two, but wouldn't say which two.

[BenDavid]

6. Well don't play the violin and the death march just yet....just

remember after sc there are three more and oh lets say obama does take sc and nh....all obama has and counting iowa is 83 delegates. Now oh for the sake of busting someones bubble. lets say hrc take nevada and beats obama bad in michigan and then in florida hrc beats obama bad....Now if the delegates are counted in those three days and including those from iowa hrc has 353 delegates heading into super tuesday. Now, oh for the sake of busting someones bubble guess who has the mo going into 2/5/08? uh huh HRC....In those 19 states I truly see obama only winning illinois....With HRC blasting pass obama in the big states like michigan and florida she will be perceived as the one to beat, again and oh how folks will rally around her in those states and obama will be left winding his butt and stractching his watch. This could very well be the scenario, and do not discount it......

Ben David

[K Gardner]

8. Hillary Clinton will not win Tennessee. I at least need to put that little kink in your scenario :-

We'll see how Feb 5th goes.. it will be interesting and a LONG NIGHT !!

[nevergiveup]

10. How could Clinton lose Michigan?

Isn't she the only remaining candidate on the ballot?

[Colobo]

4. I love it.

[K Gardner]

9. I figured you would ! The South may just turn blue in 2008.. :-)

[BeyondGeography]

5. “Rhetoric vs. Results, Talk vs. Action,” is the new formula.

Meet the new confusing narrative, same as the old confusing narrative.

They're fucked.

[peoli]

7. This is the first thing the Clinton campaign has gotten right