Bookmark this NH prediction: Obama 45% HRC 28%

[Perky]

Obama 45%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 6%
Kucinich 2%
He will do this based largely on Independent voters who decide to vote for him over McCain and a big surge in young democrats.

That likely means Huckabee vs Romney in South Carolina by the way.

[BlueManDude]

1. If that's the case he would knock out Hillary and St John McCain in one night

I wouldn't mind.

[SheilaT]

2. Let me see,

there are 3,515 delegates to the Democratic national convention. If my research is correct, Iowa sends 16 delegates, New Hampshire sends 30. I should hate to think that those two tiny states would actually determine who the nominee will be. I sincerely hope this remains a three way race at least through Super Tuesday (Feb 5), if not longer.

[SaveElmer]

3. Obama 40, Hillary 33, Edwards 20...nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Sounds more likely

No way Obama gets 45%

[KennedyGuy]

4. so will Obama drop out if he doesn't win by this margin?

[Donnachaidh]

5. no link = bullshit prediction.

But can we expect any less from this sort of posting?

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. How can a prediction be bullshit?

It is what it is.

It'll be laughable when it doesn't come true, but that's another matter. :-)

[Perky]

8. here is a link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3914559

Note this was my Iowa prediction three days before the IA caucuses.

[suston96]

9. Yah but - how many delegates are you predicting for each of the candidates....

After all, it's all about delegates, no?

Iowa: Obama 16, Clinton 15, Edwards 14.

New Hampshire?

[Perky]

10. I could care less about delegate counts at this early stage

It translates into likely unstoppable momentum

[suston96]

12. I was talking about how NH percentages translate into delegates.

I know NH is not a winner take all. But does it have a weird delegate apportionment like Iowa.

It's a fair question as you and others toss out "predictions".

[Perky]

15. I thing it is straight percentage

[suston96]

18. I believe you are correct - straight percentages....

But here is a good bookmark/favorite to use as time and primaries go on. Caution: many states, most states have very old polling so these totals are definitely not set in stone.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/state-polls.html

[GalleryGod]

17. Not much anymore...especially those "fickle" Super Delegates.

Apparently...Bradley's endorsement will be followed by Kerry after N.H. and "In-Box" at Obama National H.Q.'s is full...our (D) elected politicians can "pivot on a dime" .
And anticipating the "yeah a bunch of losers endorse Obama" that will rain down upon me...I do suggest that Experience does count...


Sorry...just trying to inject a little historical humor this a.m.

[Dawgs]

26. How'd those early delegates work out for Dean in 2004?

[GalleryGod]

11. Perky...from your post to the Election Gods calculator!

[Perky]

13. Hey I nailed it in Iowa. Hopefully I have a knack for this and they are listening

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3914559

[GalleryGod]

14. I'll lend you my hammer through Mega Tuesday...

Keep on banging it!

[loveangelc]

16. I hope you're right. It may be closer but signs point to him beating her by at least 7 points.

[oasis]

19. No need to bookmark. Similar threads are popping up every 15 minutes.(eom)

[Perky]

20. I have not seen any.

[killbotfactory]

21. It's starting to look like you nailed it, again

:thumbsup:

[Perky]

22. Time will tell

[rocktivity]

23. After what happened in Iowa, I may never read a poll-related story again!

I only got to watch the coverage in the beginning, when the frontrunners had 32 points each. I thought, "This is EXACTLY what I expected--I've said since November that nobody is going to run away with this." I tuned in three hours later expecting to see something along the lines of Hillary 36, Obama 33, Edwards 30. But there's this big 38 on the screen, OBAMA'S pic is next to it, he's up EIGHT points, Hillary and Edwards were neck and neck, and then Edwards squeaked ahead! It was genuinely shocking, but I felt quite proud, too, that the power of the people had overcome all of the punditry and posturing in the corporate media.

:patriot:
rocknation

[suston96]

24. Experience counts.....

I like that reminder about the 1960 campaign where the "experience counts" team of Nixon and Lodge lost. And the Kennedy/Johnson glitz and glitter team won.

And fewer than 2 months after taking office the young, inexperienced Kennedy was taken in by bad CIA intelligence which resulted in the disastrous Bay of Pigs fiasco.

Yeah, history is a bitch, eh?

[abburdlen]

25. My wild guess

Obama: 42
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 21
Richardson: 5

On the republican side,
McCain: 31
Romney: 28
Huckabee: 14

And Ron Paul edging out Giuliani for fourth both with about 8