What Is John Edwards and Hillary Clinton's End Game

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Let me lay a factual foundation... Obama will come in first tomorrow...Clinton will come in second...Edwards will come in third...Obama will most likely win the NV caucus and the South Carolina primary...

Barack Obama is a juggernaut...He's like the NASDAQ in the late nineties or tulip mania...His stock keeps getting bid up and bid up... Is there a ceiling? Is there a floor? Is there a crash waiting? I don't know...What I do know is he in unstoppable now...It's Newton's First Law, "An object at rest tends to stay at rest and an object in motion tends to stay in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force."


Where do they go from here?

[onehandle]

1. Bill Clinton lost plenty in 1992 before winning it all.

Way too early to play this game.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. He Lost IA To The Favorite Son (Harkin) And NH To The Boy Next Store (Tsongas)

I'd like to see Edwards or Clinton turn things around but I don't see a plausible scenario where that can occur...

[peacebird]

7. problem is, Bill oozes charm and charisma, plus smarts. Hillary has the smarts but not the charisma.

I think "inevitability" and the Clinton "machine" were her best bets.... She still has the machine, so who knows....

[maddiejoan]

2. Obama's candidacy is like the dot.com boom

watch it go bust before super tuesday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Right Now It's Like The Nasdaq ( Dot Com Rise) Or Tulip Mania

But an object in motion stays in motion...

I have been watching elections since I was a kid ...I have never seen anything like this...

[Dawgs]

15. Weren't you guys saying that before Iowa?

Isn't that getting old? Aren't you embarrassed to come back and here and repeat the same things after Iowa?

[maddiejoan]

16. No

I'm not.

[cali]

3. I tend to agree with your take on this but

I do kinda see where Clinton goes. She goes straight to Feb 5tha and makes her case while hoping he stumbles. Edwards? Don't have a clue.

[peacebird]

5. I am not so sure Clinton will come in second.. I think Edwards will again squeak past her

I think that Edwards stands a good chance in South Carolina as well - better than Hillary.

Edwards is in it for the long haul, I think he will remain.

I also can't see Hillary quitting, though I wish she would.

[cali]

17. Edwards stands exactly no chance in a state where 50%

of the dem primary voters are AA. Why on earth would you think that those voters would go for Edwards? He has virtually NO AA support in SC. His chances there are even worse than in NH.

[SteppingRazor]

6. In the short run, Hillary and Edwards' play is to destroy the other.

Both of them want a two-man race against Obama. I'm sure Clinton would rather have a two-man race against Edwards, but she has to recognize that as an impossibility. So, it comes down to getting Edwards out and convincing his would-be supporters to either vote for her or stay home.

Obviously from the last few days (hell, it was obvious just from watching him on Morning Joe and American Morning this morning), Edwards wants a two-way race against Obama as well. I'm not really sure why, though -- I can see Clinton wanting the experience vs. change race, despite the fact that she has the weaker hand there, because it's better than Edwards sapping votes. But Edwards running the change v. change race against Obama is almost certainly a losing play. I think what it comes down to is, he knows it has to narrow to two people eventually and Hillary is currently the most vulnerable, so he's just opportunistically going all-out against her.

But, basically, both Hillary and Edwards are hoping for the same thing -- that the other one drops out.

[Deep13]

9. No, HRC wants a 3-person race...

...to split the anti-Clinton vote.

[Deep13]

12. ***wrong fucking place***

[veniceboy]

11. You are right on-

They are hoping to knock the other out, narrow it down, and hope Obama trips. SuperTuesday is obviously the true end game for both. They will both hang around until then. If Obama wins, Hillary drops out and supports him (she will not support Edwards). She may even drop out sooner if she continues to disappoint. South carolina isn't her state. And Obama represents a dream to a lot of people- if she attacks too hard people will resent her for it. Disagree that Obama is dot.com stock. He is simply the most attractive candidate.

[ccpup]

10. where do they go from here?

Obama has a great January and Hillary has a great February. Obama stumbles in his -- or his campaign's -- hubris and excited running of premature Victory Laps and Hillary takes advantage, showing herself to be calm, cool and collected while consolidating support and not taking anything for granted.

At the end of all this Early Primary craziness, we head into the Spring not really knowing who will be the Nominee and the later Primary States suddenly become more important.

[KennedyGuy]

13. I think Hillay and Obama willgo till Feb 5

Edwards won't drop out..but I wish he would..
I don't see him having the money to go much further..
the back up Obama strategy doesn't seem to be helping him..

[abburdlen]

14. Edwards needs it to be a two-way race

and then makes it a fight of underdog(no media coverage, non-Washington, less money) against a decent but overly hyped media-creation.
It's a big gamble but I don't see any other chance for him.

For Clinton at this point she just needs some good news or at least some not bad news. She ought to start leaking that Obama is likely to win NH by 30 points and then when he wins by only 10 or so point can get the narrative going that Obama is losing his glow. Fortunately for Edwards, I think it's in her best interest to keep it a 3-way race as well, since more of his supporter seem likely to go to Obama rather than her if he were out of the race.

[NewHampster]

18. Here you go

There is a few things I can guarantee will be in place on February
4, the day before Super Tuesday.

(1) Hillary will have received more total votes than any of the other
Democratics candidates

(2) Hillary will have more total delegates than any of the other candidates

(3) Hillary will have the polling lead in major states on the following day

(4) Hillary will have an aggressive national campaign, demonstrating
the differences between her strengths and Obama's weaknesses, through
advertisements in battleground states across the country.

(5) Obama will still be drawing big crowds, winning the hearts and
minds of people by the thousands, but that will mean little on an
election day when many millions of Democrats vote.


Delegates as of today, with super delegates.

Hillary 169
BaRock 66
Edwards 47

per http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

[NewHampster]

19. DSB another State by State breakdown of what is to come

I disagree with the NH part because some polls still show a tie and the kiddies may not even show up if they think it's a landslide for BaRockStar.

1. New Hampshire

There is too little time for Hillary to win New Hampshire. Obama
will win the state and Hillary will take a little consolation by
moving up to 2nd. If Hillary is able to keep it close and win a
plurality of votes by Democrats, that will be further consolation for
her. Edwards will come in third and Richardson fourth, and all four
campaigns will continue on.

2. Michigan

Hillary will win Michigan big but will get little benefit in the
press for having done so

3. Nevada

Nevada will be tough. Major state unions will likely endorse Obama
and he will come on very strong, overcoming most of the gap with
Hillary. Edwards will compete for the labor vote and Richardson will
compete for the anti-war and Latino vote. Hillary will eke out a
narrow victory, which will be very important for her. Obama second,
Edwards third. Richardson may drop out.

4. South Carolina

Obama will will the strong majority of the Black vote, while Edwards,
Clinton, and Obama split the white vote. Obama will win comfortably.
Clinton second, Edwards third.

5. Florida

With all candidates on the ballot, and with the Republican primary
very important there, the press *will* pay attention. Hillary's
strength among Jews, Latinos, and senior citizens will carry her over
the top. Obama second, Edwards third.

At this point in time, Obama brags that he has won the three most
heavily contested early states, while pulling in large numbers of
young voters and winning over independents. Hillary counters that
she has won three of the last four states, and has won the two
largest and most important (for the general election) states to date,
as well as a smaller battleground state in a key region. At this
point in the campaign, Hillary has received way more votes than any
of the other candidates, and also has more delegates (even if
Michigan and Florida delegates are never seated, due to her lead
among super delegates). It's all set for a real horse race on Feb.
5. (Edwards stays in the race by is increasingly irrelevant.)

6. Feb. 5 - Super Tuesday

Obama makes up a lot of ground in California, but Hillary pulls out a
win there due to her strong support among Latinos, Asian-Americans,
Jews, and gays. Hillary also has big victories in New York, New
Jersey, and Arkansas. Obama wins big in Illinois. The two split
most of the remaining states, with Edwards perhaps winning narrowly
in 1-2 small states such as Oklahoma. Hillary comes out of the day
with a substantial national lead in delegates.

7. Remainder of the race

Clinton and Obama split the remaining states, with Clinton doing
better than Obama. The super delegates also break for Clinton.
Clinton goes to the convention with a majority of delegates, and the
seating of delegations from Michigan and Florida increases her lead.
Obama's excellent showing has made him a very possible choice for a
VP nod.