Ras Tracking POLL: Hillary 33 (-3), Obama 29 (+4), Edwards 20 (-3)

[jefferson_dem]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Hillary Clinton’s national polling lead has collapsed. Before the Iowa caucuses, Clinton held a seventeen-point lead over Barack Obama. Today, that lead is down to four percentage points in a survey with a four-point margin of sampling error.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Clinton 33%, Barack Obama 29% and John Edwards 20%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[PATRICK]

1. Is the only reason for

that collapse really Obama's performance or is it the puncturing of shallow support? With these polls the polled themselves probably aren't clear. It would be less mindless if the rest of the states actually got a say in this before the media wraps it all up.

[BringBigDogBack]

6. That's what I'd like to know

[redqueen]

2. "Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points"

How on earth is a change that's LESS than the MOE interpreted as a "collapse"?

Frickin frick.

[jefferson_dem]

3. From a seventeen point lead to a four point lead in a week - -

You would not call that a collapse?

[balantz]

4. I think the poster may be referring to Clinton's number collapse.

[jefferson_dem]

5. Perhaps. But the "collapse" is used in reference to her lead.

There's really no disputing that, I don't think.

[redqueen]

7. Yup, oopsie... I went by the change shown in the text.

I wonder what the reason is... perhaps many of the respondents last week were supporting her simply due to the 'unstoppable' meme that was circulating for so long.

:shrug:

[cloudythescribbler]

8. As an Obama supporter, I'd wait to see what ALL the polls say

There are polls in NH that still show HRC in the lead, but at least several polls in NH that show Obama 7-12 points ahead, and still other polls that show them about tied, within one or two points of each other. As with IQ & psych tests, where you need to look at a whole battery of tests not just one, you have to look at ALL the polls to see just what the trend really is. This ONE poll suggests a HUGE collapse for HRC, but then again, as I've suggested, these things are tricky.

I have repeatedly been complaining that the HUGE front-loading of the primaries on TT (Tsunami Tuesday) could not but have been intended to act as a firewall for the presumptive nominee going into the contest (HRC) as opposed to any successful insurgent candidacy (Obama). Of course, maybe Obama can pull it off anyway (he'll need us supporters to really give during the period b/t NH and Feb 5'ths TT) but the Democratic Party COULD NOT BUT HAVE REALIZED that they were setting up an almost insurmountable barrier to any new candidate like Obama to win.

Personally, I think HRC would be MUCH less attractive in Nov 08 to independents and others, who fairly or unfairly won't vote for her. If HRC gets the nomination I'LL VOTE for her, but I'm worried that there are a lot of others who won't.

The fact that Obama is doing SO MUCH BETTER in those states where the national electioneering has been the greatest by ALL candidates suggests that he holds up better than the others under scrutiny.

He also seems definitely more knowledgeable and thoughtful than the others as far as presidency goes...