How well does Edwards need to do tomorrow?

[jgraz]

Poll question: How well does Edwards need to do tomorrow?

He's surging in the national polls and he's got a post-Iowa, post-Debate bump in NH. Tomorrow is going to be Obama's night, but how well does Edwards have to do to realistically keep this a three-person race?

[underpants]

1. It's really all about Feb. 5th

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3978396&mesg_id=3978396

That is when we will know who the nominees are going to be

[jgraz]

2. Yes, but...

Tomorrow and the other lead-up primaries are what will fuel the "big mo" for Feb 5. If Edwards craps out tomorrow, I think he may have trouble regrouping for Feb 5 -- mostly because the MSM will completely write him off.

[K Gardner]

11. But his supporters won't write him off. His momentum will pick up, regardless,

as Hillary's slides. He's no threat to Obama right now.. leave him be :-)

[jgraz]

17. I certainly won't write him off, but I really want to see him beat Hillary tomorrow

[question everything]

3. Does not really matter. He needs to stay around

at least until Feb. 6th.

I wish that Dodd and Biden did the same.

Voters of the most populous states have to have a choice of the full roster. It is inconceivable that the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire, that have absolutely nothing in common with average American, determine our choices.

[jgraz]

6. But don't you think Dodd and Biden would draw the most from Edwards?

They were my third and fourth choices behind Edwards and Kucinich. These primaries are going to be won by 1 or 2 percent. I like them both -- especially Dodd -- but I was relieved to see them bow out.

[question everything]

14. I don't think so

They clearly were at the bottom of the list and they really represent an entirely different kind of candidate. Their strength was, is, in foreign policy, while Edwards' is more domestic.

[Kucinich4America]

4. I'd like to see Edwards win and Obama come in second

....just to keep an actual race going between those two, at least.

Of course I'd really rather see a huge Kucinich upset. That would make the race even more interesting. :)

[jgraz]

8. Heh, you're in my fantasy world

Not gonna happen, but it sure would be sweet. ;)

[rox63]

5. I think he has to come in 2nd

Or a virtually-tied 3rd, like HRC did in Iowa. A distant 3rd would be really bad news for his campaign.

[eileen_d]

9. I agree with this

and I think he will perform at least this well. I voted for liking toast though. :evilgrin:

[Uncle Sinister]

7. 3rd won't kill us, John's support is amazingly inddependant of the punditry,who

will try and convince us it's "over" for the Edwards campaigm if he doesn't win. Fiddlesticks

[Seabiscuit]

25. Absolutely! I expect to see him through all the way to the convention.

:dem: :dem: :dem:

[Wednesdays]

10. I think if he beats either Obama or Clinton, he's in good shape

If he beats both, the nomination is his to lose.

[THUNDER HANDS]

12. well, he has to beat Hillary, that should be his goal

realistically though, Edwards supporters should be satisfied with a close third, anywhere from 4 to 6 points behind Hillary.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. How's he doing financially?

Isn't here the end of his rope? If so, I'd think he'd have to win.

[jgraz]

19. He's doing fine. He's netting a lot of individual, low-dollar donors

That's a good formula for keeping a campaign alive regardless of early results.

[cali]

15. He needs to beat HIllary

to get that critical buzz going. And I actually see that as a sttrong possibility. If he doesn't beat her or come in third with 2 points or so, he really is done.

[Occam Bandage]

16. A win might make him part of the race again, but as it stands he's pretty irrelevant.

[skipos]

18. He is a distant 3rd in all the polls of relevant states

A 3rd place showing in NH won't help. He has got to beat Hillary.
Now, if Obama thumps Hillary bad enough she may drop out sooner than later.

[jgraz]

20. I'll bet you a cookie that Hillary won't drop out no matter what

And Edwards is surging in national numbers (+9 in a poll posted today). He's within the MOE on Hillary and a good showing tomorrow will only help.

[skipos]

24. You think she will go to the convention?

I think she will probably go until super tuesday, but it wouldn't blow my mind if she didn't.

[jgraz]

27. Unless she gets crushed on Feb 5, she'll go

The Clintons are working the super delegates like nobody's bidness.

[balantz]

21. Edwards won't bounce around with rise and fall surges,

he will keep steadily rising in the national polls, because even with the media blackout more and more people are seeing through that facade. The kind of drastic change he will bring about in our government is the kind of real change most Americans want. Corporate control must be dismantled, Americans know this. The media has him for the most part on silence, but as voters continue to see Edwards speak forcefully and passionately as he does in the debates about saving the middle-class, about ridding the world of nuclear weapons, the more his numbers will rise in the polls nationally.

[Labors of Hercules]

22. As long as all 3 can remain within 10 points of each other....

this will remain a 3 person race.

For Edwards to gain enough to maintain that, he needs to thump Hillary a bit (but not too hard) in NH and come in closer behind Obama.

[jgraz]

23. I'll buy that.

Obama may spread that margin out tomorrow, though.

[Alexander]

26. If he beats Hillary he's back in the game. Apart from that, it's over.

[surfermaw]

28. I voted a close vote

But that not really true, it is a long time until the dogs come home.

[Tom Rinaldo]

29. I voted has to beat Hillary but...

...my real answer wasn't up there. He is toast if he doesn't finish a very close third at the very least, and it will be very hard, though not impossible, for him if he doesn't come in second. If Both Obama and Clinton open up substantial daylight between them and Edwards I really don't see what he can do from here. He isn't strong in Nevada or South Carolina either - he can't afford to bleed momentum now.