NH Primary Day: hnmnf Prediction - Obama 45%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 18%,

[MadBadger]

I think this numbers are a little soft on Obama because of the oustanding turnout I expect. The youth vote will show up like they did in Iowa and heavily lean towards Obama. Edwards' numbers will be a slight blow to his campaign who really should be a lot closer. In the end, there is an Obama surge going on nationwide following Iowa. he will win this thing pretty easily and move to Nevada where I havent seen a poll in over a month. Though whatever happens in NV will not matter in SC, where he will win with by an oustanding margin.

[still_one]

1. Edwards will come in second /nt

[JI7]

4. 2nd in New Hampshire ?

[emilyg]

5. Probably not.

[lvx35]

2. He will win in SC, but what then?

Do you sincerely think he has it locked up after that point, or could there be a surprise?

[MadBadger]

3. I dont think he has locked it up

I think Hillary is still in it. The thing is now though, her big national lead is gone. Which means that her big lead in these states that havent been polled in a month are probably gone too. If Obama keeps winning, he probably moves ahead in a lot of these states. However, just like Clinton's one slip up started to make this a race again, Obama can slip us as well. So nobody really knows.

[Chasing Dreams]

6. So why did McCain Attack Obama today?

Because the independent crossover to Obama is going to push him close to, or perhaps over, the 50% mark. And McCain desperately needs those voters.

My prediction: At least 75% of independents vote in the Democratic Primary, giving an unexpected victory to...Mitt Romney!

[BringBigDogBack]

7. That would be fantastic

on two fronts...

[featherman]

8. Dangerous at this point to raise expectations too high

The MSM wants a horse race. A couple of commentators have mentioned how NH voters like to defy conventional wisdom. Well the CW has gotten almost hysterical through the MSM about a "big win" for Obama today. There might be some resistance in NH to being told how they are going to vote.

A second point I've been hearing is that HRC's "emotional moment" may benefit her to an as yet unknown degree with many voters by showing the human side to a candidate who has been often perceived as brittle, cold, calculating, etc.

Bill Clinton was dubbed the Comeback Kid by losing in NH by "only" 8%. I'd rather not see HRC become Comeback Kid #2 by doing the same. Any win by Obama by 5-8 points to keep the momentum going would be just fine with me, especially with SC coming up next.

[MadBadger]

9. SC isnt next, its Nevada. SC isnt until the 26th.

[featherman]

10. Thanks for that but it wasn't my point

NV caucuses will be an unknown outcome until the Culinary Workers decide who they are backing. The point I was making is that Obama is virtually unassailable in his SC lead. If the CWU backs HRC after today's results, I would be surprised but it is possible and could give her a caucus win between NH and SC

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Your Order Is Spot On

Some polls show Hillary closing...Some polls show Obama gaining...

But all the polls show Edwards a distant third...

And I hope folks don't say New Hampshire is New York's backyard...New Hampshire is as similar to New York culturally and demographically as Kosovo is to Serbia...

[Clintonista2]

12. kick