Indications are that Hillary may be leading in the exit polls

[Herman Munster]

Check out the top story on the page. It's most likely a reference to campaign insiders in shock over the exit polls showing hillary winning and spinning it that they are bullshit like the kerry exit polls.

http://thepage.time.com/

[origin1286]

1. It'll be a mat...

with conclusions on it...that you can jump to

It looks to me like it's saying exactly what the caption says: don't overreact to early exit poll data. Even if Obama is away ahead or Hillary is leading, we saw in 2004 that they're irrelevant.

[Birthmark]

3. "we saw in 2004 that they're irrelevant."

In America, anyway. The exit polls work fine everywhere else on Earth. America is, apparently, a statistical anomaly.

[DB1]

4. This is an open primary, way different than a general election.

Besides the exit polls in 2004 had it right, the machines and obstruction changed the official count, especially in Ohio.

[origin1286]

5. Its clear to an unbiased observer

That the headline means campaigns aren't putting too much stock into exit polls.

And besides...

Kerry went on to win the nomination. So your theory that "Remember President Kerry?" applies in the way you seem to think it does doesn't hold that much water.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. He Was Referring To Exit Polls Showing Kerry Beating Bush*

~

[tritsofme]

2. Exit polls are crap, can someone page TIA to run the odds?

I think there's something like a .0000343% chance of this happening...

However this would be an amazing coup for Hillary if true.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I'm Confused

Exit polls need to be weighted...

Raw (unweighted) exit polls showed Dukakis beating Bush Pere in 88...

[sandnsea]

6. Yes more women vote in the day time, duh n/t

[jackson_dem]

7. The exit polls were right five days ago...

[origin1286]

9. No they weren't

I am almost positive CNN had the exit polls having Edwards in the lead for quite awhile.

[jackson_dem]

20. Edwards led the actual balloting during the first third of tabulation

Presumably this is because Edwards did best in small towns and Obama's cities needed more time to report their results. The entrance polls were right about Obama winning.

[musicblind]

8. why?

I don't understand, and I think it may be because I am not informed on the topic. Why are exit polls so unreliable? I know we have had problems but in theory it seems like... if you ask people as they leave the poll who they voted for then you would get a pretty close result to the final outcome? Are they wording the questions wrong? How does exit polling work exactly?

Thanks, and sorry for seeming dumb.

[ClericJohnPreston]

11. I'm for Edwards to the end

But, anything that will end this inevitability crap once and for all is healthy!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. A Partial Answer

They don't exit poll everybody.... I think in a national election they exit poll about 20,000 people and make inferences from that...

And what threw everybody off in 04 was that partial exit results were leaked...

[OhioChick]

10. The Exit Polls

Were in Kerry's favor here in 2004, as well.

[K Gardner]

12. Wow.. jump much? Here's the only thing I saw about Hillary...

Dem voters saying Obama can unite the country, is honest and trustworthy, Clinton is the most qualified to be commander in chief, ran the most unfair campaign. GOP voters saying McCain most qualified as commander in chief, Romney ran the most unfair campaign. Both parties agree the Iraq war, economy are the biggest issues.

[JackORoses]

15. where do you get your OP from the article linked?

in fact, there's actually some bad news in it for Hillary

"Dem voters saying Obama can unite the country, is honest and trustworthy,
Clinton is the most qualified to be commander in chief, ran the most unfair campaign.
...
Democrats want a total overhaul in Washington, but don’t want dirty politics."

That would seem to show that People identify Hillary with Dirty Politics, something that they apparently don't care for too much.

[Rock_Garden]

17. Yeah!

[GalleryGod]

18. Herman! Grab some decaf, Buddy!

[Occam Bandage]

19. That would indeed be a shock.