Exit poll numbers (from mydd)

[robbedvoter]

http://mydd.com/story/2008/1/8/19224/30459
Obama 41
Clinton 37
Edwards 15

McCain 36
Romney 30
Huckabee 13
Paul 11
Giuliani 8.5

[FrenchieCat]

1. That sounds about right.....

before the media started growing expectations for Obama!

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. I agree. But those expectations did help fuel excitement for Obama also.

Kind of a double edged sword. Anyway, if those numbers end up being real, nothing is inevitable anymore; certainly not Clinton, and not Obama either. Hopefully both of the leading candidates would get tested fair and square under that scenario prior to one of them winning. Whoever emerges from something like that I would feel confident could hold up well in the General Election also. The only thing inevitable - again if those numbers ended up being real - is that Edwards would cease to be in serious contention.

[Capn Sunshine]

23. Agree Tom

Hillary if she comes within 5% will claim a moral victory.

[antiimperialist]

2. I would say Clinton is alive and kicking

Obama won by a smaller margin that predicted, if this 4 pt. lead holds.

[Joe the Revelator]

6. NH was Hillary's firewall against an Obama victory in Iowa

Don't kid yourself, this was hers to lose.

[rinsd]

17. That was before a 3rd place in Iowa.

The NH firewall, still assumed she would be 2nd in Iowa.

Funny how the frame has changed from she's finished to well she was supposed to win so coming close doesn't matter.

[Joe the Revelator]

26. Who knows what we have before the actual votes come in?

I think his exit numbers look good for Obama (Change v Expirence percentages), but if we're going to have this conversation, we might as well talk about the what ifs.

[regnaD kciN]

32. No "funnier" than the notion...

...that coming in a "respectable" second when, a week ago, you were expected to easily win somehow constitutes a victory. :crazy:

[rinsd]

39. Except she wasn't expected to win easily a week ago.

Polling in NH even before Iowa showed a close race (Hillary by about 5% though there were some likely outliers(ARG, Suffolk) showing her with double digits leads). Almost all post Iowa polling showed an Obama lead of varying degrees.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

And who called it a victory?

Or do you just make this shit up as you go along?

[Auntie Bush]

41. Some people can always twist things around to suit their needs or wants.

[MollieBradford]

44. nope

not after the last two months of the media savaging her and pimping Obama.

[FrenchieCat]

7. Obama was polling 7 pts ahead before Hillary did her

sentimental moment. Maybe it worked? :shrug:

Even I felt sorry for her.

[Thrill]

14. She is suppose to wipe the floor with him in NH

Thats not good for her. If he beats you in small white states like that. What is going to happen in the more populated states with more minorities?

[MollieBradford]

45. spin spin spin

lol, she has had the most disgusting sexist angry irrational media beating for two months. You can spin all you want but if she isn't beat by 10 points tonight she won.
Just look at the media spin coming out of IA, that Edwards came in a strong 2nd...bullshit.

[Thrill]

47. If she doesn't lose by 10 she won?

Are you dumb or just stupid?

[truebrit71]

3. Hmmm...interesting...up until Iowa what were those numbers?

iirc HRC was significantly ahead, no?

[BringBigDogBack]

5. Oui

[regnaD kciN]

12. Hillary had a double-digit lead in N.H....

...in most pre-Iowa polls.

[truebrit71]

19. That;s what I thought...so any sort of Obama win would be a MASSIVE swing his way...

...VERY cool...

[MollieBradford]

46. not at all

half of his votes are from independents. From here on in independents are not going to have this kind of say. This is still a democratic primary and how democrats vote matters more than how many independents Obama can pull in in the first two states.

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. Before Iowa Clinton was the odds on strong favorite

That would still not be true with this type of result, but she will have regained footing to make a real race of it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Depends On Which Poll

I don't think I would be disingenuous by asserting the MSM said she was going to get blown out...

[KennedyGuy]

24. not disingenuous at all...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. The MSM Was Alluding To Double Digit Leads

~

[Occam Bandage]

4. Looks like Clinton's got some life in her.

[jefferson_dem]

8. I'll take it.

Obama's (fairly) comfortably ahead. ...and Romney looks dead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Hard To Trust Raw Numbers

But you can't compare them with raw numbers from IA because IA results were affected by second choice votes...

[Mass]

10. We can expect another comback kid story if these numbers are correct.

[regnaD kciN]

25. Dubious...

Considering she was ahead or tied in most N.H. polls as late as three days ago, she's going to have to win outright to be able to spin this one.

If these numbers hold up, though, I think it's become a two-candidate race. For Edwards, not only coming in third, but losing second place to HRC by a more than 2-1 margin, may well doom his campaign.

[emilyg]

33. Why is he not doing better?

[usregimechange]

13. We will all know in hours... chill

[FreeState]

15. Is NH a winner takes all state? n/t

[robbedvoter]

20. So far, they all are, as far as I know.

[robbedvoter]

27. I am extatic to see Ghouliani last - behind Rue Paul....

[FreeState]

36. Im not to sure about that....

"Jan. 8: New Hampshire will have 12 delegates after the RNC penalty. The state has 30 delegates to the Democratic convention. Delegates are awarded proportionally."

http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/07/do-not-pub-iowa-new-hampshire-come-first-but-delegate-contribution-is-small/


Unless Im reading that wrong...

[regnaD kciN]

35. I don't think so...

Very few states have primaries that don't apportion delegates by percentage.

[FreeState]

37. I think your right....

http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/07/do-not-pub-iowa-new-hampshire-come-first-but-delegate-contribution-is-small/

[indimuse]

21. omg...

:wow::wow::wow::wow:

[Skip Intro]

22. I can live with that, hope it tightens -

[Jackpine Radical]

28. Like dey useta say in da 'Nam,

"Don't mean nuthin'."

Wayyyy too early. These numbers will probly be very unstable.

Thnk of Iowa, when for most of the night Obama was ony a point or 2 ahead of Edwards, theen shot up several points at the end when they got the major pop centers counted.

I suspect the order here is right (Obama-Hill-Edwards), but the relative distances will probably be all over the place for a while.

[calteacherguy]

29. It's over for Edwards then. Both Hillary and Obama seem to be bleeding support from him. nt

[emilyg]

30. Good for Clinton!

[itsrobert]

34. The fix is in. Hillary is going to win it

n/t

[pleah]

38. In just now 6% in tie for Clinton and Obama. 36%

5,000+ for each John Edwards 17% 2,000+votes

[annie1]

40. that would be so fucking awesome.

[pleah]

42. 9% in Clinton 38% Obama 36% Edwards still at 17%

[robbedvoter]

43. Adding exit polls issues:

More numbers, these from MSNBC...

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