Hillary 40% Obama 35% 13% precincts in

[Herman Munster]

[debatepro]

1. blah

independents breaking for hillary?

[FreeState]

2. If the growing gap continues past 40% Ill call it for Clinton...

thats about where Obama took over in IA

[jgraz]

5. Um, that's not how election returns work.

The exit polls are much more accurate than early returns.

[FreeState]

6. At about 40% you can generally see what is most likely to happen

by then you have more statistics of actual returns that you can play with the numbers. Right now she leads by almost 2000 votes... if that lead (5%) continues for another 20%+ it would be hard to recover IMO.

I have not seen any real exit polls - just people talking about them and so called leaks which I dont trust.

[jgraz]

8. What are you basing this on?

Most of the early returns are from rural precincts. Demographics can cause huge swings as returns come in.

[FreeState]

9. Im basing it purely on past elections that I have followed closely

Its very difficult for any candidate behind by 5% to make it up after a certain percentage of votes in the right county's have been counted. Its only 25% now and her lead keeps growing - that is not a good sign for Obama for the major cities that are leaning Clinton - now its all up to the counties - were there are way less people and are more prone to vote higher GOP.

I know its my own observation - but I've been following politics a long time and I have only been wrong on this once.

But keep in mind she has to keep gaining % points at 40% for that to work,

[FreeState]

10. See :) n/t

[Cameron27]

3. Yea!

[1corona4u]

4. GO HILLARY!!!

[Rockholm]

7. Matthews: If Obama wins by 5 points or more....

Blah, friggin' blah. What if Hillary WINS by that many points. So much for even handedness.

WHAT ABOUT JOHN EDWARDS. Why won't they talk about him?