Ya know, most of the polls were wrong, but the exit polls were right

[Orangepeel]

Just a reminder for people who may be thinking of attributing Clinton's win to fixed voting machines in NH. In this case, the exit polls accurately predicted the result.

[Captain Hilts]

1. Black candidates traditionally get fewer votes than polling pts. She has the opposite pattern. nt

[Orangepeel]

9. there are myriad likely reasons the polls were wrong

It could be latent racism. It could be sympathy. It could be polling models overestimating the turnout of Independents and the likelihood of them voting Democratic. It could be low youth turnout. It could be a multitude of other things that I didn't list.

And, I'm certainly not defending voting machines without paper ballots, which should never be allowed.

But it wasn't due (at least in any large part) to fixed voting machines. If it were, the exit polls would mirror the pre-election day polls instead of the actual result.

[Captain Hilts]

11. People will say they're voting for the black candidate because they don't want the pollster to think

they're racists. Then they go in the booth and pull for the white candidate.

And HRC has always gotten more votes than polling points. Always.

[doublethink]

13. It's called EXIT polling because they ask the question .......

or questions ... AFTER THEY VOTE, AND NOT BEFORE. Far as I'm concerned it should only be one question .. who did you vote for? The rest is spin. Keep that in mind. Peace. :smoke:

[still_one]

2. The reason many were taken a back by the results is they were not figuring in the undecided /nt

[SHRED]

3. Well...Diebold does like corporate oriented candidates

New Hampshire Primary - ALL Diebold, ALL the Time
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0801/S00057.htm


GO EDWARDS!!!

[doublethink]

4. Gotta link? EXIT polls I saw showed Obama winning by bout 5%

On the actual vote .... not the spin? Just curious. Peace.

[Orangepeel]

10. Link to actual vote results

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914

The networks are using the exit polls results to give demos and such
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM

[doublethink]

12. Thanks ..... but not what I was looking for.

The second link of yours is like the 'moral vote' from 2004 .. all spin. Tells me nothing on the simple question of WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR TONIGHT?. One Exit Poll Question ..... not all the spin ..... It's not that complicated. One Exit poll question .... all that other stuff is like 'flack being thrown up at you over enemy lines' ..... been there done that. Peace.

[Orangepeel]

14. Huh. I link to the exit poll results from NH.

The data is in a table, so it doesn't post correctly, but this is what is is by gender (sample size of 1955).

Vote by Gender
Biden
Clinton
Dodd
Edwards
Gravel
Kucinich
Obama
Richardson
Male (43%) 0% 29% 0% 19% 0% 2% 40% 6%
Female (57%) 0% 46% 0% 15% 0% 1% 34% 3%

The math works out to a 39% to 37% Clinton win.

[doublethink]

15. Self delete .... there is one date on that link that says ....

Jan 5th 2008 and another that says Jan 8th ... so I have no way of knowing if it was an actual exit poll. Look above the Jan 8 date and it says "last updated Jan 5th" .... hey my computer automatically updates that kinda stuff when I log in and up-date it ... why shouldn't theirs? Peace.

[Orangepeel]

16. self delete, too

My all caps and extra exclamation points aren't funny in isolation!

:D

I don't know what was updated January 5. The page frame, probably. The date given on the data is January 8 and they say it is an exit poll.

Given that the numbers are very, very close to the actual numbers, if you think it was posted on January 5, I'd suggest you get a screen shot.

[doublethink]

17. Glad you caught that too .....

I du-know ? luv ya just the same ! Okay screen shot ! Got it. ;) Peace.

[Renew Deal]

5. I don't think there are voting machines in NH

That's why they have to order ballots.

[K Gardner]

7. Yeah, ballots that go into optical scanners.

[sandnsea]

8. They use tabulators

To count the opti-scan ballots. Those can be messed with too. But elections are usually stolen through voter suppression, not machine manipulation anyway.

[K Gardner]

6. Clintons own internal polls showed her behind.. today. ?? Just sayin.