Obamamites, remember 6 months ago

[ButterflyBlood]

Remember the media calling Hillary invincible, remember her massive leads in the polls. Remember how hopeless it looked then.

We're better off now than we were then. We did the impossible before and we can do it again.

We got Nevada and South Carolina coming up. The culinary union + blacks. We've got our supporters realizing we can't take victory for granted. We've still got a boost in fundraising.

It's going to a long bloody fight from here on out. In fact, I doubt it'll even be over on Feb. 5. But we're still in it.

[Colobo]

1. Man... the Clintons are on full force now...

Expect loses in NV and SC... I love Barack, brother. I do. I admire him deeply and I'm almost in tears typing this... but we're done.

[origin1286]

2. Er what?

Chicken little? Is that you?

[Joe the Revelator]

3. You moving away much to quickly

I didn't think your support was that weak.

Shape up, or ship out.

[AX10]

4. I assure you that we are not taking this small win for granted.

We are aware of the fight ahead. Unlike many Obama supporters who saw victory as a sure thing after just a single win, we in the Clinton camp understand that one must win the entire thing.

edit: All blacks are not going to vote for Obama just as all women are not going to vote for Hillary.

[debatepro]

6. nominating

hillary is a sure fire way of killing democrats down the ticket.

Obama is bringing new people (young folks, independents, and republicans) into the democratic fold. All those people who are voting for hillary and edwards will vote for obama... can you say the reverse for new obama supporters and the other candidates.

[Cha]

13. Most Obama supporters

I talked to were taking nothing for granted. I don't know what gets into people who think "sure thing"..just because the polls said so.

There's no reason to give up. Especially when my motto is Never Give Up.

[ButterflyBlood]

5. That's not the attitude we need!

Were the Hillary supporters acting like this after Iowa?

[Cha]

15. No, they went on the

offense.

[JI7]

7. Obama won Iowa by large amount and came a very close 2nd in NH

and you are giving up ?

[Cha]

9. I do not believe you!

You'll feel better tomorrow..Obama's not giving up..not at all.

[jlake]

12. Katz, as much as I disagree with you on Obama - Ya'll are not out.....keep fighting!

[Egnever]

16. Woa katz

Slow down kid. We will likely lose NV Hillary support has always been strong here. We have got a long way to go and as clintons win tonight should show you, anything can happen.

I lay this clinton turn around directly at the feat of the choking up event yesterday. It was a brilliant move by clinton as it rehumanized her and it got national coverage. The women broke heavily for her tonight and it made the difference.

We have a tough fight ahead of us but we arent even close to out. I think this thing may go all the way to convention. Theres a lot of variables at play in this one and theres no telling how it will look in the end. Obama is a great candidate and he does inspire people.

I think a lot of what happens depends on what John does, He clearly doesnt have a shot at this thing but it doesnt lok like he will concede but if he does we will have to wait and see where that support shakes out. If he drops and it goes obamas way we go back to blow outs. If it breaks hillary's way we are done if its evenly split we go to convention.

I think john is now in the most powerful position he will ever be in in this race and I would bet dollars to doughnuts people from both the clinton and the obama camps are now courting him heavily.

The point is this thing aint close to over yet chin up! Give the hillary folks their due tonight they earned it but pick back up tomorrow and keep up the fight. I know I cant wait to caucus Jan 19th and i sure as hell aint throwing in the towel.

[Catherine Vincent]

32. Aww, Katz!

Don't give up!

[DivorcingNeo]

8. That's right!

Let's move on and move forward!!!

I'm ready to join the fight.

Don't believe the hype!!

[TeamJordan23]

10. It's not going to be easy, but if someone can do it, it is Obama. nm

[Jersey Devil]

11. Nevada? What, maybe 12 people live there?

Since when has Nevada been significant in the nomination process. Do you seriously think people in NY, NJ, California, etc., give a flying fork what some chef's union does in Nevada?

[ButterflyBlood]

17. How many people live in Iowa and NH?

The momentum's what matters, not the nummbers.

[Jersey Devil]

19. Yeah, but my understanding is that Nev had no primary and no real caucus

As I understand it the deal in Nevada is that if the culinary union supports you then the party supports you and you get the "caucus" vote, which is essentially a union meeting.

I doubt anyone would give that serious attention.

[ButterflyBlood]

20. No, Nevada's caucus is like Iowa's

The union endorsement is held so important because it makes up 42% of caucus-goers.

[Jersey Devil]

22. Well, that's what I said, or so I thought

The caucus is essentially a union meeting. And in an open caucus where everyone knows who you are voting for I am supposed to believe that those 42% are going to tell their union leaders to go fork off, that they are voting for someone the union doesn't support?

[ButterflyBlood]

25. 42% is far from a majority

It's enough to be a huge factor, but not a majority. The caucus is far from simply a union meeting.

Also note the other state before Super Tuesday is South Carolina, where at least 50% of the electorate is black.

[sandnsea]

23. I think he'll do better in a caucus

I don't think it's as easy to say one thing and do another.

[sandnsea]

14. We don't have the culinary union anymore

and winning black votes is not going to be praised like women turning out for Hillary. Minority votes are always marginalized. Not to mention, if you go read some of what black politicians are saying in the south, it ain't very inspiring for Obama.

People need to know what we're up against. It's not looking good.

[Egnever]

18. wow you too?

[sandnsea]

21. I can't find the numbers

We've got delegates and super-delegates. Hillary has already got a boatload of super-delegates. Obama needed to steamroll in order to shame her out of the race. I don't see that happening now. Even if he took it all the way to the convention, she's got the super-delegates. I hate it, I really wanted something different for this country than more triangulating Clintonism. But I just can't see where the delegates are going to come from.

[ButterflyBlood]

26. You need 2,025 delegates to clinch the nomination

Superdelegates included Clinton has 183.

[sandnsea]

27. You think they won't all go for her?

I don't think they'll have the guts to stand against her. Where the hell have they been so far?

[ButterflyBlood]

29. The point is the superdelegates alone don't give it to her

Not even close. This race will be won outright before the convention, I have no doubt of that.

[sandnsea]

31. If he does well in Nevada

Maybe he can make the turn in SC. But if he doesn't start convincing voters that white people will vote for him, I don't see him getting enough states to offset the super-delegates. That's what I mean.

[ButterflyBlood]

33. Clinton has 159 superdelegates, Obama has 53

That's a 106 difference. Hardly unsurmountable.

Obviously if Obama doesn't win any states he won't overcome Hillary, but the superdelegates won't make the difference, it'll be the results.

[Egnever]

28. Yes but that support is soft

they were already making noises about bailing on her. Those are not set in stone and if Obama keeps inspiring people and turnout for him with independents remains high I think they will easily switch.

Theres a long way to go still you know that, and if hillary can cry and turn an outcome in a day anything is still possible.

[sandnsea]

30. I hope so, the vote was 57% women

I don't even know what that means myself, but it sure sounds wacky. Maybe the tears played differently on the local media than it did nationally. But nobody is going to want to criticize her anymore either, so I don't know how you overcome that. It's ridiculous. And I feel like a woman who's watching "feminine wiles" win instead of strength and intelligence and integrity.

[Cha]

24. Not me! READ this that

the nashuaadvocate brought over..
~snip~
A Post-Mortem: Five Reasons Barack Obama Lost the New Hampshire Primary

(Hint: None of the Reasons Were His Fault)

Here are the top five reasons Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, 39% to 37%. You'll notice none of these reasons have anything to do with Obama's viability or skill as a political candidate.

1. John Edwards. Before it's all said and done tonight, 60,000+ voters in New Hampshire will have cast ballots for one of three candidates: John Edwards, Bill Richardson, and Dennis Kucinich. The vast majority of these votes will have gone to Edwards, the most progressive candidate in the race except for Kucinich (whose voters account, incidentally, for only about 3,000 of those 60,000 votes). Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama in New Hampshire by about 6,000 votes. Does anyone in America doubt that without Edwards, Richardson, and Kucinich in the race, those 60,000 almost-entirely-progressive voters would have favored Obama over Clinton by a wide enough margin to give Obama a win in New Hampshire? No, no one doubts that--but because Edwards finished with a disappointing (yet not entirely unpredictable, given previous polls) 17% in New Hampshire, no one thinks to point out that in a two-person race Obama would have actually (as those same polls once predicted) have blown Hillary's doors off in the Granite State. Today's result was devastating for Edwards; he was hoping for a Hillary loss, such that he could soldier on, watch Hillary drop out, and go into hand-to-hand combat mode with Obama. The joke, of course, is on Edwards, and those of us who support him, as his continued presence in the presidential race only ensures that he'll never see his best-case scenario materialize. John Edwards has become the biggest obstacle to John Edwards' own ambitions--strategically speaking--which is what tells me, sadly, that it's time for him to drop out of the race. The penalty for all of us, if he fails to do so, is the eminently beatable Hillary Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008.

2. The media. Nothing is worse for a candidate than a premature coronation, and that's what the media saddled Obama with yesterday. Undoubtedly, the media effectively calling the race for Obama yesterday--all but saying to America that the only issue left was how much he'd win by--depressed turnout for Obama while raising it for Clinton. Obama voters had every reason to believe, because they'd been told this by every poll and every pundit, that Obama no longer needed their vote. And Clinton supporters knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that their preferred choice needed them as never before. Obama's surrogates, particularly Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, made a last-ditch effort today, on the airwaves of New England, to emphasize to Obama voters that their vote was still desperately needed. That message was too little, too late, and as it turns out the Obama bump from his Iowa victory was, if anything, too big. So big the media salivation turned into overreaction, which turned into smugness and complacency among precisely those voters Obama's Iowa bump should have energized. As with the John Edwards effect, there's an undeniable irony here--almost a paradox--in that it was Obama's very success in Iowa (where he outpolled Hillary by 9%; compare that to Hillary's squeaker of a win tonight <2%>) that cost him New Hampshire. Yet, once again, was this Obama's fault? No. His only failure was not realizing that the national media was, and is, and always will be, more powerful than any single campaign's GOTV machine.

More~
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4005987

[gdaerin]

34. Yes! I think Obama's better off right underneath the radar anyway