"They were all not just wrong, but wildly wrong. But only for the Clinton/Obama race."

[peoli]

Check out the Brad Blog story


Those Diebold op-scan machines are the exact same ones that were hacked in the HBO documentary, Hacking Democracy. See the previous report, as I recommend, which also includes a video of that hack, and footage of the guy who runs LHS Associates.

That said, the the pre-election pollster's numbers (NOTE: that's not Exit Polls, but Pre-Election Polls!) were dead-on, for the most part, on the Republican side, as well as on the Democratic side. Except in the do-or-die (for Hillary) Clinton v. Obama race. I'm watching MSNBC right now, and they all seem to agree that the results, for the moment, defy explanation.

As you'll note, the numbers in Zogby's latest polls, for all but Clinton and Obama, seem to have been dead-on the money for both the Republicans and Democrats. Edwards, for example, was polled at 17% in Zogby's poll, and he received exactly 17% in the MSNB numbers, with 63% of precincts reporting. So are we to believe that only those voters who preferred Obama previously, decided to change to Hillary at the last minute? I suppose so.

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5530

[PretzelWarrior]

1. K and R. this is EXACTLY what I"m thinking

something doesn't add up. THe sad part is unlike 2004, we won't have a whole bunch of Democrats joining together. You'll actually have many Democrats making the same empty headed excuses and bullying comments the repukes made back then.

The fascists have won, it seems.

[Zueda]

32. Edwards should call for a recount.

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. Haven't paid attention to that guy, was he part of "the wave"?

By the tone of that I would guess that he was.

[AmBlue]

15. Um, Bradblog...

...is a widely known and read internet blogger/reporter and authority on election integrity. He watches elections all over the country and reports on issues to do with elections as they appear in the daily news cycle. Whether Brad is part of "the wave" is not the point. It's the integrity of elections.

What he's saying is it's odd that the polling was off so dramatically, but only for one race. It doesn't prove anything, but points to an unusually large disparity between the polls and the election.

[BradBlog]

27. I don't know what "the wave" is...

...so I'm probably not a part of it.

If it has something to do with Obama, no, I'm not a supporter of his, or of anyone's at this time. Other than a supporter of the VOTERS.

[The_Casual_Observer]

33. Pleased to meet you!

[Zueda]

3. If this happened in Mexico or Pakistan there would be a lot of raised eyebrows here. nt

[Lucinda]

4. They were wrong because they gave the indy vote too much weight.

The exit polling showed it too close to call...and the election results support the exit polls. Not complicated.

[DUyellow]

9. yup, they didn't want to get it wront twice.

[Lucinda]

36. Yup.

[BradBlog]

24. Where's your DATA for that???

I'd love to see your Exit Poll DATA that you've decided tells you that. Where is it? And was it weighted to match the results after the election? Or was it the raw data?

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5530

[Lucinda]

35. As far as the exit polling goes...

It was all over the news outlets once the polls closed. Did you watch the coverage?

Regarding the actual numbers for each of them with registered Dems, you can go to any of the aggregate poll locations and look at the data for the past three days. You'll find in most cases that the registered Dem votes were extremely close, and even showed Clinton winning in several instances. That didn't get discussed because everyone assumed the indy vote would be huge.

If I remember correctly, Obama only won registered Dems in Iowa by 1% once all the numbers were in. It was the indy vote that gave him the win in Iowa.

An example or two:

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/NH/NHPZ080107.pdf < Page 1 of the PDF has it in anecdotal info under the big table. And on page 2 in the table on the top of the page - > Dems: Clinton 36 - Obama 30. Obama out polled her with Indys 43- 16, but that didn't pan out. The indy votes were factored in, but didn't materialize.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/primary2008_demprim10708.pdf
Page six. Top table. Obama 36 - Clinton 35 - Registered Dems. The indy was 45 Obama - 24 Hillary (listed as registered undeclared) Indys put him ahead in the poll totals...only 1% separated them in the registered Dem people polled.

[mhatrw]

40. Or were the exit polls match to the later reported results like they were in 2004?

[jbnow]

48. Yes, we got only adjusted exit polls. No raw data

was allowed to be released after all the trouble it caused in 2004.

And it was the same firm as it was in 2004

[K Gardner]

5. K&R .. thanks. By tomorrow, the MSM will have found a way to

splain all this away. Just like they did in 2000, 2004... On MSNBC, they're still looking at exit polls and scratching their heads.

[RufusTFirefly]

13. Here's the MSM storyline that explains everything

Despite conventional wisdom that suggested Clinton's Choking Up^© would actually lose her votes, it resulted in a Surge^© of Clinton voters.

Never mind the IWR and Kyl-Lieberman, the corporate donors, the android-like personality and the shameless triangulation. This is poisonal!

[caligirl]

6. If exit polls matched the outcome its likely an honest outcome, but i wondered too.

[mhatrw]

41. We never get the see the raw exit poll data.

Who took the exit polls? Where did they take them? Did they adjust them for results?

The CNN exit poll says that 44% of the voters in the NH Dem primary ID'd themselves as independents, but that these voters went for Obama 41% to 31%, while Hillary won 45% to 34% among the 54% of the voters who ID'd themselves as Dems. This is WAY off any and all pre-primary polls.

[Samantha]

7. I have no candidate in this race

This entire evening does not pass the smell test.

[cindyw]

8. Maybe it was a Republican test run for cheating.

:tinfoilhat:

Follow my tin foil hat theory here. Republicans want to see if they can swing an election 11 points and will people accept it. Looks like they will. So in November they now know that they can do it and point to this primary and say to Dems, 'well you accepted that one!"

I mean it would be a win/win for them. If the cheating is caught it is blamed on Hillary. If it's not, tey know they can win in November.

You people need to realize we just lost the election. You all just don't see it yet.

[kansasblue]

12. Dead on!

Coming in the fall of 2008 -- 11 point swing. That should do it. All you have to do is whip up some 'reason' for the swing and you have 4 more years of Republicans.

[rudy23]

18. That's why this needs to be questioned, no matter who it would benefit

elections cannot be that far off from the polls without investigation.

[99th_Monkey]

23. This would fit with that Rethugs LOVE Hillary as Dem nominee.. check out this article

Two birds with one Diebold stone. Test a wild election swing (which they can point to later and say, "well, it happened
in NH with the Democrats") + helping insure they get the Dem nominee THEY want, one they know they can "work well with" win
or lose in the General.

Rethugs were "confused and depressed" about Hillary's supposed demise as the likely Dem nominee.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_080108_conservative_right_c.htm

[loudsue]

26. Yep. Same shit different cycle. Until ALL ....EACH & EVERY person who

gives a damn about our country starts lobbying their state legislatures to STOP this black box voting, we're going to keep on having our elections programmed by the sleezy insiders who are ruining our country.

It's NOT bush. It's NOT Cheney. It's CERTAINLY NOT the voters!!! IT'S THE FUCKING VOTING MACHINES that are ruining our Democracy.

[RuleOfNah]

37. How about a recount test run?

Fight test run with test run!

[moodforaday]

57. That's a good theory

but I have a different one. It's not a R vs. D thing, because if it were, you would have seen Dem leaders address the e-voting issue afetr 2004. But Dem leaders largely couldn't care less, which means they are okay with Diebold counting votes. Which means that IF there is any foul play, Reps and Dems are both playing it all the way.

[Usrename]

60. Yep, and there is a built-in excuse already being floated in the MSM.

The new meme is that: "People won't tell pollsters the truth, that they won't vote for a black man."

[laconicsax]

10. What do the exit polls say?

If the exit polls are way off from the official results, then there's an problem.

[Zueda]

19. I want to see if there is a discrepancy between the hand-counted and the diebold-counted votes.

[99th_Monkey]

25. It sounds like Brad and Bev are going to be digging for those numbers.

good for them. that really will tell all.

[AtomicKitten]

49. Obama won the hand-counts.

http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS

[jbnow]

50. Hand counts are rural and small towns. What are

the odds that Obama would win the rural areas and small towns...
and lose the urban areas?

Serious question. I don't mean to judge people but in my state rural areas tend to go with established candidate and tend to have more racial bias. Urban areas are the opposite. Is New Hampshire different?

I lived in small towns and cities, don't mean to be rude to either.

[mhatrw]

42. After what happened in 2004, why should we believe exit polls?

[Emillereid]

11. I hate to say it but I wouldn't put it past someone in the Clinton campaign.

One of the most irksome things about their campaign is that they project an attitude of entitlement -- like they own the party or something. Something stinks. These kinds of polls should be accurate.

[emlev]

14. K&R! Folks, please DIGG this story! n/t

[stillcool]

17. done....

:kick:

[rudy23]

16. Some group that's not tied to a candidate needs to challenge this--a candidate can't do it

They can't risk looking like a whiner.

Besided, this isn't about the candidates, it's about the voters--something needs to be checked out further here!

[kansasblue]

21. Howard Dean ? nt

[kster]

30. Heres a thought...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2637266

[BradBlog]

31. Bullshit...

"They can't risk looking like a whiner."

Can they risk looking like they give a damn about democracy and ensuring that every damn vote is counted and counted correctly?

Don't play into that bullshit mindset. LOSERS *don't* challenge elections when there are questions about whether they are legitimate or not. Period.

[rudy23]

38. Hey, I agree with you, that's unfortunately the way they think.

I would love to see Obama prove me wrong.

[Tom Rinaldo]

47. Why not RFK Jr.? He did a great investigation for Rolling Stone n/t

[jbnow]

51. That would be good. He supports Clinton so

it wouldn't look like a sore loser thing.

Because it is very strange

[stillcool]

20. Hillary cried...

turned the whole thing around!

[Zueda]

22. No. That had to be a wash. nt

[jackson_dem]

28. It is obvious. The special variable is race in Hillary/Obama

The Republicans are all white so it was not a factor. Edwards had no chance of winning so racists who wanted to stop Obama would not go to him. They had only one choice, Hillary.

[jbnow]

52. Are racists more likely

to live in cities than in rural areas? Because Obama won the rural and small towns, the hand count areas. He lost the cities diebold areas.

But if the racists live in cities in New Hampshire you could be right

[ben_meyers]

29. If any of this is true Obama needs to call for a recount and

investigation. He needs to show now that he has the guts to stand up to vote rigging or they will get him next November if he gets the nomination. The other side must be told that they can't get away with this.

[peoli]

34. "Hillary's internals showed her losing by 11%"

and she wins by 3%?

[Tom Rinaldo]

43. If the Clintons were guilty of arranging to steal an election

they would have also arranged for their "internals" to show that she was surging toward a victory. That is the story line they would have leaked to prepare people for her later victory. They wouldn't be supplying folks like you with the ammunition you need to feel paranoid.

I am fed up with all the presumptions that Hillary is Richard Nixon in drag. And even Nixon didn't steal his elections.

[LSK]

39. flashbacks to 2004

Not enough ballots.

The wrong candidate won and nobody can explain why.

Dejay voo all over again.

[Perry Logan]

44. Furthermore, none of the Obama people saw this coming. Are they not alert?

[moodforaday]

58. Were Kerry's people alert?

Did they not see "it" coming, either?

The whole game is rigged. The media picked their candidate, the corporations picked their candidate, and heck, even Repubs picked their favorite Dem candidate. How could NH *not* go to HRC?

[LostinVA]

45. Shameful

[Evergreen Emerald]

46. Because the right wing press HAS to be correct all the time

And they can't be wrong.

What a pitiful bunch of crap. When Clinton looses one state, America has spoken. When Clinton wins one state, she stole the election.

[jbnow]

54. It's not that at all. Did you read this?

If it was Clinton 14 points ahead in internal polls (and way ahead in all polls) and then she lost the concern would be the same.

The polls were correct except for Clinton and Obama.

Obama won rural and small towns, the hand count districts. He lost large towns and urban areas where they use diebold. Does that make sense.

There has been huge concerns in NH about the new software. The known defects (admitted by the company) were not fixed before the vote. Accuracy was not tested. In other places the same machines/software failed testing and were banned even after the millions they spent on them.

Hillary didn't have to do it or know anything about it if there was a problem or rigging.

But November is coming.

[elixir]

53. I thought BO was relying on the indie/youth vote and they didn't pan out.

[riqster]

55. The point is, you cannot be sure

It's black-box generated numbers versus black-box generated numbers, all done by private concerns, mostly owned by Republicans.

People need to question ALL results from this paradigm, not just the ones they don't like.

[boston bean]

56. Again, hate to say it, but FOX News Exit Polling called it for Hillary 39-37. nt

[Meshuga]

62. CNN exit polls also had HRC as the winner last night. n/t

[ieoeja]

59. "Iron my shirt" and "she's faking those tears".

Last minute misogyny brought out last minute voters to repudiate it.

[Usrename]

61. Yeah, right, all fifty thousand of them.

:eyes:

[Kurovski]

63. K&R. (nt)