Will Nevada, because it is a caucus, be better for Hillary or for Obama?

[FrenchieCat]

Poll question: Will Nevada, because it is a caucus, be better for Hillary or for Obama?

Caucus seems more open and the 15% supporters have to choose.

Let me know what you think and why.

Nevada is important because of the long interval between Nevada and SC. OBama comes in 2nd in Nevada, and SC might go for Clinton.

[DiamondJay]

1. What I heard on TV

I have been watching the coverage for the last 4 hours, and they said that race may still be a barrier to Obama. People in polls may be less likely to profess their racial inclinations, and Hillary may have won on that some didn't want a black president. That didn't show at Iowa because caucuses are public, and people do not want to be perceived as racist. At the primaries, it is an election behind a curtain. I would rather such a scenario not be true because if Obama is nominated, we could hurt bad not just in the south, but around America. It also would show that progress hasn't gone to far on the racial front.

[Lucinda]

20. They are looking for a reason to explain how they screwed up

their predictions...and are blaming NH for it. It was a photo finish. NH voted for Obama. Just not enough of them.

[LVZ]

21. This is not the South - Las Vegas (70%) is "live and let live" - race in an unlikely factor here.

The truth is we have no idea who the caucus system favors because we have never had a "meaningful" caucus here before. Union endorsements will probably be important.

Nevada, at 2.5 million, is slightly less populated than Iowa. However, the consensus caucus turnout is only about 50,000, 1/4 that of Iowa. After the split Iowa/NH wins, Nevada's results have increased in importance. The turnout may be higher.

Nevadans tend to be more working-class and less educated than New Hampshire residents. If NH results are any indication, that favors Clinton.

OTOH, it is not clear how the larger minority population in Nevada will play out.

[fuzzy otter pop]

2. still stuck in the head to head mind set?????

[Colobo]

3. Obama won't win...

and I'm saying this with a lot of pain in my heart... I had hope... but race matters... it still matters...

[killbotfactory]

8. Obama didn't lose because of race

It was Clinton's to lose before the Iowa results, the pollsters just screwed up and miscalculated the post-Iowa bounce and raised everyones expectations.

If anything, it should tell you pundits don't know what the hell they are talking about. The race is up in the air.

[sandnsea]

13. Now now, wait a minute

I'm not sure that what didn't happen is the male vote went to McCain because they thought that race was closer. I think McCain won by a wider margin than he expected. Race may have played a small part, but look at how close it was. Obama did really well and if the pollsters hadn't gotten this so wrong, we'd be thrilled Obama got this close and would be calling it a win heading into Nevada.

Yes We Can!!!

[jackson_dem]

18. McCain won by as much as the polls were predicting

Only when it comes to Obama, and as a corollary Hillary, was there a wild swing. The polls were spot on for Edwards, who would not benefit from a "stop Obama" vote.

[sandnsea]

19. McCain did a few points better

A few points there, a few more older people, a few less younger, and pretty soon you lose. :(

[jackson_dem]

22. So did Romney

The margin of victory was about what was expected. The points they gained came from Huckabee, Giuliani, and Paul who all did worse than they polled.

[William769]

4. Going by the Lation support Hillary has in Neveda, I would say Hillary. NT

[Colobo]

5. My parents are black Latinos, and they laugh at the idea of voting

for a black man for president... sadly, they were always right.

[FrenchieCat]

7. Don't be so down, Katz.......

the loss was a small one, whatever the media attempts to sell you, and the Iowa win was giant.

Chin up!

Obama would not want to hear this "we can't" stuff! :pals:

[Colobo]

11. Obama and us want something...

Something America won't give him: a chance.

[FrenchieCat]

15. But you have been optimistic all of this time, without any votes being cast

and now, after Obama loses narrowly in a state that Hillary had been winning for I don't know how long, and which she campaigned in with her husband so many times.....you can't feel this dejected. That is not good if you are an example of Obama's base! :(

[Egnever]

16. holly crap

listen to frenchie she is wise. Our boy inspires he will continue to do so. Did you watch the victory/consecion speeches? the crowd at Obamas was fired up hillaries was falling asleep on a night when they WON! He gains voters every time he speaks and he will be speaking a lot. Hillary played the women like a fidle this time intentionaly or not. She bacame a human figure again yesterday and it worked well for her.

She cant cry every week though and we will be back in the cats seat soon enough. NV will be tough for us again but after that we will pick right back up. Dont despair from on 3 point loss we did well!

We can still win this thing.

YES WE CAN!

[Little Star]

17. Katz, Obama already broke a hugh barrier and this thing is

wide open. Obama and Hillary both broke barriers. Never give up. I personally want them both, prez &vp. :thumbsup:

[Egnever]

6. I think hill will win here

But it wont have anything to do with the caucus system. She has just always been strong here.


I think we still win SC though and that gives us the momentum back going into feb 5th.

[FrenchieCat]

9. That's what I think too.

[Egnever]

14. Thats cause your a smart cookie :)

:grouphug:

[K Gardner]

10. We need to wait and see what the CW Union does. Sucks that they might

stick with HRC because she managed to eek out a small victory. Richardson is going to pull votes from somebody in NV. I don't see Hillary taking NV. I certainly don't see her taking SC (blacks in the south are going to be plenty pissed..I'm not going to elaborate on that a lot right now). But if people are correct about the caucus being transparent,ergo more likely to make people stay with their 1st choice then yes, it will help Barack depending on how well he can ENERGIZE his supporters.

I think it is tremendously important that he gets on the ground there asap. Let's not forget that the Clinton Machine is going into overdrive tomorrow to begin further deconstruction of an Obama Presidency.. they had a close call tonight. They don't want another one.

[frankenforpres]

12. will Richardson get 3rd??? nt