Real Reason(s) Hillary Won NH

[JCMach1]

First and foremost she is a tough campaigner on the stump. This was clearly the case in her first Senate election as well where she worked her a$$ off to take as many votes as she could in upstate NY. We may have laughed at her ENDLESS Q&A sessions and 'tears', but it worked. Meanwhile, Obama was throwing driveby love-ins across NH. She connected with people (especially women) over the last 48hrs of the campaign. I still think this election is about competency and NH was reflecting that mood. A significant amount of the 'change' vote went with McCain, not Obama (otherwise Obama would have won by at least 5% which was what even I was expecting). Also (diety forbid) anyone was paying attention to the debates where McCain and Hillary did VERY well.

On Edit: The Debate was a real factor just check the CNN exit poll ( http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM ) ... Clinton supporters believed the debate was much more important. Obama supporters were not so interested... She also won out in terms of 'feelings' about your candidate (that was a bit shocking to me). Also, Obama only won the Independents in NH by 10%. Hillary took 31%. Among Democrats only, Hillary won 43 to 32% for Obama.


Now, on to Nevada and SC... so far it's a draw.

[David Dunham]

1. She got tons of registered Dems to vote, offsetting Obama's independents

[William769]

2. She also took a piece of the pie of Independents.

[JCMach1]

3. See on edit the CNN exit poll...

[Jane Austin]

4. I kind of think that a lot of the independents believed the polls and thought

they need to help beat Romney and Huckabee more than Obama needed their votes.

[JCMach1]

5. Can't see that in the data- turnout was high and 'actually' Hillary took a decent

share of Independents herself. I don't think anyone would have had her as close as it actually was with them.

[Jane Austin]

6. Why would that show up in the data?

I mean didn't 45% of independents vote in the Republican primary?

[Thothmes]

7. The real reason

is more voters voted for Senator Clinton, then voted for either Senator Obama or John Edwards. Why they did is open to a wide variety of speculations.

[Tarc]

8. Sherlock Holmes, reincarnated

:eyes: