Intrade numbers just completely reversed themselves

[ruggerson]

2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 59.6 59.9 58.0 387976 +31.0
2008DEM.NOM.OBAMA
Barack Obama to be Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 38.1 39.4 38.1 272768 -32.6
2008DEM.NOM.EDWARDS
John Edwards to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 1.0 1.8 0.9 157687 -1.7

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[thoughtcrime1984]

1. Just goes to show how overreactionary people can be

myself included. I kept all of my money on Obama for President though.

[sjdnb]

3. Bet you're betting GB to be in the Superbowl, too.

Just ribbing ya ... I got the hubby an autographed Favre record TD framed photo for xMas.

[sjdnb]

2. Oh, good now we're looking to a bunch of 'gamblers' to

determine the fate of the country ...

[AndyTiedye]

7. I Wonder if Some People Are Buying "Insurance" on Intrade

We often see "If ___ wins, I'm moving to Canada (or wherever)".
ALL of the candidates in this election, in both parties, are sufficiently divisive to cause this reaction in a significant number of people.

But relocating to another country is very expensive in the best of times, which these aren't, because the dollar is in the toilet.
It seems likely that some of the activity on Intrade is not actually gambling, but insurance against a direly unacceptable outcome to the election.
They would bet on their worst-case candidate on Intrade, then if the worst happens, they have their Intrade winnings to finance their exodus.

I would not expect this to be much of a factor in the betting on the primaries, but it could be in the betting on the general election.

[ButterflyBlood]

8. Considering how many actually follow up on their promises to do so

I doubt that's the case.

[TwilightZone]

4. Intrade's numbers were even worse than the polls. Didn't they have Obama at 92% probability earlier?

The 92% was NH, of course, but we saw how well that worked out.

[ruggerson]

5. I think they were 60/40 Obama

before tonight - nationally.

You're right, someone could have made a boatload taking a flyer on NH.

[TwilightZone]

6. That would have been some gamble.

I think even Hillary thought she was going to lose tonight, so betting on her would have been a serious leap of faith.

[ButterflyBlood]

9. AKA, Obama is still doing better than he was pre-Iowa

and Hillary is lower than her all time high (roughly 75)

It's far from over.